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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,161
  • Nov 19, 2020 7:04am Nov 19, 2020 7:04am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, maybe something like this. {image}
GU, it's interesting to see how that forecast has played out
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  • #9,162
  • Nov 19, 2020 7:44am Nov 19, 2020 7:44am
Quoting C-12
GBPUSD - will take a slice off at 1.32. We know these RN's can often bounce so will take the easy money and let some ride. {image}
You got almost all the move.
Well done
  • #9,163
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:07am Nov 19, 2020 8:07am
Quoting Merka
{quote} You got almost all the move. Well done
Cheers Merka, this thread has been a total game changer for me. Big respect to shahab8b for open my eyes to this.

Plus the entire fib and round number thing is a much deeper rabbit hole that I ever expected to find.
  • #9,164
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:10am Nov 19, 2020 8:10am
NZDUSD - found entry in the end. Initially attempted RN but quickly realised it needed to find a retracement level.

USDCAD - This is a real multi layered fib minefield. Think I found what I was looking for. Long off the 50-61.8 level.
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  • #9,165
  • Nov 19, 2020 8:51am Nov 19, 2020 8:51am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, it's interesting to see how that forecast has played out {image}
1. I think you are a time traveller
2. You should be very careful and hide, isolate. Not directly because of covid-19, but when Kim Jong-un is trying to trade and it doesn´t look so good, he will abduct you and force you to trade in his account
Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,166
  • Edited 9:17am Nov 19, 2020 9:00am | Edited 9:17am
EURAUD - TP1 hit - a smooth ride from 1.62 to 1.63.

GBPCAD - TP1 hit.
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  • #9,167
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:58am Nov 19, 2020 10:58am
USDJPY - This has already been posted but let's have a deeper dive as the level approaches.

103.50 and the very base of the sharp move up. One to watch out for.

If we do get something there, it will surely give my flagging EURJPY a good kick it needs.

Also noticed USD take late session hit. EURUSD bounced well off that 50% level. Trimmed down on USD long positions.
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  • #9,168
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:14pm Nov 19, 2020 5:14pm
GBPUSD, strong bounce off 1.32 and fib .50, trend slightly bullish. Possible long and short setups @ 1.32 and 1.33
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  • #9,169
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:22pm Nov 19, 2020 5:22pm
EURUSD, bullish daily close. possible short setups @ 1.19 and 1.195
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  • #9,170
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:27pm Nov 19, 2020 5:27pm
NZDUSD, possible short setup
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  • #9,171
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:35pm Nov 19, 2020 5:35pm
AUDJPY, possible long and short setups @ 75 and 77
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  • #9,172
  • Nov 19, 2020 5:44pm Nov 19, 2020 5:44pm
EURAUD, possible short setups
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  • #9,173
  • Edited 10:43pm Nov 19, 2020 10:32pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, strong bounce off 1.32 and fib .50, trend slightly bullish. Possible long and short setups @ 1.32 and 1.33 {image}
Yes, can't believe I missed that 50% at 1.32, but managed to sneak in a position in on the back test of 1.3250.

I think highs will prob be taken.

Good to see some crosses. I do think these can be nice account boosters when majors go into this sideways chop.
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  • #9,174
  • Nov 19, 2020 10:53pm Nov 19, 2020 10:53pm
Quoting C-12
GBPCAD - D1 grinding uptrend - 1.73, S/R, 50%. Looks promising for a move to 1.74 as TP1 As I have been scanning these crosses it quite fascinating to see how well RN's and 0.5RN work on these pairs. {image}
GBPCAD - Missed setup. I had 1.73 in my trading journal at start of the week. A fish that got away.

AUDNZD - Possible setup - W1 chart.
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  • #9,175
  • Edited 11:30pm Nov 19, 2020 11:07pm | Edited 11:30pm
CHFJPY - Another JPY cross that looks like it's almost ready to cook. Nice sweep of lows at 1.14 with PA developing. Will revisit for next week.

EURUSD - Possible intraday long setup to take up to 1.19. It might not get there.
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  • #9,176
  • Nov 20, 2020 1:59am Nov 20, 2020 1:59am
GU, it needs to break above that TL. It seems to me it's retesting the broken TL on the opposite side.
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  • #9,177
  • Nov 20, 2020 2:05am Nov 20, 2020 2:05am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, it needs to break above that TL. It seems to me it's retesting the broken TL on the opposite side. {image}
I see what you mean, that TL could cause a problem if it gets above last week's high, will keep an eye on it for sure if it's gets up there.

I managed to pack on a bit more on the retest of 1.3250

Let's see if EU delivers the 1.1850.
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  • #9,178
  • Nov 20, 2020 2:11am Nov 20, 2020 2:11am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I see what you mean, that TL could cause a problem if it gets above last week's high, will keep an eye on it for sure if it's gets up there. I managed to pack on a bit more on the retest of 1.3250 Let's see if EU delivers the 1.1850. {image}
I'm thinking about shorting the Cable, lets see how it unfolds.
  • #9,179
  • Nov 20, 2020 2:12am Nov 20, 2020 2:12am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm thinking about shorting the Cable, lets see how it unfolds.
Yep, a good area to look for sells. This is just scalp / intraday not thinking much more than 1.33 or last week's top.
  • #9,180
  • Nov 20, 2020 2:16am Nov 20, 2020 2:16am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, it needs to break above that TL. It seems to me it's retesting the broken TL on the opposite side. {image}
this is the exact scenario im looking for.
upside breakout to daily R1, maybe little more, and the drop.

i follow you.
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