Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets | Page 200 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Software tools for LauraT's Roadmap 169 replies

Forex Brokerage Roadmap 4 replies

Best way to read all of someone's posts? 3 replies

Simple way to read chart 11 replies

Attachments: Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets
Exit Attachments

Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #3,981
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:17am Nov 12, 2020 5:17am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Ok, thanks ... I think I might have a better understanding now. but just to check, I've labeled a chart where I would theoretically take a trade. although obviously the markets are not active right now so i won't. but if they were active. would you agree with this chart ? {image}
Your markup is correct. Aside from what I assume is a typo, as the one with the question mark is actually a Higher Low.

You are right in your analysis. Another possibility is that it goes on to form a Lower High. If that's the case, you'd be on alert for the previous Higher Low being broken to enter short (assuming other stuff agreed).
  • #3,982
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:30am Nov 12, 2020 5:30am
Quoting blessedtj
I started reading about this trading system yesterday and I am really learning a lot from this system after a long time of trading. This is my first trade. I hope I did everything well. However, I have a question. How do you know when a trend is about to reverse? {image}
Welcome

Although it was mildly profitable, it wasn't in accordance with roadmap rules. You were entering before channel had fully crossed above SMA. I've attached a chart with the vertical line being the correct entry point. As you can see, it took off after that.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.png Size: 41 KB
  • #3,983
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:43am Nov 12, 2020 5:43am
Quoting dbsdsun
Excuse me, Laura, In your journal, "I occasionally use a global trade manager to automatically close all open positions". I didn't find the global trade manager in this thread. Could you please tell my where I can find the trade manager? Thanks, Wilson
Attached below. It's an EA so goes in your experts folder.

You set the percentage of profit you want to achieve and it'll auto close ALL open trades when you reach that percentage total. Same for Stop Loss.

IMPORTANT - If downloading and using this trade manager, please note you do so at your own risk and you should initially check how it operates on demo to avoid any nasty surprises.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 GlobalCloseManagerv2.ex4   10 KB | 598 downloads
  • #3,984
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:15am Nov 12, 2020 7:15am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Your markup is correct. Aside from what I assume is a typo, as the one with the question mark is actually a Higher Low. You are right in your analysis. Another possibility is that it goes on to form a Lower High. If that's the case, you'd be on alert for the previous Higher Low being broken to enter short (assuming other stuff agreed).

Many thanks Laura. you are right, I labeled that wrong it should have been a higher low.
The writing in bold, it's funny you should say that. because in asian session it looks like that did actually happen. I was around at the time and thinking about it, and marked an entry but didn't actually pull the trigger. here is the chart below. I have adjusted the swings to try and portray what I think you are trying to say. is this correct? i've attached a picture to this post below. edit: it looks like that RSI2/RSI9 thing was around 53 at the time. it needs to be lower than 50 i think. but lets just say it was below 50, does everything else look correct?




Also I took a trade on AUD/USD on the previous page which I posted last night in asian session. It seems to have failed. Would you say it taken correctly?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13258968
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example but is it right 2.png Size: 62 KB
  • #3,985
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:22am Nov 12, 2020 7:22am
looks like I got a winner for once here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD winner.png Size: 60 KB
  • #3,986
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:47am Nov 12, 2020 7:47am
The morning Nasdaq (Tech100 chart)
This chart answers an earlier question. Some times you draw your 'look left' lines - prior to 8am UK open-and watch price action. I didn't get a long trade until 9:09am.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tech100am1343.png Size: 469 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,987
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:17am Nov 12, 2020 8:17am
The Dax UK morning - not traded ny me. But I thought I would put it up to show hypothetical trades around blue markings to illustrate channel break trades like Laura's 20 test ? Not all my lines are shown to avoid a mess but pre open lines are shown and the blue line at 13160 is a price level hit twice between 10 and 10:30am with a 10:06 prior short losing ( price crashing into the nearby low horizontal at 13140), hence connection the next top formed 10:20 am and carried forward and price duly bouncing off the projected level around 10:41am -ish.
Chart just for info and discussion
I print these and others to a folder for later study.
For some reason I favour the Nasdaq of a UK morning whereas it might be more useful to watch the dax after 9am each day. I know some of you look at several charts but I can only fix on two and even then I tend to just watch one chart all day. Well - "all day" -I try to limit my trading to two hours in the morning and afternoon.cos I am old and my eyes hurt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daxtest1400.png Size: 610 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,988
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:53am Nov 12, 2020 8:53am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Many thanks Laura. you are right, I labeled that wrong it should have been a higher low. The writing in bold, it's funny you should say that. because in asian session it looks like that did actually happen. I was around at the time and thinking about it, and marked an entry but didn't actually pull the trigger. here is the chart below. I have adjusted the swings to try and portray what I think you are trying to say. is this correct? i've attached a picture to this post below. edit: it looks like that RSI2/RSI9 thing was around 53 at the...
That looks correct And yes, if RSI was in agreement, it would have been a valid short entry. Also note that it was a breakout of compression. If you see a LH and a HL together, draw trendlines to highlight the compression (which you did) and watch how price reactions at the boundaries.
  • #3,989
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:54am Nov 12, 2020 8:54am
Quoting kain775
looks like I got a winner for once here {image}
Perfect

You timed the entry just right. Following the break of the Higher Low, well done.
  • #3,990
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:58am Nov 12, 2020 8:58am
Quoting kain775
took this one during asian session {image}
Mainly this was just one of those trades that didn't work out, due to no fault of your own.

However, I usually advise traders to consider taking at least partial profit when price spikes in their favour. Such spikes are often a sure sign of retracement ahead or even a change in direction, as happened here.
  • #3,991
  • Nov 12, 2020 9:09am Nov 12, 2020 9:09am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} That looks correct And yes, if RSI was in agreement, it would have been a valid short entry. Also note that it was a breakout of compression. If you see a LH and a HL together, draw trendlines to highlight the compression (which you did) and watch how price reactions at the boundaries.

Thanks

I'll just quote this post instead of all of them.

What sort of win rate should I expect for this method?
I've taken another one just now on m1, and it seems to have failed also

I'm assuming it was a correct entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd m1 fail.png Size: 59 KB
  • #3,992
  • Nov 12, 2020 9:37am Nov 12, 2020 9:37am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Thanks I'll just quote this post instead of all of them. What sort of win rate should I expect for this method? I've taken another one just now on m1, and it seems to have failed also I'm assuming it was a correct entry {image}
No, that one wasn't correct. You were buying under SMA200 - we only take sells under that. You were also buying while the market was falling, something I don't recommend.

I also wouldn't advise trading EU on 1m. It isn't volatile enough to make it worth your while.

In terms of win rate, it really depends on your level of proficiency, all things being equal you'd be looking at 55%+ with a positive RRR. I've seen traders hit the 80% win rate mark but I'd rather keep expectations low in that regard.

A lot depends on your money management strategy too, of course. And whether you are psychologically able to let winners run. My RRR is skewed heavily positive because I don't take profit too quickly.

But every trader is unique and I wouldn't really like to give a blanket expectation of win rate/profitability.
  • #3,993
  • Nov 12, 2020 9:51am Nov 12, 2020 9:51am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} No, that one wasn't correct. You were buying under SMA200 - we only take sells under that. You were also buying while the market was falling, something I don't recommend. I also wouldn't advise trading EU on 1m. It isn't volatile enough to make it worth your while. In terms of win rate, it really depends on your level of proficiency, all things being equal you'd be looking at 55%+ with a positive RRR. I've seen traders hit the 80% win rate mark but I'd rather keep expectations low in that regard. A lot depends on your money management strategy...


With that trade, the entry I spotted was supposed to be where I marked it with the green line, at that point is time price was above the sma200 but I actually entered later as It retraced ...because i was anticipating it would retrace before going north .... but it ended up continuing going south until it ran my stop.

in light of this revelation, was the trade correct?
or is waiting for price to retrace once you spot an entry a no-no?
  • #3,994
  • Nov 12, 2020 4:42pm Nov 12, 2020 4:42pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} With that trade, the entry I spotted was supposed to be where I marked it with the green line, at that point is time price was above the sma200 but I actually entered later as It retraced ...because i was anticipating it would retrace before going north .... but it ended up continuing going south until it ran my stop. in light of this revelation, was the trade correct? or is waiting for price to retrace once you spot an entry a no-no?
Don't anticipate (guess).
All you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be.
  • #3,995
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:45pm Nov 12, 2020 8:45pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} ~~ in light of this revelation, was the trade correct? or is waiting for price to retrace once you spot an entry a no-no?
Waiting for a retrace depends on how you trade. It's what I do, especially with a 200 sma cross.

The point about the retrace of your long trade is that:
Price had retraced below the 200sma
Below your trend line
Below the previous HH
Below 55 on the CompRSI indi

In short the "retrace" had fallen through everything. (For me the point of a retrace is watching for a bounce off something.) In relation to the question about the original "green line entry", you could look at how this retrace fall through everything without travelling very far. HTH.
Good Trading
  • #3,996
  • Nov 13, 2020 1:56am Nov 13, 2020 1:56am
In reply of Kain trade Laura , is it better to wait for the break of the bullish trendline before going short?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD winner.png Size: 62 KB
  • #3,997
  • Nov 13, 2020 2:03am Nov 13, 2020 2:03am
Laura , can you give me some of your opinion based on the chart attached ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: question.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #3,998
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:47am Nov 13, 2020 4:47am
Quoting firewir3
In reply of Kain trade Laura , is it better to wait for the break of the bullish trendline before going short? {image}
You could choose to wait for the break of the trendline. However, for me, the break of the previous low would have been enough to confirm bearish structure.
  • #3,999
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:48am Nov 13, 2020 4:48am
Quoting firewir3
Laura , can you give me some of your opinion based on the chart attached ? {image}
I don't advise looking for longs when the recent history has been one long move down.
  • #4,000
  • Nov 13, 2020 5:33am Nov 13, 2020 5:33am
Quoting aud
{quote} Waiting for a retrace depends on how you trade. It's what I do, especially with a 200 sma cross. The point about the retrace of your long trade is that: Price had retraced below the 200sma Below your trend line Below the previous HH Below 55 on the CompRSI indi In short the "retrace" had fallen through everything. (For me the point of a retrace is watching for a bounce off something.) In relation to the question about the original "green line entry", you could look at how this retrace fall through everything without travelling very far....
thanks for the reply.
3 traders viewing now