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futuresNoptions trading - mostly indices/commodities

  • #321
  • Sep 2, 2020 10:07am Sep 2, 2020 10:07am
Quoting renNstimpy
anyone trading futures atm? alot of movement on /gc and /cl /cl sharp drop hanging at 41s support, might enter - not sure /cl always feel so fucking unpredictable for the volume. Ive made gains there but feel like everytime just getting lucky idk just scalping it for now
/cl support seems strong so far though at high 41s range though after drop from 42

Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} /cl support seems strong so far though at high 41s range though after drop from 42
if 41s holds could see a decent retrace given the drop happened in a 5m candle hmmm yeah i think we're getting retrace
rennstimp
  • #322
  • Sep 2, 2020 10:36am Sep 2, 2020 10:36am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} /cl support seems strong so far though at high 41s range though after drop from 42 {quote} if 41s holds could see a decent retrace given the drop happened in a 5m candle hmmm yeah i think we're getting retrace
Seems like 41,43 holds for the moment on H4
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #323
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:42pm Sep 2, 2020 2:42pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Seems like 41,43 holds for the moment on H4 {image}
retrace seems to be a light rally or correction
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rennstimp
  • #324
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:43pm Sep 2, 2020 2:43pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} retrace seems to be a light rally or correction {image}
wrong candles
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rennstimp
  • #325
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:46pm Sep 2, 2020 2:46pm
on res break would look fairly bullish

currently testing it
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rennstimp
  • #326
  • Sep 2, 2020 3:07pm Sep 2, 2020 3:07pm
Quoting renNstimpy
on res break would look fairly bullish currently testing it {image} {image}
res break 5m /cl
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rennstimp
  • #327
  • Sep 8, 2020 12:35pm Sep 8, 2020 12:35pm
Some educational content on trading trendline breakout followed by a retests (on ES 5 min chart)

  1. trendline break
  2. retest (on trendline and weekly fib)

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #328
  • Edited 12:56pm Sep 8, 2020 12:41pm | Edited 12:56pm
Some educational content on Trendline EMA bounce trade (5M ES chart).
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #329
  • Sep 10, 2020 2:30am Sep 10, 2020 2:30am
One of the traders I follow published a great article explaining what’s been going on with the markets lately. Fair warning, it’s 94 pages long but it’s worth the read:

https://osam.com/Commentary/upside-down-markets
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #330
  • Oct 13, 2020 4:02am Oct 13, 2020 4:02am
Quoting EF5
One of the traders I follow published a great article explaining what’s been going on with the markets lately. Fair warning, it’s 94 pages long but it’s worth the read: https://osam.com/Commentary/upside-down-markets
appreciate it in pretty beta stuff at the moment with plenty of liquid in event of swings
rennstimp
  • #331
  • Oct 19, 2020 2:47am Oct 19, 2020 2:47am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} appreciate it in pretty beta stuff at the moment with plenty of liquid in event of swings
opening shorts on spx and nq not large positions but from ta perspective and a few other variables thinking we might see some red today, to what degree not sure. But I think with alot of earnings coming there will be speculation. Opening gap up was expected but spx and nas gapping up 1% seems abit too high pushing it if you ask me.
rennstimp
  • #332
  • Oct 19, 2020 2:58am Oct 19, 2020 2:58am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} opening shorts on spx and nq not large positions but from ta perspective and a few other variables thinking we might see some red today, to what degree not sure. But I think with alot of earnings coming there will be speculation. Opening gap up was expected but spx and nas gapping up 1% seems abit too high pushing it if you ask me.
trailing sls usually start swapping in profit my sl fills or trail 20-50%

used to do 75% but feel like depending on the situation and time your trading weighting for volume but yeah, nice correction off the gap up
rennstimp
  • #333
  • Oct 19, 2020 3:00am Oct 19, 2020 3:00am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} trailing sls usually start swapping in profit my sl fills or trail 20-50% used to do 75% but feel like depending on the situation and time your trading weighting for volume but yeah, nice correction off the gap up
everyone knows action happens on tuesday [feels like it atleast] but if support doesnt stable dow/spx/nq look fairly bearish but we are still alot of volume to come still was a very sharp gap up after turn of events
rennstimp
  • #334
  • Oct 19, 2020 3:02am Oct 19, 2020 3:02am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} everyone knows action happens on tuesday [feels like it atleast] but if support doesnt stable dow/spx/nq look fairly bearish but we are still alot of volume to come still was a very sharp gap up after turn of events
closed decent scalp
rennstimp
  • #335
  • Oct 28, 2020 7:43am Oct 28, 2020 7:43am
spx/nq breaking some major supports or will bounce have a spread fairly bearish shouldve kept gc out of the spread made earlier this week and gains wouldve been nicer but still riding bear, personally think major trend breaking and we'll see blood, earnings arent weighing up to price. Interest rates have been lowered maybe /vx wouldve been better move not sure. Interest rates low, earnings arent adding up to price, and yeah personally think we could see new lows, i remember telling everyone q2 that q3/q4 might be deadly but just my thoughts
rennstimp
  • #336
  • Oct 28, 2020 7:49am Oct 28, 2020 7:49am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} in hindsight stupid /gc move from my research /gc upward/downward when spx/dow are in the middle of recovering not approaching highs, stupid position in bear spread, regardless still bear nas dow and spx
3300 resistance test if breaks 3180-3200 seems next support on that break we may even see 2700 not sure but already stated reasoning / its a sellers market seems like. Great opportunity if bounce and if breaks well then this will be second time getting lucky with similar spread
rennstimp
  • #337
  • Nov 3, 2020 2:17am Nov 3, 2020 2:17am
/NQ is at a major support right now, 10.9-11k.

Now NQ did end higher than the previous correction which could mean a godlike bullish entry, however if this breaks. we are looking at a pitfall hard, i dont believe the 11.7k will hold.

Everyone knows im a tech bear and ive been riding these drawdowns on the nas and spx for past few days but with elections just closed

Looking at the overall SPX every sector in SPX is fairly low, NQ rising based off of covid.

Is NQ bound for a correction or are we seeing a hard test on the 11k.

Im looking for someone to change my mind here if anyone can, or an open discussion.

I think most people would agree that tech is eventually going to correct the answer is when, but I cant see a better time at the moment.

Im not chucking the bank at nasdaq shorts, but i am considering taking a swing at this. With earnings and several other factors ive already mentioned in previous posts when i entered some of these positions I need to hear a second opinion on this

Thoughts on both the best instruments/position lineups for this forecast and overall discussion. I would love to see some disagreements.
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rennstimp
  • #338
  • Nov 3, 2020 11:29am Nov 3, 2020 11:29am
Quoting renNstimpy
/NQ is at a major support right now, 10.9-11k. Now NQ did end higher than the previous correction which could mean a godlike bullish entry, however if this breaks. we are looking at a pitfall hard, i dont believe the 11.7k will hold. Everyone knows im a tech bear and ive been riding these drawdowns on the nas and spx for past few days but with elections just closed Looking at the overall SPX every sector in SPX is fairly low, NQ rising based off of covid. Is NQ bound for a correction or are we seeing a hard test on the 11k. Im looking for someone...
I am staying on the sideline. The outcome is uncertain leaving us with to many variable:

  1. Trump vs Biden
  2. Control of House and Senate
  3. mail votes taking their time -> leaving market in uncertainty
  4. will Trump accept mail votes after election day
  5. will Trump leave if Biden wins
  6. How will the US citizens react -> Riots???
  7. How will the USD react
  8. New stimulus deal or more delays???
  9. Fed intervention wild swings??

Some trading thought:

  1. I don't know if it's to late to develop an option hedge strategy ???
  2. If the election is a close call and the results got extended -> the market is choppy

    1. VIX

  3. Energy (OIL stocks of fracking companies, oil futures) might be worth a short if Biden wins with some leverage on the rising covid infections. I think there is more room for the downside then the upside. If Trump wins there might be a small relief rally and then it still can be shorted
  4. Lock your eyes on the market / twitter news and do some old fashion priceaction scalping futures

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #339
  • Nov 4, 2020 4:36am Nov 4, 2020 4:36am
We are starting to look like insider traders lol
rennstimp
  • #340
  • Edited 5:02am Nov 4, 2020 4:43am | Edited 5:02am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} I am staying on the sideline. The outcome is uncertain leaving us with to many variable: Trump vs Biden Control of House and Senate mail votes taking their time -> leaving market in uncertainty will Trump accept mail votes after election day will Trump leave if Biden wins How will the US citizens react -> Riots??? How will the USD react New stimulus deal or more delays??? Fed intervention wild swings?? Some trading thought: I don't know if it's to late to develop an option hedge strategy ??? If the election is a close call and the...
CNY is crashing, dixy is rising cash is king right now. Still not explaining the leap from NQ might be foreign investors, not entirely sure. I think people want the dollar right now. The best instrument to play against that im not sure, ive rode my /nq bear down for enough to be happy, curious what your move is?

Vix could be an option but idk personally maybe an /es or /nq short would work, i would not advise /gc personally as of right now, maybe with a light spread of gas as well as a few commodities/equity. We'll see.
rennstimp
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