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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,801
  • Edited 9:06am Oct 31, 2020 8:41am | Edited 9:06am
The financial markets, like many other things in life, go through cycles. One of the challenges in trading is choosing the appropriate trading method for the current market cycle/condition. For example, a trend following method works well in a trending market, but performs poorly in a range/irregular market. Similarly, a method based on S/R levels work very well in range/irregular market and performs poorly in a vertically trending market. So basically, you need to have a set of tools (aka trading methods) in your toolbox, and choose the right tool for the right market condition. I usually start by identifying the market cycle/condition before choosing the right trading approach.

I am including the current EU chart as an example.
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  • #8,802
  • Oct 31, 2020 12:15pm Oct 31, 2020 12:15pm
GBPUSD, at this moment the bearish count is not super clear to me. I suspect it will accelerate lower if it remains below 1.3025-1.3050. I like to see a clear break of S @ 1.29 to confirm the downtrend continuation. That will give enough confidence to get aggressively bearish.
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  • #8,803
  • Oct 31, 2020 12:20pm Oct 31, 2020 12:20pm
NU look's good to me possible scenarios inside circles
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  • #8,804
  • Oct 31, 2020 6:06pm Oct 31, 2020 6:06pm
EUR/USD

hello thread member. specially to thread owner, shahab. Good morning..
before i go jogging and walking with my family i post my top and down view..
here is my chart analysis, taking buy or short decision i haven't any idea yet.. at least for this moment EU, bearish still so strong..

happy weekend all..
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  • #8,805
  • Edited 5:47am Nov 1, 2020 5:34am | Edited 5:47am
USDCHF, possible double bottom on weekly
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  • #8,806
  • Nov 1, 2020 7:50pm Nov 1, 2020 7:50pm
USDCAD, possible long setup
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  • #8,807
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:10am Nov 2, 2020 3:10am
NZDUSD on the list to add. Great zone if we can get up there.

Very similar setup on EU also. Yes that USDCAD above looks good too.
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  • #8,808
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:19am Nov 2, 2020 3:19am
Quoting Bacco
GBP-JPY Massive descending triangle in formation on weekly chart?? I will try to short on sunday evening. Maybe is gonna retest 124 area. {image}
Following that, i ve opened a short position on 135.264. stop 136.265
Dynamic target. Ideally around 132.00
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Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,809
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:33am Nov 2, 2020 3:33am
GBPUSD - 1.30 would be extra nice location to look for fresh sells, but I am doubtful this will have the legs to make it up there.

Will see how this week unfolds as likely to be a wild one, but that's the premium level atm.
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  • #8,810
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:41am Nov 2, 2020 3:41am
Quoting C-12
GBPUSD - 1.30 would be extra nice location to look for fresh sells, but I am doubtful this will have the legs to make it up there. Will see how this week unfolds as likely to be a wild one, but that's the premium level atm. {image}
very unlikely for my opinion. Its like a mine camp to get up there now. Too many resistances, i dont think gbp can make it to 3000. 2890-2930 probably is our chance
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,811
  • Nov 2, 2020 6:08am Nov 2, 2020 6:08am
GBPUSD, holding short, looking to add another short between 1.2950-1.2970
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  • #8,812
  • Nov 2, 2020 6:15am Nov 2, 2020 6:15am
USDCHF, possible long setup
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  • #8,813
  • Nov 2, 2020 6:24am Nov 2, 2020 6:24am
AUDUSD, rejection @ 0.70 provided good a good scalp/intraday long trade. C-12 had posted the setup before. Possible short setup @ 0.71. I am expecting this triangle to break to the downside eventually.
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  • #8,814
  • Nov 2, 2020 6:38am Nov 2, 2020 6:38am
AJ, Riding Retracement and Posibble Sell Setup..
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  • #8,815
  • Nov 2, 2020 6:59am Nov 2, 2020 6:59am
EU, possible touching @1.6 retrace 1.7 then posibble to breaking support or, maybe election effect will breaking support 1.6 with upward spike to 1.75 or 1.7 then drop..
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  • #8,816
  • Nov 2, 2020 7:02am Nov 2, 2020 7:02am
EURUSD - Here's the level/SD zone of interest. I can imagine some form of structure will form ahead of it to allow stops to build.
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  • #8,817
  • Nov 2, 2020 7:09am Nov 2, 2020 7:09am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, possible long setup {image}
USDCHF, also there is a possible short setup @ 0.92
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  • #8,818
  • Nov 2, 2020 7:26am Nov 2, 2020 7:26am
Gold - nice spot to go short.

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Markets will move to the right.
  • #8,819
  • Nov 2, 2020 7:31am Nov 2, 2020 7:31am
Quoting C-12
EURUSD - Here's the level/SD zone of interest. I can imagine some form of structure will form ahead of it to allow stops to build. {image}
the worst scenario for USDx could be happen C.. Atm price at supply zone, if drop and drop with huge momentum then breaking 92.. i mention my self, we are on downtrend mode for USDx on dayli basis time frame.
then we cry together.. lol..
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  • #8,820
  • Edited 8:32am Nov 2, 2020 8:12am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} the worst scenario for USDx could be happen C.. Atm price at supply zone, if drop and drop with huge momentum then breaking 92.. i mention my self, we are on downtrend mode for USDx on dayli basis time frame. then we cry together.. lol.. {image}
It's possible but I do see the W1/D1 charts have turned bull on DXY. I don't see any reason for a trend change here.

Pullbacks yes. There is a D1 supply approaching on DXY but it's not a significant solid zone. PA can always change though and just my read on it

Took a long USDCAD and a short on GBPUSD here. Gap close and 61.8 of last leg.
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