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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,581
  • Oct 30, 2020 4:04am Oct 30, 2020 4:04am
Quoting joyny
{quote} You should be millionere if trading so easy as you say.
Trading is easy if you have a strategy that's mechanic in execution and requires no GUESS WORK.
I'm happy with a wage - isn't that enough.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,582
  • Edited 4:39am Oct 30, 2020 4:27am | Edited 4:39am
I only use the chart to trade, nothing else....I think I am doing fine.....

TA is an art form, it requires a good degree of interpretation and creativity, it is all in the bar (not the wine bar : -(), patterns fail and failure fails making a better probability setup (due the numerous trapped traders) especially in the direction of the least resistance......a good set up has about 60% probability to succeeds for 1:1 RR, for a 1:2 it will be reduced to less than 50%.

Do the math and learn to trade only the best set ups which are two legs pull back in the direction of the trend and a major reversals after a break of a major trend line......
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,583
  • Oct 30, 2020 5:13am Oct 30, 2020 5:13am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Use forwardtesting in mt5 strategy tester. Optimize for example 2010 - 2017 then forwardtest 2017-now and will see how EA works with unknown future.
Already mentioned about this method. This is called in sample and out of sample testing and it comes from statistics.
  • #1,584
  • Oct 30, 2020 8:37am Oct 30, 2020 8:37am
Quoting ZenNy
I only use the chart to trade, nothing else....I think I am doing fine..... TA is an art form, it requires a good degree of interpretation and creativity, it is all in the bar (not the wine bar : -(), patterns fail and failure fails making a better probability setup (due the numerous trapped traders) especially in the direction of the least resistance......a good set up has about 60% probability to succeeds for 1:1 RR, for a 1:2 it will be reduced to less than 50%. Do the math and learn to trade only the best set ups which are two legs pull back...

I appreciate all approaches.


But it is very nice to run into someone that seems to have a similar path to mine. First time here, to my great surprise.

You wouldn't believe it, but one of my very first strategies is based on a "2nd pull back in trend" and it has been my single most stable strategy in the last 16 years!

One of the very few that I have not needed to make any changes to and it is just as consistently profitable.

All my break-out and my scalping and most of my range, counter-trend and trend trading strategies have needed regular optimization and/or changes. Some I even had to abandon altogether, even after years of profitability.

But not this simple trend strategy.


2nd pullback of a trend : scalp, intraday, swing, even position trading with it has been a pleasure.



Nice debates here. I personally find in each some important value.

Based on my own very limited imagination throughout the years of course , there are certainly more ways to react to a price's movement in order to make consistent profit than one can imagine.

An open-minded, creative approach. Diversification. Learning to adapt. Learning to learn incessantly from losing, to build from it something even better.

To not rely on ANY preconceived notion in the quest in developing any system, was also, for me, something that has saved me from missing crucial details. Crucial details without which my success would have been impossible.


Just some of the very many qualities I couldn't do without in this business.


I am though a bit saddened by the view that it would be impossible to make a living long-term trading currencies. It is most certainly stopping many in their progress.

An honest thorough search can bring proof of many successful forex traders and forex fund managers throughout the years, many still existing to this day.

Of course, no one can speak for the future, and machine learning is certainly making parts of this much much easier and is extremely interesting to me. But up to now, and without algos, there have been and still are plenty of successful forex traders.

I must add that anyone searching for the unrealistic "holy grail" gains most seem to be searching on FF and elsewhere on the internet will, of course, find nothing of any long-term value.



Happy trading all!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,585
  • Oct 30, 2020 8:52am Oct 30, 2020 8:52am
Quoting mtako
{quote} ... one of my very first strategies is based on a "2nd pull back in trend" and it has been my single most stable strategy in the last 16 years! ... But up to now, and without algos, there have been and still are plenty of successful forex traders. Happy trading all!
absolutely agree with u!
1. I have an EA running “1st pull back in trend with MA” and also working pretty well, I know 2nd pull back is a more confirmed signal and in progress of it! Similar idea!

2. Yes when much hope is on EAs, manual trading still has its value as many strategies are not recognizable by machines, but they are very profitable!
  • #1,586
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:23am Oct 30, 2020 11:23am
who has already tested hundreds of indicators and they do not work they do not build on the ea non-functioning indicators.
  • #1,587
  • Oct 30, 2020 2:01pm Oct 30, 2020 2:01pm
many are looking for some predictable pattern in the market, well it doesn’t exist.
only solution is trend trading.
of course this is just my own opinion.
  • #1,588
  • Edited 3:19pm Oct 30, 2020 2:03pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} I appreciate all approaches. But it is very nice to run into someone that seems to have a similar path to mine. First time here, to my great surprise. You wouldn't believe it, but one of my very first strategies is based on a "2nd pull back in trend" and it has been my single most stable strategy in the last 16 years! One of the very few that I have not needed to make any changes to and it is just as consistently profitable. All my break-out and my scalping and most of my range, counter-trend and trend trading strategies have needed regular...
I also trade ranges (especially after a false break out always in the direction of the least resistance). But ranges can be a bit more difficult of the other two mentioned.
If you look carefully all price actions travels in channels, once the appropriate lines are drawn it will give a visual idea of what is going on.
But most important I am very carefully in my approach, my serious money is only traded in the the 3 major European currencies (I also trade more instruments but with little money), I only take one trade a day and only when my set up happens in the initial hours of the European Open.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,589
  • Oct 30, 2020 2:26pm Oct 30, 2020 2:26pm
Quoting tiborf71
many are looking for some predictable pattern in the market, well it doesn’t exist. only solution is trend trading. of course this is just my own opinion.
you don’t have to believe this, just keep looking for samples.
lol.
  • #1,590
  • Nov 1, 2020 7:47am Nov 1, 2020 7:47am
You have said that there are a lot of answers that we may give you such as you are not a good trader. Have you not thought that maybe you are just not cut out to be a traer like other people are. It's not just about having knowledge or being good at programming and math but more of how you take yourself while trading. There are a couple of successful traders that are not good at programming or maths. You need to find out exactly what it is that hey do that works for them. With all of your knowledge and skills, why are you not able to come up with a good strategy.
  • #1,591
  • Nov 1, 2020 9:25am Nov 1, 2020 9:25am
Quoting Vudokus
You have said that there are a lot of answers that we may give you such as you are not a good trader. Have you not thought that maybe you are just not cut out to be a traer like other people are. It's not just about having knowledge or being good at programming and math but more of how you take yourself while trading. There are a couple of successful traders that are not good at programming or maths. You need to find out exactly what it is that hey do that works for them. With all of your knowledge and skills, why are you not able to come up with...
I understand very well his frustration and have learned the "hard way" as well. The basic rule is: nothing is random but there is no pattern or formula.
As engineer and/or programmer you try to find the formula, but the input parameters are
a) uncountable
b) partly unkknown for us "normal" retailers
I also tried the attempt of fourier analysis and all other stuff for signal processing. I see that I find some parts of what I have learned, but these small parts are not enough for automatical reactions on price actions.
That's why in Forex we talk about strategies and not about formulars. Like in a war...
  • #1,592
  • Nov 11, 2020 4:53am Nov 11, 2020 4:53am
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
  • #1,593
  • Dec 25, 2020 8:21am Dec 25, 2020 8:21am
Quoting RickM
Why does everyone here miss the bloody obvious. Fight the major players when Liquidity is exhausted on one side of the order book. How do we know there is an inbalance of the order flow? When price expansion away from market frequency hits the thin Liquidity boundary, only one side of the book is increasing. There is tools available for this and the big players can't fight you for a brief moment in time. And 5 to 20 seconds is all we need to make great profits.
Hello RickM,

Any chance you could expand on your post a bit further ?

In particular what tools are you referencing and maybe if you could "dumb" it down a bit more as to how you'd apply this to a trade.

Appreciate any help you can offer.

Godrich
  • #1,594
  • Edited 10:37pm Dec 25, 2020 4:33pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting godrich
{quote} Hello RickM, Any chance you could expand on your post a bit further ? In particular what tools are you referencing and maybe if you could "dumb" it down a bit more as to how you'd apply this to a trade. Appreciate any help you can offer. Godrich
Hi Godrich

At any one time, there is only a very limited amount of orders that sit on the market, enabling traders to be able to open up positions. Most liquidity being applied to the market during the day is aggressive market orders - in other words these are traders and Algo’s that are waiting for a reason to trade.
The problem is if every one decides to jump in and take a position around the same time, the traders exhaust the selling orders on a bullish trend or the buyer orders in a bearish trend. We are talking about a band of passive limit orders about 15 to 30 pips up or down for GBP pairs and any one time. Therefore price hits either a static inner boundary and pulls back to greater density or it hits exhaustion at the outer boundary and has to pull back due to zero useful liquidity.
So the most important tool needed is an appreciation of current volume currently hitting the market at any one time. Without increasing volume, price cannot trend with any purpose, therefore price tends to create large pullbacks and predictable expansion movements.
To dumb it down, if we see average or low volume being applied to the charts, we should be trading against breakouts, if we see increasing large volume levels occur with breakouts, we should trade with the breakout.
We should view the market not in timeframes and trends but in expansion levels and volume / density of orders.
Therefore the best tools are volume (an external source is needed like data from the futures exchange) a tool to measure every wave (a mouse to measure distance as the market acts like a Sine Wave with fixed frequency) and a viewing point where this action can be seen (30 second to 2 minute chart).
A good starting point is GeorgeAUS thread “Price core” thread where you will see some good examples of price expansion. The only factor George didn’t consider is the amount of volume being applied to the chart as he was considering a trade.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,595
  • Dec 29, 2020 5:57am Dec 29, 2020 5:57am
[quote = umbrella man; 12504266] {quote}我进入这个市场已有10多年了。看过有利可图的帐户。我将一个帐户定义为可盈利的帐户，如果到了年底，在扣除所有费用（包括您的工资）后，该帐户显示出一定的利润，或者至少达到了收支平衡。我正在谈论的帐户没有使用大杠杆（小于5），并且主要是在基本面上进行交易。例如，当美联储开始加息而几乎所有其他中央银行都在降息时，我认识的许多交易员都在进行美元多头交易，并持有了一年多。这样，他们不仅因融资而获得利息，而且在平仓后，他们也赚了很多钱。我必须说，我还没有看到任何一个基于新闻或技术分析（如开玩笑）进行交易的单日交易从长期来看是有利可图的，甚至没有。根据您的建议，长期运行可以连续三年。[/ quote]
Your profit method is the same as what I think, except that I have a short time in the industry and have no time to verify with profit for a long time（I come from a non English speaking country and use online translation to express my opinions）
  • #1,596
  • Dec 29, 2020 6:45am Dec 29, 2020 6:45am
[quote = josephcom; 12504195] 2019年10月13日更新：请阅读这篇文章（第一篇文章）后，看看这篇文章也（单击链接）以更好地理解我的意思。谢谢...好的，现在是我提大问题了！三年多来，我一直在尝试在外汇交易中找到长期成功的策略，但徒劳！当我说3年时，我说的是每天5到10个小时左右的时间！！！在某种程度上，我浪费了三年宝贵的时间。我是一生中最出色的计算机程序员之一。在数学和统计学/概率论方面，我绝对很棒。我已经测试了数百种不同的策略（机械的和手动的）。我知道您或其他成员可能提出的几乎所有可能的答案：也许您没有交易能力。造成问题的是您。交易是一门艺术。您无法使用计算机程序进行测量。您' 只是另一个寻找借口的失败者。我已经在Internet上看到了数以百万计的成功策略。这不是讨论它的合适论坛。去别的地方。...在进一步解释我的观点之前，请查看以下三个图表，并猜测它们是哪个货币对以及在哪个时间范围内？请立即执行并查看附件。在本文结尾处，我将告诉您答案。我听说过的最令人沮丧的答案（我将使用不同的形容词！）答案之一是，您不应该要求外汇老师查看他们的交易。这可能是我能想到的最奇怪/最不公平的论点。这不是一个玩笑！这是关于学生宝贵的生命。事先知道他们成功进入的道路是他们的权利。否则 就像只听卖方的话而不实际看到和驾驶汽车来购买汽车一样！如果问题出在他们的隐私上，他们可以简单地模糊/消失这些数字并向我们显示净值曲线本身。现在最后一部分，为什么显示不到3年的结果是没有用的？因为市场状况一直在变化。在某些年份，您只有掷硬币才能赢大钱！例如，给定的货币对可能会在2017年全年保持趋势，在这种情况下，即使是最荒谬的趋势跟踪策略也会导致一些惊人的交易。但是，这不算在内。我们至少需要三年才能看到一项策略的成果，才能将其称为成功的策略。你不相信我的话吗？好，请参阅下一段。您是否能够猜测所附图像显示的是哪种货币对以及显示的时间范围？女士们，先生们，它们不过是Google表格产生的一系列绝对随机数！您可以在其上成功插入随机指标，RSI，趋势线，斐波那契等，它们都可以工作！！！看看您在某些部分怎么说“图表对支撑/阻力位做出了反应”！这是什么意思？就像我说的那样，即使投掷硬币也可以产生一系列成功的交易，这就是为什么我说我们至少要等到3年才能看到成功的策略/交易者。我不会成为破坏你的梦想和希望的消极能量的人。我的意思是，您拥有知道的权利，这是您毕生的消费。我很乐意（实际上是被带走了）看到这个真实账户的交易结果，并且连续三年在这个论坛上，在这种情况下，我将开始逐字逐句地研究论坛的所有帖子，记下即使需要一年左右的时间。这个论坛上有人愿意展示他/她的结果吗？来吧，请给我们一些希望我们需要看到一个曲线（不必在上面有数字，只需一个图形（股权）曲线）非常感谢。{image} {image} {image} [/ quote]


I have seen a few successful traders but it is difficult to show you his yield curve, because I have not seen it myself, but I have followed his orders, and many of them are very profitable. I can tell you that he is not a technical trader. !
At least he claims that, although he has copied a very thick well-known technical book, copied by hand, I have also seen the photos he copied as a reward to motivate myself!
In the past two years, he has exchanged at least nearly 1 million yuan for the principal in the British pound and the non-US for more than tens of millions of yuan (here, if you have a good understanding of the exchange rate of the US dollar to the yuan, it is the result of the year of 2019. This has been profitable several times) and this is only the result of a few weeks!
This person is an individual Chinese boss, and has 10 years of experience in speculation in the industry. He almost went bankrupt in the past two years. I have followed his list and told me that making money must never be short-term. Pay attention to the essence
（I am from a non-Native English speaking city and there is an online translator for you）
  • #1,597
  • Dec 30, 2020 4:37am Dec 30, 2020 4:37am
Quoting Parmalat
I have a few strategies (context + tactics, highly adaptable) that would make me a succesful retail trader in the long run, if: 1. I could automate them so that I don't need to wake up at night when a signal is triggered; 2. I had enough starting money so I could be a full-time trader and trade a lot (an account with 1 million USD cash, aiming for a 30-35% or even 50% yearly profit would be ok); However, running a 20.000 USD account for a 35% profit, considering how much time is involved, considering that I can make more money in other business...
You have chosen to appear at FF after 6 years.
I read your comments on FF saying you would not share two articles that brought wisdom to you.
I believe in destiny so I don't believe in keeping secrets.
I have shared them here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13335489
I would appreciate if you would share your experience too now that you are financially secure in another job.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,598
  • Dec 30, 2020 4:51am Dec 30, 2020 4:51am
yes, i saw it
  • #1,599
  • Dec 31, 2020 6:04am Dec 31, 2020 6:04am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Godrich At any one time, there is only a very limited amount of orders that sit on the market, enabling traders to be able to open up positions. Most liquidity being applied to the market during the day is aggressive market orders - in other words these are traders and Algo’s that are waiting for a reason to trade. The problem is if every one decides to jump in and take a position around the same time, the traders exhaust the selling orders on a bullish trend or the buyer orders in a bearish trend. We are talking about a band of passive...
Hi RickM,

So that means we can't "guess" where the liquidity/order flow lies just by looking at candlestick data?

Cheers!
  • #1,600
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:46pm Dec 31, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting unknown7
{quote} Hi RickM, So that means we can't "guess" where the liquidity/order flow lies just by looking at candlestick data? Cheers!
Hi unknown

We actually can guess quite well if you research historical data on expansion levels of a pair going back a few years.
The only issue is without knowing the current volume levels, we risk becoming trapped either wiithin a grind or miss the chance of riding a grind.
I often just use shape of the grind to determine current volume levels. As a general guide, volume is just average within the order flow area if price on M1 is offering generous pullbacks at each minor swing.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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