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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,781
  • Oct 30, 2020 10:50am Oct 30, 2020 10:50am
Quoting Alorente
We have the potential for a crash in the stock market today and next week. The chart and the fundamentals are pointing to a huge fall.
If we get the market crash, GU would probably hit 1.2300, EU 1.13 to 1,14, NU 0.59 to 0.60, etc.

The charts are whispering to me that the Nasdaq may drop to the 7,000 to 8,000 area in the next 4 to 6 weeks. After the crazy buying of the past 2 years, you have to be skeptical about this, but...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,782
  • Oct 30, 2020 10:56am Oct 30, 2020 10:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update, the vertical move indicating capitulation. Possible short setups at 1.17, 1.172, and 1.1740. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. The suggested short setup @ 1.17 worked very well.
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  • #8,783
  • Oct 30, 2020 10:59am Oct 30, 2020 10:59am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I did have quite a few small losers offset by quite a large number of big runners. Just closed EU This was 50% fib, RN and zone with trend. Textbook i think... and prematurely exited. {image} {image}
Well done! that's the thing when you let good trades run their course. You will be surprised how far they can go sometimes. That massively increases your RRR.
  • #8,784
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:01am Oct 30, 2020 11:01am
Quoting Bacco
Short idea on dax. Based on the recent lockdowns around europe i was thinking to short the dax index. November is gonna be tough i guess.. In europe is the one that has probably more room to go down as uk,spain,italy and france index recoverd only half or less of the loss back in march. I wont dare to short usa index now. Is it gonna go further down? who knows...historically the index always dropped around 50% during the crisis, but never twice in 1 year. So, i was loooking for an entry since wednesday, but i was waking up in the morning with already...
Little update.
Rsi in divergence, probably will bounce from here. I ll see how it reacts. I would like to entry at 11700. Lets see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,785
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:02am Oct 30, 2020 11:02am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well done! that's the thing when you let good trades run their course. You will be surprised how far they can go sometimes. That massively increases your RRR.
Yes your EU chart reminded me of my premature exits. It's the old scalper that needs working on.

Actually still holding onto UCHF. I think it's EU that was my old scalping pair, old habits die hard...
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  • #8,786
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:05am Oct 30, 2020 11:05am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} If we get the market crash, GU would probably hit 1.2300, EU 1.13 to 1,14, NU 0.59 to 0.60, etc. The charts are whispering to me that the Nasdaq may drop to the 7,000 to 8,000 area in the next 4 to 6 weeks. After the crazy buying of the past 2 years, you have to be skeptical about this, but...
I agree. I posted this chart a while back. I am sure you have seen it. Not many appreciate it, but this is history repeating itself.
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  • #8,787
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:06am Oct 30, 2020 11:06am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well done! that's the thing when you let good trades run their course. You will be surprised how far they can go sometimes. That massively increases your RRR.
Something that im not able yet to do. once i get to target, i ll close everything almost always (99% of the times).
i ve left massive pips on table yesterday and today....but in italy we have a saying ( hope it makes sense): if my grandmother would been born with wheels would have been a car.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,788
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:09am Oct 30, 2020 11:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. I posted this chart a while back. I am sure you have seen it. Not many appreciate it, but this is history repeating itself. {image} {image}
Yes... The good old days. I was trading that market heavily.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,789
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:09am Oct 30, 2020 11:09am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Little update. Rsi in divergence, probably will bounce from here. I ll see how it reacts. I would like to entry at 11700. Lets see {image}
DAX H&Sh pattern is ahead of SPX. I prefer selling the bounces on SPX at this point. As it is likely to break that double top neckline sometimes next week.
  • #8,790
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:17am Oct 30, 2020 11:17am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} DAX H&Sh pattern is ahead of SPX. I prefer selling the bounces on SPX at this point. As it is likely to break that double top neckline sometimes next week.
Right, technically is probably better,as is bouncing on 23fibo too...so its a bit higher than dax... but im not sure about the election, what might happen to the usa stocks. In europe the situation is pretty bad and is worsening, i was going for dax only for a worse fundamental honestly...
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,791
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:39am Oct 30, 2020 11:39am
Quoting C-12
{quote} My advice would be to open a new thread and continue as you are. You could then use something like Discord app to invite active members (contributors). Very easy to manage and use. Especially for posting quick charts, phone app etc. So you know the people involved are actively looking for and posting similar levels and setups not there for signals. You would keep the thread going to attract new people interested in learning and participating. Just an idea.
Guys, let me first thank @shahab8b for this great thread, it really open a lot of possibilities and idea, I dont blindly take the post here as 'signal' because I have my own plan : focusing on GJ for couple month and developing my own system which is made like yours of many different elements. But for the first book I read (Adam H Grimes - The Art & Science of Technical Analysis) and always get back to it, I learned things that really resonate with the way trades idea, market analysis are presented here.

So I read every post here, and not fooled by the apparent beautiful simplicity of the chart, but I dont post cause well I have nothing to say that you look like you dont know already lol... just my two cents that there is people here maybe silent but that are learning to fish and not there for signals. (I hope they are the majority but it can be doubted, that's for sure)

Again, thank you for sharing obviously years of market experience to the community with such a genuine attitude . Peace to all.
  • #8,792
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:49am Oct 30, 2020 11:49am
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} Guys, let me first thank @shahab8b for this great thread, it really open a lot of possibilities and idea, I dont blindly take the post here as 'signal' because I have my own plan : focusing on GJ for couple month and developing my own system which is made like yours of many different elements. But for the first book I read (Adam H Grimes - The Art & Science of Technical Analysis) and always get back to it, I learned things that really resonate with the way trades idea, market analysis are presented here. So I read every post here, and not...
Very good post, I realised after that it's not my place to suggest otherwise. Of course there are people silently taking notes and working hard in the background.

If it ain't broke there's nothing to fix. If shahab8b does decide to open a new thread, I will be the first to hit the subscribe button.
  • #8,793
  • Oct 30, 2020 11:55am Oct 30, 2020 11:55am
Quoting C-12
{quote} If shahab8b does decide to open a new thread, I will be the first to hit the subscribe button.
I will be second, I salute you
  • #8,794
  • Oct 30, 2020 12:02pm Oct 30, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I know that the title of thread is misleading. I know that from the number of pm I received asking about the COT data. I may consider opening a new thread with a more appropriate title under the interactive trading. A thread where similar minded traders can share their trade ideas and thoughts and grow as a community.
Because of tittle i have ignored the thread so many times, but 1 day when i decided to read it up-side down i have found the diamond inside
  • #8,795
  • Oct 30, 2020 12:04pm Oct 30, 2020 12:04pm
Exits on UCHF, seems a good place to take out and most likely will head higher next week.

This was an example of D1 demand zone and H1 demand entries (with fib assistance and confluence).
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Attached Image
  • #8,796
  • Oct 30, 2020 2:01pm Oct 30, 2020 2:01pm
UJ on my radar..
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  • #8,797
  • Oct 30, 2020 2:46pm Oct 30, 2020 2:46pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} Guys, let me first thank @shahab8b for this great thread, it really open a lot of possibilities and idea, I dont blindly take the post here as 'signal' because I have my own plan : focusing on GJ for couple month and developing my own system which is made like yours of many different elements. But for the first book I read (Adam H Grimes - The Art & Science of Technical Analysis) and always get back to it, I learned things that really resonate with the way trades idea, market analysis are presented here. So I read every post here, and not...
Thank you for your nice words Tragruel. I am happy to hear you find this thread useful. Also it is nice to hear that you are working on your own trading system. As we are not all the same. And we need to find a trading approach that fits our skill set, personality traits, and our expectations.
  • #8,798
  • Oct 31, 2020 4:28am Oct 31, 2020 4:28am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Very good post, I realised after that it's not my place to suggest otherwise. Of course there are people silently taking notes and working hard in the background. If it ain't broke there's nothing to fix. If shahab8b does decide to open a new thread, I will be the first to hit the subscribe button.
count me in, as active member and ticket seller sure as bodyguard too.. lol..
  • #8,799
  • Oct 31, 2020 5:09am Oct 31, 2020 5:09am
GBP-JPY

Massive descending triangle in formation on weekly chart??

I will try to short on sunday evening. Maybe is gonna retest 124 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inkedchart (32)_LI.jpg Size: 561 KB
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,800
  • Oct 31, 2020 6:15am Oct 31, 2020 6:15am
Quoting Bacco
GBP-JPY Massive descending triangle in formation on weekly chart?? I will try to short on sunday evening. Maybe is gonna retest 124 area. {image}
asset mgr and leverage fund total positions below.

Looks like they are getting rid of some short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Immagine1.png Size: 1.1 MB
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
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