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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,281
  • Nov 24, 2020 1:52am Nov 24, 2020 1:52am
Quoting shad4u2
{quote} Thank You For encouraging us, I appreciate your effort towards learning here. I am also trying to trade with Price action but some how i am facing a issue regarding entering in a opposite direction trade some time price reach the S/R zone and does not react and push more higher/Lower some time price turn before S/R zone and push continue in other direction, we learn here trade with trend but when trend is confirmed it too late to get in the trade if some how we enter with trend price consolidate after moving in trend direction. I saw you...
Good to see some people looking to learn. The S/R levels i have been taking had confluence of either 0.5RN or fibs and ideally both. Plus we already know targets were the opposing RN.

Also same for the moves off 1.19 and 1.18 RN were both in SD zones and located above and below key swing highs/lows on the chart. 1.18 had 61.8 present.

It does often seem that every RN on the chart is a trade and that's really not the case. There has to be multiple reasons to take setup. Confluence builds confidence.
  • #9,282
  • Nov 24, 2020 2:17am Nov 24, 2020 2:17am
USDJPY - Strong impulse move into the 50% and now moving back down. 1.04 lines up with 61.8
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  • #9,283
  • Nov 24, 2020 2:30am Nov 24, 2020 2:30am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes it seems quite possible yesterday's moves were just a stop collection on the way to a move higher, but GBPUSD has reached D1/H4 supply which normally would offer a bigger reaction than 100 points. It can certainly retest 1.34 again as that level didn't quite get hit. Same with 1.35. So I can see it going quite higher but should can still get something off these intraday levels. I noticed AUDUSD and NZDUSD ripped higher overnight, but they may well just been seeking out a final leg up to 0.74/0.70 which are the huge levels of interest....
True. Gu has some Supply zone up there.

But my expectation is that will be broken due to multiple touches. So the supply zone is getting weaker

IMO
Le$$ I$ More
  • #9,284
  • Edited 5:14am Nov 24, 2020 2:52am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} True. Gu has some Supply zone up there. But my expectation is that will be broken due to multiple touches. So the supply zone is getting weaker IMO
Can't argue with that. I should have been buying GU and EU (more) yesterday at those nice retracement levels. 61.8 and RN's.

This is where we see big fast moves, adrenaline and bias kicks in and we end up not taking the good mechanical setup offered on the chart.

Also should be taking full or partials off the table at opposing levels. I left a big chunk of money on the table trying to hold onto some of yesterday's sell moves.
  • #9,285
  • Edited 4:03am Nov 24, 2020 3:37am | Edited 4:03am
This was a fish that got away. Yes, I did take it but exit was incorrect.

In hindsight the ugly bearish looking PA is not really important as it's purely old data based upon yesterday's confluence setup off 1.19.

The H4 divergence would have been established after the low formed but would be a clear reason not to exit so early or consider opposing setup at 1.1850.
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  • #9,286
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:33am Nov 24, 2020 4:33am
EURJPY - TP1 arriving at 124.

EURNZD 1.70 and NZDUSD 0.70 at BRNs. AUDNZD also hit 1.05

NZDJPY 73.0
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  • #9,287
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:41am Nov 24, 2020 4:41am
GBPUSD, possible short setup @ 1.34 and long setup @ 1.33
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  • #9,288
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:45am Nov 24, 2020 4:45am
Watching GJ around 138.7/138.8

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Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,289
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:50am Nov 24, 2020 4:50am
Quoting C-12
This was a fish that got away. Yes, I did take it but exit was incorrect. In hindsight the ugly bearish looking PA is not really important as it's purely old data based upon yesterday's confluence setup off 1.19. The H4 divergence would have been established after the low formed but would be a clear reason not to exit so early or consider opposing setup at 1.1850. {image}
I agree. 1.18 on EURUSD was a very good long setup.

Possible short setup @ 1.19 and 1.1950, long setup@ 1.18
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  • #9,290
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:53am Nov 24, 2020 4:53am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. 1.18 on EURUSD was a very good long setup. Possible short setup @ 1.19 and 1.1950, long setup@ 1.18 {image}
Yes, it happens I guess. I am now also seeing very good opportunity on NZD crosses now that NZDUSD has hit the big round number.

This is could be quite significant moves based on it.

EURNZD particularly attractive off 1.70
  • #9,291
  • Nov 24, 2020 4:54am Nov 24, 2020 4:54am
AUDUSD, possible short setup @ 0.74 and long setups @ 0.72 and 0.7150
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  • #9,292
  • Nov 24, 2020 5:05am Nov 24, 2020 5:05am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, I took a short on this pair and got stopped out at b/e. Looking to go short again. The structure looks like an ending diagonal. Possible short setup @ .70 {image}
NZDUSD, short trade. Let's see how it develops.
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  • #9,293
  • Nov 24, 2020 5:23am Nov 24, 2020 5:23am
GU, it might be doing an abc. Let' see
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  • #9,294
  • Nov 24, 2020 5:28am Nov 24, 2020 5:28am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, it might be doing an abc. Let' see {image}
EURCAD - Another missed opportunity that got away. 50% and 1.5450

I am trying to think of a way to track these better as I will happily take all these clean levels until margin limit is reached.
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  • #9,295
  • Nov 24, 2020 5:32am Nov 24, 2020 5:32am
Quoting shahab8b
GOLD broke below a very important S {image}
Gold
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  • #9,296
  • Nov 24, 2020 5:48am Nov 24, 2020 5:48am
E/A
0,62 area looks good, 50% last swing.
But under 0,61 very strong support area on Daily
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  • #9,297
  • Nov 24, 2020 6:18am Nov 24, 2020 6:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,298
  • Nov 24, 2020 6:52am Nov 24, 2020 6:52am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, it might be doing an abc. Let' see {image}
GBPUSD, short trade. A much better entry was missed at the supply zone. I needed coffee , haha.
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  • #9,299
  • Nov 24, 2020 6:59am Nov 24, 2020 6:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, short trade update, reaching the S zone. Possible long setup {image}
EURGBP, long trade
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  • #9,300
  • Nov 24, 2020 7:04am Nov 24, 2020 7:04am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, short setup @ 0.92 and long setup @ 0.90 {image}
USDCHF - 0.91 - forgot to mention this one. Spinning a few plates here.
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