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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,261
  • Nov 23, 2020 10:57am Nov 23, 2020 10:57am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Is there anyone else in this forum who is nailing these moves to the pip and calling out in advance? I very much doubt there is.
I feel some may secretly hate us. But we are not using any crystal ball. The approach is very simple and everyone can do it. In fact it is as simple as it gets. We should all learn to avoid complexity.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." Antoine de Saint-Exupery.

I'm not saying this approach is perfect (as I explained in details before). And I also think true perfection cannot be achieved. But we can still try to be on the right path.
  • #9,262
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:12am Nov 23, 2020 11:12am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I feel some may secretly hate us. But we are not using any crystal ball. The approach is very simple and everyone can do it. In fact it is as simple as it gets. We should all learn to avoid complexity. "Perfection is not achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." Antoine de Saint-Exupery. I'm not saying this approach is perfect (as I explained in details before). And I also think true perfection cannot be achieved. But we can still try to be on the right path.
My takeaway from today was that I need to be even more ruthless with destroying my directional bias and stick to solid levels.

I started today with a bullish bias and was only looking for sells off 1.19 as a small pullback. Of course as soon PA kicked in it was easy to hold but I prefer to have no surprises (either good or bad) served up after entry.

EU's confluence on 1.19 was clear to see and plan out days in advance.

Overall a very good start to the week it seems, cant complain too much.
  • #9,263
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:15am Nov 23, 2020 11:15am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Is there anyone else in this forum who is nailing these moves to the pip and calling out in advance? I very much doubt there is.
I guess only OP
  • #9,264
  • Edited 11:31am Nov 23, 2020 11:19am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting Merka
{quote} I guess only OP
This guy's not bad either

Quoting C-12
{quote} It may well be ready to go from here, but I've opened up the D1 chart and see two things: 1) Price closed and holding above support. 2) D1/H4 supply at around 1.34 normally I would expect something to be hit before a reversal, especially after taking out all the retracement levels.{image}
But seriously though....This is all about the methods and levels taught here. Everyone can find these setups if they get up to speed on the postings.

I would encourage everyone to get involved, ask questions, post charts and setups as that is by far way the best to learn.

It didn't take me long to get up to speed, but I needed to be in here in the trenches for it to really sink in. Yes that means putting yourself out here and being open to scrutiny but you will be surprised how much that sharpens you up.
  • #9,265
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:28am Nov 23, 2020 11:28am
Risky..
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #9,266
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:30am Nov 23, 2020 11:30am
When the point is reached where the template looks too flashy ^^

Looking for a short where Neil the noob has placed his tp --> half number, 50% fib, s&r confluence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,267
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:34am Nov 23, 2020 11:34am
Quoting MCFly
When the point is reached where the template looks too flashy ^^ Looking for a short where Neil the noob has placed his tp --> half number, 50% fib, s&r confluence {image}
Unfortunately once seen, that pink pastel template cannot be unseen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,268
  • Nov 23, 2020 12:14pm Nov 23, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Looks a good location for an addition. Scalping 1.18? let's if we at least a few out of it. {image}
You did a great job with that long! Staying mechanical. Way to go!
  • #9,269
  • Edited 12:44pm Nov 23, 2020 12:21pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You did a great job with that long! Staying mechanical. Way to go!
Yup, the location confluence on the long was just the same as the short at the highs. I really should have took full TP on the sell. oh well.

Actually the long also had 61.8 fib as well. Forgot to update it.

I guess we really just follow our checklists and not get caught up with too much adrenaline when the fast move happens.

So now we have sell setup approaching at 1.1850 and 50% + SR
  • #9,270
  • Nov 23, 2020 1:42pm Nov 23, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} seems to work, lets see {image}
nope, stopped out. will see @140
  • #9,271
  • Edited 2:33pm Nov 23, 2020 2:11pm | Edited 2:33pm
GBPUSD - potential add setup at 1.3550 @ 61.8

AUDUSD - Level at 0.73 @ 50
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,272
  • Nov 23, 2020 4:20pm Nov 23, 2020 4:20pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} It depends on your experience level and your confidence in the setup. I do limit orders and also do market orders based on smaller TF. Look at this GU for example. I had a pending sell @ 1.34 (my pre-planned short setup), but I was looking at M5 and decided to pull the trigger based on pa and divergence. Also note that I took the trade after I saw the first drop on M5, meaning I sold the small retracement up just below 1.34 {image}
Understood
Thanks
  • #9,273
  • Nov 23, 2020 5:30pm Nov 23, 2020 5:30pm
USDJPY, possible short setup @ 105 and long setup @ 103.70-103.90
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  • #9,274
  • Edited 6:24pm Nov 23, 2020 5:36pm | Edited 6:24pm
USDJPY D1 remains bearish below TL and S @ 106; however, I don't like that it couldn't make a new low before doing an upswing. In the short term (H1/H4) it looks slightly bullish. Let's see how it develops.
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  • #9,275
  • Nov 23, 2020 6:31pm Nov 23, 2020 6:31pm
USDCHF, short setup @ 0.92 and long setup @ 0.90
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  • #9,276
  • Nov 23, 2020 7:38pm Nov 23, 2020 7:38pm
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  • #9,277
  • Nov 23, 2020 9:37pm Nov 23, 2020 9:37pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} This guy's not bad either {quote} But seriously though....This is all about the methods and levels taught here. Everyone can find these setups if they get up to speed on the postings. I would encourage everyone to get involved, ask questions, post charts and setups as that is by far way the best to learn. It didn't take me long to get up to speed, but I needed to be in here in the trenches for it to really sink in. Yes that means putting yourself out here and being open to scrutiny but you will be surprised how much that sharpens...
Thank You For encouraging us, I appreciate your effort towards learning here. I am also trying to trade with Price action but some how i am facing a issue regarding entering in a opposite direction trade some time price reach the S/R zone and does not react and push more higher/Lower some time price turn before S/R zone and push continue in other direction, we learn here trade with trend but when trend is confirmed it too late to get in the trade if some how we enter with trend price consolidate after moving in trend direction. I saw you and shahab8b are doing very good in taking trade on S/R zone even if price is moving very hard E.g your EURUSD Long trade at 1.18 Round number I was there when price moving hard towards 1.18 but don't have courage to take trade against those red momentum candles please throw some light when you guys have some free time.
Thank You.
Newbie
  • #9,278
  • Nov 23, 2020 11:06pm Nov 23, 2020 11:06pm
Quoting shad4u2
{quote} Thank You For encouraging us, I appreciate your effort towards learning here. I am also trying to trade with Price action but some how i am facing a issue regarding entering in a opposite direction trade some time price reach the S/R zone and does not react and push more higher/Lower some time price turn before S/R zone and push continue in other direction, we learn here trade with trend but when trend is confirmed it too late to get in the trade if some how we enter with trend price consolidate after moving in trend direction. I saw you...
Quoting shad4u2
{quote} Thank You For encouraging us, I appreciate your effort towards learning here. I am also trying to trade with Price action but some how i am facing a issue regarding entering in a opposite direction trade some time price reach the S/R zone and does not react and push more higher/Lower some time price turn before S/R zone and push continue in other direction, we learn here trade with trend but when trend is confirmed it too late to get in the trade if some how we enter with trend price consolidate after moving in trend direction. I saw you...


i just want to help a little.....looking for the key level of the past data feed on ur chart example you can trade the supply and demand of previous week or month..

here is my chart u will see those levels i mark are are month and week where price have been rejected with false and fail...dont forget sometime we are just lucky market will still do what should be done..
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #9,279
  • Nov 24, 2020 12:31am Nov 24, 2020 12:31am
IF Monday's High is broken, then we should see a new Yearly high by December.
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #9,280
  • Edited 2:03am Nov 24, 2020 1:45am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting Roszey
IF Monday's High is broken, then we should see a new Yearly high by December. {image}
Yes it seems quite possible yesterday's moves were just a stop collection on the way to a move higher, but GBPUSD has reached D1/H4 supply which normally would offer a bigger reaction than 100 points. It can certainly retest 1.34 again as that level didn't quite get hit. Same with 1.35. So I can see it going quite higher but should can still get something off these intraday levels.

I noticed AUDUSD and NZDUSD ripped higher overnight, but they may well just been seeking out a final leg up to 0.74/0.70 which are the huge levels of interest.
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