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futuresNoptions trading - mostly indices/commodities

  • #341
  • Nov 4, 2020 6:47am Nov 4, 2020 6:47am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I am staying on the sideline. The outcome is uncertain leaving us with to many variable: Trump vs Biden Control of House and Senate mail votes taking their time -> leaving market in uncertainty will Trump accept mail votes after election day will Trump leave if Biden wins How will the US citizens react -> Riots??? How will the USD react New stimulus deal or more delays??? Fed intervention wild swings?? Some trading thought: I don't know if it's to late to develop an option hedge strategy ??? If the election is a close call and the...
Foreign markets and currencies tanking, why are low yield/earning sectors increasing?

I still have the same forecast of we're seeing start of bull run or new lows and or retest
rennstimp
  • #342
  • Nov 4, 2020 6:52am Nov 4, 2020 6:52am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} CNY is crashing, dixy is rising cash is king right now. Still not explaining the leap from NQ might be foreign investors, not entirely sure. I think people want the dollar right now. The best instrument to play against that im not sure, ive rode my /nq bear down for enough to be happy, curious what your move is? Vix could be an option but idk personally maybe an /es or /nq short would work, i would not advise /gc personally as of right now, maybe with a light spread of gas as well as a few commodities/equity. We'll see.
Still on the sideline market clearly favors Biden if you look at NQ. Further election delays / chaos might favor some bearisch movement imho. I guess your 11K7 plays a big part acting as resistance.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #343
  • Nov 4, 2020 8:35am Nov 4, 2020 8:35am
Took a first scalp but don't think it wanna move lower yet. keeping my eye on the 11k7 area
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #344
  • Nov 4, 2020 8:40am Nov 4, 2020 8:40am
That's what i wanna see
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #345
  • Nov 4, 2020 8:50am Nov 4, 2020 8:50am
Up 16,75 NQ points. Waiting for less noise on the (5M chart) market.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #346
  • Nov 4, 2020 9:06am Nov 4, 2020 9:06am
NQ second attack 11K7 area (5M chart)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #347
  • Nov 4, 2020 11:56pm Nov 4, 2020 11:56pm
Next weekly fib resistance reached on H4 all based on Republicans keeping the senate preventing Joe from raising taxes on tech.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #348
  • Nov 5, 2020 4:36am Nov 5, 2020 4:36am
Quoting Nancy15
{quote} What pair is that
NQ (nasdaq E mini) future more info

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equ...asdaq-100.html
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #349
  • Nov 9, 2020 12:16am Nov 9, 2020 12:16am
This madness still continues next station 12471 on the continuous contract. Still looking for shorting opportunities.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #350
  • Nov 9, 2020 6:41am Nov 9, 2020 6:41am
Quoting Ll1979
This madness still continues next station 12471 on the continuous contract. Still looking for shorting opportunities. {image}
missed PFIZER news. 5M chart
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #351
  • Nov 10, 2020 12:08am Nov 10, 2020 12:08am
are we witnessing the post ww2 baby boom - record low unemployment, social divide, and a world wide event debt and a not credit worthy generation that has an interest in tangle assets such as gold out of fear.

PFE has the vacine for covid thus american equity ending the world event, CNY down, dollar strong, overpriced tech down, employment is up, gdp is growing, and dollar remains strong.

Someone slap me i know ive shown a few screenshots and this is a futures trading thread, but holy shit i cant even take this in.

I know not much has happened yet, but am i the only one coming to this conclusion, is the boom the forecast for the next 5 years, interest rates are 2% houses far from expensive.

Do I actually just hold this onto filing and wait for record high wages with 2 percent interest mortgaging them out to non credit worthy renters, this is insane my roths are idk holy fuck earnings seem good and i mean this is all just the forecast but... the reopen of the economy the it measures perfectly with the post ww2 in my head.
Maybe im just drunk off pfe gains, i dont wanna show allocation but its stupid lucky

I have 5 years now of experience all in the midst of a bubble/recession coming, and for the first time i think i might be in the right positions with low risk that i... just hold while abusing interest rates. Did- i cant what the fuck, someone slap me and calm me down i cant even digest this
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rennstimp
  • #352
  • Nov 10, 2020 12:17am Nov 10, 2020 12:17am
Quoting renNstimpy
are we witnessing the post ww2 baby boom - record low unemployment, social divide, and a world wide event debt and a not credit worthy generation that has an interest in tangle assets such as gold out of fear. PFE has the vacine for covid thus american equity ending the world event, CNY down, dollar strong, overpriced tech down, employment is up, gdp is growing, and dollar remains strong. Someone slap me i know ive shown a few screenshots and this is a futures trading thread, but holy shit i cant even take this in. I know not much has happened yet,...
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rennstimp
  • #353
  • Nov 10, 2020 12:20am Nov 10, 2020 12:20am
im only speaking for 1-10 perhaps even 20y forecasts but i need a second opinion someone throw water on my face this could be a bull trap but only in typical -12 p/e spreads surreal.
rennstimp
  • #354
  • Nov 11, 2020 3:11am Nov 11, 2020 3:11am
bull market american equity wins again - time to enjoy it boys dont get crazy
rennstimp
  • #355
  • Edited 10:12am Nov 11, 2020 9:41am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting renNstimpy
im only speaking for 1-10 perhaps even 20y forecasts but i need a second opinion someone throw water on my face this could be a bull trap but only in typical -12 p/e spreads surreal.
Seems like a solid portfolio of stocks with some nice profits .

There are several ways to look at the overall market conditions at the moment. As many of you already know markets operate in cycles. The current cycle is over extended imho (the S&P500 is in a strong bull market since mar 2009). This artificial extension was created by the FED printing dollars and pumping money into the market so Covid-19 wouldn't cripple the economy. The longer an extension last the heavier the correction will be imho. My focus will be on sectors who will operate good under all kind of market conditions.

That being said if earning keep rising never sell a winning team . Manage that portfolio.

  1. If you invest in usd stock and your base currency is not the USD -> hedge dollar
  2. Track the sector
  3. Track stock earnings/performance
  4. Compare the stock against the competitors.

Some sector thoughts:

Financials with huge outstanding loans might get a hard time into the future. Currently clients/costumer might get some deferrals on their debt and interest rate payments. If companies wouldn't receive stimulus or other deferrals the banks are taking a huge hit.

Energy stock have been hit hard and a recovering. Looking 10 years ahead i think the onces who are able to adapt into the new clean energy space are the winner for the next decades. To soon to tell but hydrogen might also be an area to focus on.

Some stock comments:

INTC will face some downwards pressure into the near future imho. AMD did release their latest cpu line and it's crushing their current lineup. Their gpu lineup also did show some really good performance compared to Nvidia.

I guess you get the picture hope you can maximize your profits.

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #356
  • Nov 11, 2020 12:53pm Nov 11, 2020 12:53pm
appreciate the feedback, i did downgrade/upgrade a few since i didnt post the allocation but appreciate the feedback on the intc. Honestly had no idea, mainly just liked the p/e, yeah its a fairly moderate defensive portfolio i think in theory wouldnt take too much of a hit in event of random traceback and whatnot, might be abit conservative but hmmm

Energy positions are funny positions that have always been kinda awkward i realize most people just pretty much copying buffett ends up in pharma sector or tech [not info/tech] the better p/e ones as well as banks, utilities always just been a quite slow sector that ive liked, guess made me alittle money but might be abit too conservative.

Downgraded MGM and INTC for a few other ones, trying to keep diversified since i prefer that over too concentrated but with a few favorites obviously. Might lean more aggressive in future but still at kinda shocked at monday gap up, hope money flowing to anyone else in this thread as well gl and thanks li
rennstimp
  • #357
  • Nov 17, 2020 3:46am Nov 17, 2020 3:46am
Just some inside from Berkshire 13F to get inspired
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #358
  • Dec 13, 2020 6:02pm Dec 13, 2020 6:02pm
xau looks decent 1835 - 1840s
rennstimp
  • #359
  • Dec 21, 2020 5:54am Dec 21, 2020 5:54am
im pulling so fucking hard equity markets / vix up too fucking much shit isnt right
rennstimp
  • #360
  • Last Post: Dec 21, 2020 5:58am Dec 21, 2020 5:58am
gold treasury notes and maybe abit of foreign markets is my move - not interested in this action way too fucking stressful this time around, being hyperbolic but looks very much like 09 would love to hear a second opinion
rennstimp
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