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Up and under price pattern

  • #3,341
  • Nov 10, 2020 5:55pm Nov 10, 2020 5:55pm
Quoting Inthebox
what do you think? {image}
Bearish QM in H1 that got backing of Daily timeframe Supply Zone @ 139.5 to 140 levels.
However, the evidence of bearish forces is weak since break of the structure is mild and not a strong engulf of the previous Swing Low. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ivGW2udl/
  • #3,342
  • Nov 10, 2020 6:43pm Nov 10, 2020 6:43pm
Quoting Inthebox
what do you think? {image}
My rule does not allow trade because of not clear enough pattern to enter, specifically because of the green candle indicated by arrow.

But if that didnt exist, then my sell limit would be at red line and TP at green (mid point of wick of swing low), then it would be a win overnight (my time)

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  • #3,343
  • Nov 10, 2020 7:01pm Nov 10, 2020 7:01pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Bearish QM in H1 that got backing of Daily timeframe Supply Zone @ 139.5 to 140 levels. However, the evidence of bearish forces is weak since break of the structure is mild and not a strong engulf of the previous Swing Low. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ivGW2udl/
we may have different interpretation of d1 supply zone. my supply zone is way up 141.60 to 142.70.
however i see a h4 drop base drop.
in your h1 chart, i see a hh ll engulf the previous h and l. not candle body but just high low.
to have some confirmation in h1 that price is heading down, it has to be below ll.
just take a look at w1, maybe it will be clearer.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,344
  • Nov 10, 2020 7:09pm Nov 10, 2020 7:09pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} My rule does not allow trade because of not clear enough pattern to enter, specifically because of the green candle indicated by arrow. But if that didnt exist, then my sell limit would be at red line and TP at green (mid point of wick of swing low), then it would be a win overnight (my time) {image}
my view in previous post.
my point is to point out the location to take trades.
it can be a m5 scalp which resulted in 20-30 pips gain.
or
it can turn into a h1/h4 swing trade.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,345
  • Nov 10, 2020 7:44pm Nov 10, 2020 7:44pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} my view in previous post. my point is to point out the location to take trades. it can be a m5 scalp which resulted in 20-30 pips gain. or it can turn into a h1/h4 swing trade.
Yes it is always interesting to know various approaches of the same concept.

USDCAD got one on H1 pattern, and one more at same level. Let's see...
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  • #3,346
  • Nov 10, 2020 9:02pm Nov 10, 2020 9:02pm
Quoting Inthebox
what do you think? {image}
one line may not be enough. need another one or two more for added confidence.
w1 resistance with m5 qm.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,347
  • Nov 10, 2020 9:27pm Nov 10, 2020 9:27pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} we may have different interpretation of d1 supply zone. my supply zone is way up 141.60 to 142.70. however i see a h4 drop base drop. in your h1 chart, i see a hh ll engulf the previous h and l. not candle body but just high low. to have some confirmation in h1 that price is heading down, it has to be below ll. just take a look at w1, maybe it will be clearer.
Sorry, could not get this. Are you saying, price should close above/below previous swing high & low instead of just a wick based break?
  • #3,348
  • Nov 10, 2020 9:45pm Nov 10, 2020 9:45pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Sorry, could not get this. Are you saying, price should close above/below previous swing high & low instead of just a wick based break?
the yellow vertical line engulf the pink.
if you intend to use h1 as your trading chart, the candle has to close below the LL. this is known as support structure break.
however nothing can prevent a swing trader from using m5 for early entry.

i have mentioned a few times before, whenever a trend line or SR is broken, the 1st thing to assume is there will going to be a consolidation.
just as it is happening now as price had broke a upward sloping trend line.
during consolidation, nothing is certain. price can break up or down the range.
that is also why a lot of people do not understand scalpers. trend only happen 25% of the time.

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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,349
  • Nov 10, 2020 10:02pm Nov 10, 2020 10:02pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} the yellow vertical line engulf the pink. if you intend to use h1 as your trading chart, the candle has to close below the LL. this is known as support structure break. however nothing can prevent a swing trader from using m5 for early entry. i have mentioned a few times before, whenever a trend line or SR is broken, the 1st thing to assume is there will going to be a consolidation. just as it is happening now as price had broke a upward sloping trend line. during consolidation, nothing is certain. price can break up or down the range. that...
Got it, thats where i also felt that the bearish evidence is mild and not strong. It should have strong leg down and visible structure break.
  • #3,350
  • Nov 10, 2020 10:10pm Nov 10, 2020 10:10pm
Thanks InTheBox for very detailed explanation.

Patience and sticking to the rules is gold! May feel pity "missing" a win, but can save you from a lot more losses.
  • #3,351
  • Nov 10, 2020 10:20pm Nov 10, 2020 10:20pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} Got it, thats where i also felt that the bearish evidence is mild and not strong. It should have strong leg down and visible structure break.
At this time we do not know. Need not have strong leg down. The longer it consolide, can be 2, 3 days, the stronger the coil becomes and spring out of consoliation and goes further than normal trend.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,352
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:16am Nov 11, 2020 5:16am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} one line may not be enough. need another one or two more for added confidence. w1 resistance with m5 qm. {image}
price broke up of range, came down to test and drop back into range.
2nd qm scalp of 20-30 pips.
nothing much for swing traders today but to hold on to their trades for break down of range.
maybe something will happen during NY session or after london close.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,353
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:56am Nov 11, 2020 5:56am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} price broke up of range, came down to test and drop back into range. 2nd qm scalp of 20-30 pips. nothing much for swing traders today but to hold on to their trades for break down of range. maybe something will happen during NY session or after london close. {image}
Noted the same level, just the RR was too low to set up a trade.
something I need to learn when handling with setups with very small pullback

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  • #3,354
  • Nov 11, 2020 7:32am Nov 11, 2020 7:32am
if possible, it would be good that each of us honestly review how we formed our opinion on gbpjpy today for asia, london, ny session.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,355
  • Nov 11, 2020 2:57pm Nov 11, 2020 2:57pm
Quoting Inthebox
if possible, it would be good that each of us honestly review how we formed our opinion on gbpjpy today for asia, london, ny session.
simple for me. pure pattern recognition.

Once pattern forms, place buy/sell limit and wait. On whatever timeframe spotted, entry TP at mid-pt of wicks
If price comes back but retest very near the QM zone but does not really go in (e.g no obvious S/R level between the QM zone and the retest), cancel the order. If R:R <1, i am leaning how to manage them (the hit TP rate is so far very high)

So on GJ. One imperfect pattern (green lines and red arrow) so no trade. london session (red line) had a pattern with RR<1 so no trade at this point of experience. Just woke up and saw another pattern of RR<1 so again no trade (orange line). If it happens again the price could win the Orange setup, I probably start also considering RR<1 to trade

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  • #3,356
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:13pm Nov 11, 2020 5:13pm
some review on yesterday.

asia session.
i started off by asking for traders' opinions on the h1 bearish qm.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13256809
traders' opinions were that the pattern was a weak one, pattern not clear enough, some bullish candles within the qm zone.
not in favor of sell.
probably intimidated by the 2 upward impulse waves.

then a w1 chart was shown with resistance.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13257069

london session.
price broke up to the upside of w1 resistance.
fortune smiled as no one would have taken any sell.

new york seesion.
price came back down w1 resistance.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13257892
traders were still of the opinion not to sell.

all the while, no analysis of time frame higher than h1 was shown.

my opinion is that if one is trading the m5/m15 without looking at higher time frame, then just trade solely the m5/m15 time frame.
but one must have the strong mentality to exit for loss and take profit according to what that time frame one trades in can offer.
the scalpers or short term traders would be netted 2 win of 20-30 pips each.
one during early asia session, the other during london/ny session.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,357
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:32pm Nov 11, 2020 5:32pm
and now for swing trader, only one question.
would you have waited patiently for a probable d1 bearish qm yesterday???
no cheating.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #3,358
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:55pm Nov 11, 2020 5:55pm
Quoting Inthebox
and now for swing trader, only one question. would you have waited patiently for a probable d1 bearish qm yesterday??? no cheating. {image}
FOR ME, absolutely not not even know it exists!

i only look through H4 to 15min for perfect pattern for now. I think from now I should also consider looking at the price movement and use HH/LL to discover QMs that are “imperfect” or exist in HTF
  • #3,359
  • Nov 11, 2020 6:09pm Nov 11, 2020 6:09pm
Quoting Inthebox
and now for swing trader, only one question. would you have waited patiently for a probable d1 bearish qm yesterday??? no cheating. {image}
I didn't note it as a QM Zone in Daily. Even if spotted as QM, the zone is too big for me to trade.
However, there is a supply zone between the two big bearish candles. I intended to trade it. However, price broke the zone by 30 pips and started moving down.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNw6M7kv/
  • #3,360
  • Nov 11, 2020 6:42pm Nov 11, 2020 6:42pm
Quoting rmchokku
{quote} I didn't note it as a QM Zone in Daily. Even if spotted as QM, the zone is too big for me to trade. However, there is a supply zone between the two big bearish candles. I intended to trade it. However, price broke the zone by 30 pips and started moving down. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lNw6M7kv/
if you suspect there's a supply zone in d1, why not go down to h4, if still not clear go down to h1.
all this is to minimise the zone.
d1 qm is also a h4 qm.
look at the number of reactions to that line, proving it as good line to trade.
h4 has a drop base drop zone.
some people don't like to trade dbd zone.
then go to h1, it becomes h1 supply zone.
h1 placement of SL would become much smaller, with better entry.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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