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Backtesting the Most Popular Strategies on FF

  • #21
  • Oct 14, 2020 1:59am Oct 14, 2020 1:59am
Quoting daivid40
I backtested the trading made simple strategy for 3 separate years: 2013, 2017, and 2020. For all backtests, I used $10000 as an initial balance and since there aren’t any specific MM rules, I used 1 lot as a fixed lot size for all the positions. For the first backtest I picked 2013. I opened 171 positions on H4 and I only traded when the green TDI crosses the red one. I mean I didn’t trade the bouncing setups. And of course avoid consolidation which is detected in this strategy by ema, when it’s flat. Well, to be honest, I expected a lot worse....

reply by Tekkies in the Trading Made Simple thread.

And you bet your lame horse on that back-testing?

- Not once mentioned that any filter is used.
> Did he use TDI green angle 12/2 for buy, 2/4 no trade, 4/6 sell
> Stoch confirm direction
> Did he check for short / long term trends.
In fact did he use any of those points in post#647?
Not once did he mentioned or acknowledge that TDI repaint some crossover.
- Not once did he mentioned the discrepancy between what you see on a live chart and backtesting chart
Not once mentioned the Modelling quality of data and other points used by the backtester.

He did this " I only traded when the green TDI crosses the red one" and the results are the reflection of that.
Did you even bother to watch that video?
Did you notice that he blindly placed trades's on every crossover, no Stoch used at all to confirm direction, let alone the other points.

Those backtesting result's are just as meaningless as your reference to them, Emmanuel
What else are you going to dig up in your effort to remove TDI from this thread?
-----
When " I only traded when the green TDI crosses the red one" already gives "1.5%. It kind of broke even."

........... What are the odd that 1.5% can be increase to 65% <> 85% with post#647

Quoting Tekkies
{quote} And you bet your lame horse on that back-testing? - Not once mentioned that any filter is used. > Did he use TDI green angle 12/2 for buy, 2/4 no trade, 4/6 sell > Stoch confirm direction > Did he check for short / long term trends. In fact did he use any of those points in post#647? Not once did he mentioned or acknowledge that TDI repaint some crossover. - Not once did he mentioned the discrepancy between what you see on a live chart and backtesting chart Not once mentioned the Modelling quality of data and other points used by the backtester....
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #22
  • Oct 14, 2020 3:15am Oct 14, 2020 3:15am
[quote=daivid40;13210441]I backtested the trading made simple strategy for 3 separate years: 2013, 2017, and 2020.

Hi

The perception left with me is that it is a rather useless test "bashing" the TDI - a well know indicator while the main aim of the video is to "catch/attract" followers while also misusing FxBlue with more meaningless "nice looking" graphs for possible commercial gain.

Trade well / Mos

PS - The post is also misused to further some peoples own agenda
- Newbies - beware of most of those "shiny/fancy" looking videos on youtube and people that refer you to it.
Don't limit yourself!!
  • #23
  • Edited 6:49am Oct 14, 2020 3:22am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting daivid40
I backtested the trading made simple strategy for 3 separate years: 2013, 2017, and 2020. For all backtests, I used $10000 as an initial balance and since there aren’t any specific MM rules, I used 1 lot as a fixed lot size for all the positions. For the first backtest I picked 2013. I opened 171 positions on H4 and I only traded when the green TDI crosses the red one. I mean I didn’t trade the bouncing setups. And of course avoid consolidation which is detected in this strategy by ema, when it’s flat. Well, to be honest, I expected a lot worse....
Sadly, you backtested using a MAXIMUM of 3 entry criteria, according to what you wrote. On 2 of the tests, it seems that you were finding every green cross red then filtering ONLY with an ema. That is FAR from the entry criteria that BigE presented, so all you have shown here is exactly as expected: A single signal cannot be traded profitably without context.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #24
  • Oct 14, 2020 7:30am Oct 14, 2020 7:30am
Thank you guys for your clarification.

I explained some of those points you mentioned in the video specifically those related to post 647 however there are some fair points.

Believe me, I never want to see a strategy fail. Even when I was backtesting, sometimes I didn’t want to open some positions because I knew they would fail with high probability but I didn’t want to enter my judgment or understanding of the market in the strategy. I wanted the results to be as if a newbie were doing that so that’s why I mentioned in the video all is said on post 647 are vague.

Quote
> Stoch confirm direction
> Did he check for short / long term trends.
In fact did he use any of those points in post#647?

I didn’t use this because there’s no solid definition for them. How do you detect them in this system? I know several ways of using them. for example, I mentioned a few of them for stoch in the video. If you clarify that I’ll do another backtest and add the results to the original post.

Quote
Not once did he mentioned the discrepancy between what you see on a live chart and backtesting chart
It’s not very important here because I backtested on h4 and h1 so somethings like spread, slippage, execution speed and etc are not important, plus those factors are normally against you and worsen the results if applied.

Quote
Not once mentioned the Modelling quality of data and other points used by the backtester.
Fair point. It’s every tick

I’m working on another strategy now but if you like, clarify those points so I’ll backtest again and I’ll be happier than you, or at least the same as you, to see 70% to 80% profit.

Quote
Sadly, you backtested using a MAXIMUM of 3 entry criteria, according to what you wrote. On 2 of the tests, it seems that you were finding every green cross red then filtering ONLY with an ema. That is FAR from the entry criteria that BigE presented, so all you have shown here is exactly as expected: A single signal is cannot be traded profitably without context.
As I said, please clarify your entry point, other than crossing tdi, so I’ll do it again.

Quote
The perception left with me is that it is a rather useless test "bashing" the TDI - a well know indicator while the main aim of the video is to "catch/attract" followers while also misusing FxBlue with more meaningless "nice looking" graphs for possible commercial gain.
It’s not true but I respect your opinion. By the way, if you follow, I’ll be happy
Quote
PS - The post is also misused to further some peoples own agenda
- Newbies - beware of most of those "shiny/fancy" looking videos on youtube and people that refer you to it.
That’s actually correct but mine isn’t fancy. Actually not only do I not give them the euphoria of turning $100 to millions, I even take their hopes of making lots of money from trading easily. If I had wanted to deceive people and take money out of their pockets, I would have picked the first approach, and believe me, I know how to do that better than many of those people.
  • #25
  • Oct 14, 2020 7:41am Oct 14, 2020 7:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You need to talk to Twee, otherwise being a commercial member will prevent you from enjoying forex factory.
I actually contacted them through the contact form on FF but I didn't get any answers. They probably see it as mosiskv sees in post 22. Anyway, it's their site and they like it that way.

I don't have a big problem with that other than liking and not liking posts so every time someone writes something that he/she thinks I like, consider it like and if someone writes anything that she/he feels I don't like, consider it as not like and there's no dislike.
  • #26
  • Oct 14, 2020 3:26pm Oct 14, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting daivid40
Thank you guys for your clarification. I explained some of those points you mentioned in the video specifically those related to post 647 however there are some fair points. Believe me, I never want to see a strategy fail. Even when I was backtesting, sometimes I didn’t want to open some positions because I knew they would fail with high probability but I didn’t want to enter my judgment or understanding of the market in the strategy. I wanted the results to be as if a newbie were doing that so that’s why I mentioned in the video all is said on...
Hi Daivid.
Did not even known that my post was copy to this thread.
- TDI can not be backtest with certainty. The problem is that TDI Post 25 repaint TDI setup (green cross red) on chart refresh and only a few of them.
- Also the TDI setup on a live chart non-refreshed and refreshed is not the same as the TDI setup on a back testing chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: becausefs.PNG Size: 91 KB

- You really want to back test you have to plot either everyday trendlines form crossover to crossover as they occur.
- a Little more unreliable is to plot trend lines on historical crossover.
(Problem you would not know which crossover was repainted)
> Save chart as "Tester.tpl"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: likede.PNG Size: 71 KB

Take note that the blue trend lines are profit and the yellow lines are loss.
- With all those blue trend lines any back testing will not give a such a low profit factor as what you have found.

Trade save.
  • #27
  • Oct 14, 2020 6:15pm Oct 14, 2020 6:15pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Hi Daivid. Did not even known that my post was copy to this thread. - TDI can not be backtest with certainty. The problem is that TDI Post 25 repaint TDI setup (green cross red) on chart refresh and only a few of them. - Also the TDI setup on a live chart non-refreshed and refreshed is not the same as the TDI setup on a back testing chart. {image} - You really want to back test you have to plot either everyday trendlines form crossover to crossover as they occur. -...
I’m not sure if I understand you correctly but I think what you say is that you enter on crosses as soon as they happen, which means you don’t wait for the candles to be closed, where an indicator repaint can happen.
According to what I saw in the rules, you need to wait for the closure of the candles when a cross happens. If so, some of the blue lines on your last pic don’t end up in profit.
  • #28
  • Oct 14, 2020 6:24pm Oct 14, 2020 6:24pm
For the second backtests I decided to pick the Laura thread called Roadmap. I’ve done reading the posts and figured out how it works.

I like the system in general because I use the same concept with different types (dynamic types) of MAs, however, roadmap strategy heavily depends on traders’ call and their experience with it especially when it comes to stop loss and take profit. In other words, it’s up to you to a great extent what exiting method, mentioned in the strategy, you pick for every trade.

For instance, in regards to tp, do you exit on yesterday’s highs or lows or you follow the trend and exit when the ema55 channel is broken by the 8ema channel? It’s up to you so different traders will see different results.

Plus, there are 4 advanced setups, along with 2 main ones, that can totally change the results of the 2 main setups as they are assumed riskier and may be less profitable.

That’s why I decided to backtest the main setups first and if the strategy generates some profits, add other setups to compare the results.

I’ll also pick the ema55 channel as the exiting method unless an instrument has reached its ADR. In that case, I pick the closest tp which can be yesterday’s high/low or the break of ema55.

Anyway, I’ll backtest it and explain the whole process. I hope something valuable comes out of the backtests.
  • #29
  • Oct 15, 2020 1:28am Oct 15, 2020 1:28am
Quoting daivid40
{quote} I’m not sure if I understand you correctly but I think what you say is that you enter on crosses as soon as they happen, which means you don’t wait for the candles to be closed, where an indicator repaint can happen. According to what I saw in the rules, you need to wait for the closure of the candles when a cross happens. If so, some of the blue lines on your last pic don’t end up in profit.
Post nr for this reason please > wait for the closure of the candles when a cross happens
> some of the blue lines on. Use this indicator for clarification: Post 16,973
-------
Post#6......
Entries and exits...
We Enter a trade when green crosses red on the TDI at the beginning of that candle... Ifit's candle 3 or more don't enter... find another trade set up. The only exception is if green bounces off red and continues... it's ok to re-enter on the bounce...
Exit your trade when the green TDI line goes flat, starts to hook over or makes a check mark reversal
Post#115....
Here is a training chart... yes, yes, yes there are many trades on it but look at the TDI Blue boxes.
A Normal entry is when green crosses red on the TDI (and you can actually see the green on the other side).
  • #30
  • Oct 15, 2020 6:19am Oct 15, 2020 6:19am
Quoting daivid40
{quote} I’m not sure if I understand you correctly but I think what you say is that you enter on crosses as soon as they happen, which means you don’t wait for the candles to be closed, where an indicator repaint can happen. According to what I saw in the rules, you need to wait for the closure of the candles when a cross happens. If so, some of the blue lines on your last pic don’t end up in profit.
there was confusion in that TMS thread because different traders use different versions of the TDI and also with different settings... of the RSI period, price type, etc.

the OP Big E of the TMS thread use the original version of the Traders Dynamic Index (2005) and this version only updates the at the close of the bar, therefore when the bar closes the TDI green will be updated... and if there is a TDI signal he would open a trade when a new APB/HA candle #1 open with a change in colour. If there is no TDI signal he wait for the next APB/HA #2 and check the TDI for signal again.

there must be a reversal and then check if there is TDI signal, then he would enter a trade. Refer to Post#261.
note the reversal is a price action pattern which needs the Stoch(8,3,3,) %K to cross %D.

my question is when you run your strategy tester, can your strategy tester do multi - timeframe check when back-testing? For example when there is a H4 TDI signal, can your back-testing program check and verify the D1 TDI conditions?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #31
  • Oct 15, 2020 11:31am Oct 15, 2020 11:31am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Post nr for this reason please > wait for the closure of the candles when a cross happens > some of the blue lines on. Use this indicator for clarification: Post 16,973 ------- Post#6...... Entries and exits... We Enter a trade when green crosses red on the TDI at the beginning of that candle... Ifit's candle 3 or more don't enter... find another trade set up. The only exception is if green bounces off red and continues... it's ok to re-enter on the bounce... Exit...
I did exactly what is on those posts except for the indi on the post 16973 because it's not in the set of rules made by the OP but I'll look at that as well, thanks.

Quote
the OP Big E of the TMS thread use the original version of the Traders Dynamic Index (2005) and this version only updates the at the close of the bar, therefore when the bar closes the TDI green will be updated... and if there is a TDI signal he would open a trade when a new APB/HA candle #1 open with a change in colour. If there is no TDI signal he wait for the next APB/HA #2 and check the TDI for signal again.

there must be a reversal and then check if there is TDI signal, then he would enter a trade. Refer to Post#261.
note...

Thanks for the clarification. I did all of them except for using the cross of stoch as the sign of trend reversal. I'll add this filter and backtest again.

Quote
my question is when you run your strategy tester, can your strategy tester do multi - timeframe check when back-testing? For example when there is a H4 TDI signal, can your back-testing program check and verify the D1 TDI conditions?

Yes, you can open the charts for other timeframes and add your indis. It's not exactly like when you use mt4. for example, you need to add tools or indicators for each timeframe separately but it's possible. There are some other software such as soft4fx or forex tester that are better for this purpose but they are not free. Anyway, the answer to your question is yes.
  • #32
  • Oct 21, 2020 7:52am Oct 21, 2020 7:52am
As I said in the previous posts, I picked the Roadmap system by LauraT for the second backtest.

I backtested the strategy 3 times, each time with a different approach, on 5 minute timeframe. The results weren’t green for the first 2 attempts; however, after changing some factors, the account grew around 8% for one month.

It’s worth noting that, when I say "changing", I don’t mean over-optimization. I didn’t scroll back on the chart to optimize the system based on the losing positions.
What I did was, I thought about the nature of this strategy and changed a few things that are important for such a strategy to be successful.

The results of first backtest
https://www.fxblue.com/users/roadmap1
The results of second backtest
https://www.fxblue.com/users/roadmap2
The result of third backtest
https://www.fxblue.com/users/roadmap3

Watch the following video to see the entire backtesting process and the changes I made:

Inserted Video

  • #33
  • Oct 25, 2020 8:15pm Oct 25, 2020 8:15pm
One of the members on baybypips suggested a strategy on this post. It's a strategy introduced in a youtube video in which the person claims his simple ma based strategy has generated 20% from just one pair after 6 months. He suggests you can add more pairs and for each pair, you can earn 20% after 6 months! Imagine how much we can gain if we trade 20 or 30 pairs!

Of course we all know that's BS but I decided to give it a try. Maybe it's not that profitable but it might give us some profit, who knows!

I backtested the strategy 100 times within the same time period that he did and followed all the rules and conditions that he mentions in his video.

Well, no wonder it was a false claim. The account not only didn't make 20% but we lost around 13% during that period.
https://www.fxblue.com/users/tsc1

I also recorded the backtesting process so you can see every taken position. Since the video is supposed to be for beginners, I put some quotes from the trading in the zone by Mark Douglas on the backtesting section of the video.

You can watch the entire backtesting process in this video:
Inserted Video
  • #34
  • Oct 30, 2020 9:08pm Oct 30, 2020 9:08pm
The next strategy that I backtested is related to another youtube channel. It's apparently a channel that backtests some trading strategy to show people how profitable they are.

Well, I watched the video but that wasn't an unbiased backtesting. It's more like a false promise giving false information in order to attract as many subscriptions as possible and I think it's been successful. Well, what can I say, people love simple stuff especially if it's supposed to make them rich overnight.

This is not even a complete strategy. It's just MACD crossover plus MA200. And this strategy has a 60% win rate with a 1:1.5 rr, according to the video. I knew those kinds of stats are not true but I decided to backtest the strategy to see what the real numbers are.

You can see the results on fxblue here:
https://www.fxblue.com/users/macdtest

This is the video where he explains the strategy as well as my entire backtesting process:

Inserted Video
  • #35
  • Nov 9, 2020 4:07pm Nov 9, 2020 4:07pm
try backtesting the hole demand supply concept, strategy... say 4hr zone, 1hr confirmation and entry or even lower then that. there are quite a few threads on here about SD, but to keep things simple. cheers
  • #36
  • Nov 9, 2020 7:45pm Nov 9, 2020 7:45pm
Quoting 1odi
try backtesting the hole demand supply concept, strategy... say 4hr zone, 1hr confirmation and entry or even lower then that. there are quite a few threads on here about SD, but to keep things simple. cheers
Thanks for the suggestion but I think I made my point which is backtesting a strategy thoroughly before live trading and see if it has an edge.

Just a few words for those who follow this thread, if any left.

I've been trading since 2006 and I know which strategy works and which ones don't but I wanted to show to newbies this fact that there are lots of false claims around the forex world.

Of course, I decided to backtest some other strategies related to the threads of FF as well but since the admins of this site decided to transfer this thread to the commercial section, I can't develop the topic in a way that I want. For example, I can't show the results to the OPs and the followers of the threads that I backtest their strategies so that we might have a productive conversation, or most of the new traders can't see this thread because it's not updated in the live feed.


Anyway, I think I did my job here. Maybe I backtest some strategies every now and then and put the results in the thread I have on babypips.

I hope this thread has been useful for people

Have profitable trades
  • #37
  • Edited Nov 11, 2020 1:40am Nov 10, 2020 6:13pm | Edited Nov 11, 2020 1:40am
Quoting daivid40
{quote} Thanks for the suggestion but I think I made my point which is backtesting a strategy thoroughly before live trading and see if it has an edge. Just a few words for those who follow this thread, if any left. I've been trading since 2006 and I know which strategy works and which ones don't but I wanted to show to newbies this fact that there are lots of false claims around the forex world.
hi david40, thanks for the interesting thread and helping out newer traders like myself. Which strategies do you know that work? I’ve been meddling around with lots but they all seem to fall at the last hurdle.

Thanks in advance,

Sargent
  • #38
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:51am Dec 7, 2020 3:51am
Quoting daivid40
{quote} This is the question that one of my friends asked me and took me to the old days when I would read every topic popping up on forex forums such as forex factory, I think it was 2007. Like most people around here, I was looking for a profitable strategy... actually no, I was trying to find the holy grail, a system with no flaw, is that familiar to you? Anyway, that's another story. When my friend asked that question, the first thing that came to my mind was, I don't think so. Have you tried all of the strategies there? , I asked myself, maybe...
Most strategies will probably lose in the long run. How many years will you test? How many days does it take to setup and test a strategy?
  • #39
  • Dec 28, 2021 1:33pm Dec 28, 2021 1:33pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi David40 The best method in deciding whether a strategy is profitable on Forex factory is to look through the list of posters that were around at the start of the thread, see if they are still there years later. Looking at the Trading made simple thread, only 1 long term trader remains there - that should answer your question about that strategy. About two years ago I build a EA to see if the strategy was any good, here is what I found. 1.. It has a profit factor of about 1.18 if you trade the M15 or Day charts. That is not good enough...
Hi RickM,
I'm stucking and many confused with many trading system in FF.
I did backtest for many system. However, it is not profitable for me. I dont say system not good, maybe I am not intelligent enough.
Could you suggest the simplest profitable trading system in your mind? I will dig and practice it.
Many thanks.
  • #40
  • Edited 4:22pm Dec 28, 2021 4:08pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting livetolove03
{quote} Hi RickM, I'm stucking and many confused with many trading system in FF. I did backtest for many system. However, it is not profitable for me. I dont say system not good, maybe I am not intelligent enough. Could you suggest the simplest profitable trading system in your mind? I will dig and practice it. Many thanks.
Hi Livetolove

If you want the truth, drop leverage and move onto trading stocks. Just buy an US index and buy pullbacks for the next 30 years.
You will be in profit 100% guarantee you.

OK, sound a bit boring but want a bit more excitement.
Buy Bitcoin or Ethereum pullbacks for the next 10 years and you SHOULD be in profit but I can't guarantee that.

OK, you want higher risk but good reward
Trade Forex / metals on the Day chart using Stats method on his thread "PASR long term, stress free trading" - and you maybe nicely in profit in a few years.

OK, you want a good risk reward strategy then get ready to roll up your sleeves and become a scalper.
Trade forex / metals on the M1 chart looking for reversal setups on exhausion events - a bit of practice and you can earn a reasonable wage and "live your dream"

OK, you want to fly in Lear jets and live in a huge mansion trading forex - Keep dreamin.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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