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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,081
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:10pm Nov 17, 2020 12:10pm
GBPCAD - D1 grinding uptrend - 1.73, S/R, 50%. Looks promising for a move to 1.74 as TP1

As I have been scanning these crosses it quite fascinating to see how well RN's and 0.5RN work on these pairs.
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  • #9,082
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:21pm Nov 17, 2020 12:21pm
AUDUSD - Absolutely no brainer at 0.74 for a reversal or a possible continuation play off 0.73.

Both fresh untested round numbers (0.74 is technically 2nd time back), plus AUD news coming up.

How did I miss the long at 0.70!?
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  • #9,083
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:31pm Nov 17, 2020 12:31pm
Quoting C-12
AUDUSD - Absolutely no brainer at 0.74 for a reversal or a possible continuation play off 0.73. Both fresh untested round numbers (0.74 is technically 2nd time back), plus AUD news coming up. How did I miss the long at 0.70!? {image}
You are not the only one who missed it. I think I was obsessed with that triangle pattern and I failed to recognize it could be actually a more common bullish continuation pattern rather than a rarer triangle top. I even read that Credit Suisse had a recommendation to buy AU @ 0.70 and I decided to ignore it. How bout that?
  • #9,084
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:34pm Nov 17, 2020 12:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You are not the only one how missed it. I think I was obsessed with that triangle pattern and I failed to recognize it could be actually a more common bullish continuation pattern rather than a rarer triangle top. I even read that Credit Suisse had a recommendation to buy AU @ 0.70 and I decided to ignore it. How bout that?
I guess this is the levels over bias issue we we're talking about last week. In hindsight 0.70 was such a well placed untested round number. Oh well...

It sounds like we need to get Credit Suisse to come and join us in this thread!
  • #9,085
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:41pm Nov 17, 2020 12:41pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I guess this is the levels over bias issue we we're talking about last week. In hindsight 0.70 was such a well placed untested round number. Oh well... It sounds like we need to get Credit Suisse to come and join us in this thread!
That's very true. Having a bias sometimes is not good. It's better to stay mechanical.

Speaking of missed trades, I charted that triangle on BTC when it was forming. I was pretty sure it was going to a bullish run, particularly because one youtuber was calling for a bearish play at the time. He completely misread that pattern. But I didn't pull the trigger.
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  • #9,086
  • Nov 17, 2020 12:46pm Nov 17, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That's very true. Having a bias sometimes is not good. It's better to stay mechanical. Speaking of missed trades, I charted that triangle on BTC when it was forming. I was pretty sure it was going to a bullish run, particularly because one youtuber was calling for a bearish play at the time. He completely misread that pattern. But I didn't pull the trigger. {image}
Yes I had a similar one when gold was near $1250. It's kind of funny when you look back on those.

Anyway... Here's the last chart from me today before this turns into the C-12's Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas Thread.

EURCAD - If you like the idea of a EURUSD short, here's a nice chunky supply box with 1.56 tucked nicely in front of it.
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  • #9,087
  • Nov 17, 2020 1:03pm Nov 17, 2020 1:03pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes I had a similar one when gold was near $1250. It's kind of funny when you look back on those. Anyway... Here's the last chart from me today before this turns into the C-12's Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas Thread. EURCAD - If you like the idea of a EURUSD short, here's a nice chunky supply box with 1.56 tucked nicely in front of it. {image}
That's a good setup. Also note 1.5650 on EURCAD, confluence of fib 0.5, R, and 0.5 RN.
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  • #9,088
  • Nov 17, 2020 1:08pm Nov 17, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That's a good setup. Also note 1.5650 on EURCAD, confluence of fib 0.5, R, and 0.5 RN. {image}
Yes, I think adding few crosses into the mix it really opens up some interesting setups. Some of them can really shift. Check out GBPNZD from 1.98 all the way down to 1.91. in one month. If you catch a few swings on those you can rack up a lot of points. Plus adding on fib / RN retracements along the way.

Also these charts are the perfect none lagging currency strength meters.
  • #9,089
  • Nov 17, 2020 3:41pm Nov 17, 2020 3:41pm
Sorry for not posting chart but I'm with the phone now.
I was taking a quick look on Dow,s&p,bitcoin.The Daily bearish divergence on rsi looks pretty bad.
Dxy is bullish divergence on weekly.
Big moves coming I guess.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #9,090
  • Nov 17, 2020 5:30pm Nov 17, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting Bacco
Sorry for not posting chart but I'm with the phone now. I was taking a quick look on Dow,s&p,bitcoin.The Daily bearish divergence on rsi looks pretty bad. Dxy is bullish divergence on weekly. Big moves coming I guess.
I agree on Dow and S&P. But I personally stay away from shorting bitcoin. That short trade is a widow-maker trade atm. If bitcoin was a currency pair I would have shorted it @ 20,000 as there might be some R there. But I won't touch it now unless it shows me a clear technical short.
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  • #9,091
  • Edited 6:11pm Nov 17, 2020 5:32pm | Edited 6:11pm
EURUSD, a few notes on how you can read a chart by using RSI and other technical stuff.
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  • #9,092
  • Nov 17, 2020 5:33pm Nov 17, 2020 5:33pm
good morning,
atm, inside triangle pattern at USD/CAD, possible to long.
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  • #9,093
  • Nov 17, 2020 5:43pm Nov 17, 2020 5:43pm
Quoting meugampong
good morning, atm, inside triangle pattern at USD/CAD, possible to long. {image}
Good. But remember triangles are bidirectional in nature.
  • #9,094
  • Nov 17, 2020 5:55pm Nov 17, 2020 5:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Good. But remember triangles are bidirectional in nature.
yes sir, thanks for your advice, i will see closely the rsi for clear direction as you mention above @post 9.091, atm ucad h1 above 50
  • #9,095
  • Nov 17, 2020 6:13pm Nov 17, 2020 6:13pm
i learn a lot from this thread, like my masta said, this thread not signal provider, ..
why i post here, perhaps my shahab as my masta can give me a clue, advice or lesson how to read market movement..
meanwhile. ending diagonal for USDCHF,
#bullish bias
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  • #9,096
  • Nov 17, 2020 6:19pm Nov 17, 2020 6:19pm
Quoting meugampong
{quote} yes sir, thanks for your advice, i will see closely the rsi for clear direction as you mention above @post 9.091, atm ucad h1 above 50
You can identify a trend based on PA using two lines a TL and a horizontal line (S/R). Use RSI as a supplementary tool.
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  • #9,097
  • Nov 17, 2020 8:06pm Nov 17, 2020 8:06pm
NZDUSD, possible double top on H4
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  • #9,098
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:37am Nov 18, 2020 1:37am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, possible double top on H4 {image}
looked set to break up, maybe with some small ranging.
h1 to mn rsi all above 50.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #9,099
  • Edited 2:26am Nov 18, 2020 1:39am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Sharp catch as always. I am hoping we get one final push off this base into 1.19 where my order is patiently waiting to join you. {image}
EURUSD - Quick overnight setup. H1 demand + 05RN H4 trend setup. Almost there. Will see what we get off 1.19. feels this may go higher eventually.

USDCAD - Can't remember if I called it here, but a nice example of SD zone, 50%, trend continuation.

USDCHF - Long setup off 0.91, small stop. This one probably needs to wait for EU 1.19 to do something.

GBPCHF - Poss short at 1.21 @ 50%
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  • #9,100
  • Nov 18, 2020 3:29am Nov 18, 2020 3:29am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree on Dow and S&P. But I personally stay away from shorting bitcoin. That short trade is a widow-maker trade atm. If bitcoin was a currency pair I would have shorted it @ 20,000 as there might be some R there. But I won't touch it now unless it shows me a clear technical short. {image}
agree. they could take it even above 20.000. But im very cautios with the long now.
I never trade it honestly. I bought one last year. but was long term investment. Unfortunately has been sold already. But i remember that was extremely volatile.It could move 7/8/9% in one day. I stay away.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
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