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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,421
  • Nov 25, 2020 10:13am Nov 25, 2020 10:13am
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  • #9,422
  • Nov 25, 2020 10:21am Nov 25, 2020 10:21am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Be careful, I fee this might break out to the upside.
GBPUSD, long trade. it looks like the triangle is a wave 4. It's probably heading higher as wave 5. 1.34 can still provide short setup. Let's see how it plays out.
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  • #9,423
  • Nov 25, 2020 10:24am Nov 25, 2020 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Like you I was waiting for 1.1950 on EU. I went short after I saw it wasn't going to make it. I still prefer to see 1.1950. The upswing looks incomplete. {quote} ... {image}
I got stopped out at b/e on EU short trade. It seems 1.1950 and 1.20 are back on the menu as possible short setups.
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  • #9,424
  • Nov 25, 2020 10:47am Nov 25, 2020 10:47am
Fibonacci levels work well when you combine them with RN/ 0.5RN or S/R S/D zones. Here is an example on EURGBP. I had to cover my long trade when I noticed the rejection at Fib 0.5. But it was too late to take a short trade
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  • #9,425
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:01am Nov 25, 2020 11:01am
Quoting shahab8b
Fibonacci levels work well when you combine them with RN/ 0.5RN or S/R S/D zones. Here is an example on EURGBP. I had to cover my long trade when I noticed the rejection at Fib 0.5. But it was too late to take a short trade {image}
Similar story on EURNZD - spotted the 61.8 at 1.71 and the PA and took a hedge sell

Lower buys hit for BE now.

I was possibly too invested in NZDUSD 0.70 and took a small hit on it.
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  • #9,426
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:09am Nov 25, 2020 11:09am
Also spotted GBPAUD, GBPNZD and EURAUD both reversed at their 50%/61.8% and RN's

We just need more pairs of eyes are these are often really smooth pips compared to some of the more grindy majors like USDCHF is right now.

Very simple and smooth 100 pips.
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  • #9,427
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:10am Nov 25, 2020 11:10am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Similar story on EURNZD - spotted the 61.8 at 1.71 and the PA and took a hedge sell Lower buys hit for BE now. I was possibly too invested in NZDUSD 0.70 and took a small hit on it. {image}
NU 0.70 did provide a 45-50 pips drop. It served its purpose. The first touch is usually the best one. I usually take the 2nd touch if it is in the direction of the trend.
  • #9,428
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:12am Nov 25, 2020 11:12am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NU 0.70 did provide a 45-50 pips drop. It served its purpose. The first touch is usually the best one. I usually take the 2nd touch if it is in the direction of the trend.
Yes, no excuses here. There should not be any loss off 0.70 NU. It was poor trade management and bias.

I've noticed on the crosses being with trends are vital as they can go on for a long time. Sure it's exciting to try and be in at turns but those trend pullbacks keep delivering.
  • #9,429
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:18am Nov 25, 2020 11:18am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, no excuses here. There should not be any loss off 0.70 NU. It was poor trade management and bias.
Yea it happens. I think the next good level is 0.72, it has a good overhead supply zone.
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  • #9,430
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:34am Nov 25, 2020 11:34am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea it happens. I think the next good level is 0.72, it has a good overhead supply zone. {image}
NU is now at the top of a large broadening formation. I am short and adding. Here is the daily chart.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,431
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:46am Nov 25, 2020 11:46am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} NU is now at the top of a large broadening formation. I am short and adding here. here is the daily chart. {image}
Hi Al, I see what you mean. Your trading style is more relaxed. I am not comfortable with more than 20-30 pips DD. But on the other hand, I can sit on a trade with sl at b/e for days.
  • #9,432
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:49am Nov 25, 2020 11:49am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Al, I see what you mean. Your trading style is more relaxed. I am not comfortable with more than 20-30 pips DD. But on the other hand, I can sit on a trade with sl at b/e for days.
You donīt want to mess with near perfection. Your system is as close to Nirvana as you can get. Keep up the good work.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,433
  • Nov 25, 2020 11:53am Nov 25, 2020 11:53am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Al, I see what you mean. Your trading style is more relaxed. I am not comfortable with more than 20-30 pips DD. But on the other hand, I can sit on a trade with sl at b/e for days.
I am with you on that one. I have zero tolerance for DD. If a trade is in DD for more than one hour my grey hair starts to turn a shade lighter.
  • #9,434
  • Nov 25, 2020 12:05pm Nov 25, 2020 12:05pm
New SW trade: GU.
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #9,435
  • Nov 25, 2020 12:38pm Nov 25, 2020 12:38pm
AUDJPY has been good to me.

I should back up and say, this thread has been good to me. Big "ups" to Shahab8b and C-12 for their wisdom and trading talents.

As I previously stated, I have issues with drawing retracement levels, as I don't when is the appropriate time to draw them. That is, what constitutes a Swing High and what constitutes a Swing Low. But this is a thread that deals with confluence. And I noticed charts with the weekly pivot point on them. Accordingly, I decided to "play to my strengths" and focus on Supply/Demand Delta Zones and my "Market Maker Levels".

Yesterday's trade in the AUDJPY was a "Kick the Signal, Pay the Target trade".

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Today's trade:
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Confluence for me doesn't have anything to do with RNs, but I still owe much gratitude to this thread.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,436
  • Nov 25, 2020 1:55pm Nov 25, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting HiddenGap
AUDJPY has been good to me. I should back up and say, this thread has been good to me. Big "ups" to Shahab8b and C-12 for their wisdom and trading talents. As I previously stated, I have issues with drawing retracement levels, as I don't when is the appropriate time to draw them. That is, what constitutes a Swing High and what constitutes a Swing Low. But this is a thread that deals with confluence. And I noticed charts with the weekly pivot point on them. Accordingly, I decided to "play to my strengths" and focus on Supply/Demand Delta Zones and...
Good work HG, I see the setup and didn't take it.

It has been a grueller of day, not much action after the first couple of hours. And a real damp squib FOMC minutes.

Most of the setups I had in mind today fell flat or BE apart from a few nice running positions. Performer of the day being CHFJPY.

I can't see an obvious TP on this so I am going to sit on it.

AUDNZD - 1.05 might be starting to cook.
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  • #9,437
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:15pm Nov 25, 2020 2:15pm
Quoting C-12
{quote}AUDNZD - 1.05 might be starting to cook. {image} {image}
EURNZD 1.70 - Possible reload.

I think NZDUSD is stating to run out of gas but would think that pair has slightly more upside in the tank.

Gold - Added pullback to $1805
  • #9,438
  • Edited 3:35pm Nov 25, 2020 3:21pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Confluence for me doesn't have anything to do with RNs, but I still owe much gratitude to this thread.
You may wish to reconsider adding in the RN

So many setups I am missing it seems. Better alerting needed. That AJ was a nice trend pullback level. Even more clean than AUDUSD PA.
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  • #9,439
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:49pm Nov 25, 2020 3:49pm
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  • #9,440
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:24pm Nov 25, 2020 4:24pm
CADJPY, possible short setup
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