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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,561
  • Oct 28, 2020 4:23pm Oct 28, 2020 4:23pm
Quoting ficibald
{quote} I mean if someone start something many years ago, do hard work and got no succes it is normal if they quit. I mean nothing offensive

yeah lots of hard work. but i don't see "failure" as a problem... I mean failure is just in our mind. we survive and learn lol
  • #1,562
  • Oct 28, 2020 4:27pm Oct 28, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} yeah lots of hard work. but i don't see "failure" as a problem... I mean failure is just in our mind. we survive and learn lol
You work hard at ignoring traders that don't agree with you ... no problem
  • #1,563
  • Oct 28, 2020 8:09pm Oct 28, 2020 8:09pm
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?
Yes.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...o-trade-simple

Here is an example:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,564
  • Oct 29, 2020 4:48am Oct 29, 2020 4:48am
Quoting smilee89
has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system? Yes. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...o-trade-simple Here is an example: {image}
A backtest report has absolutely nothing to do with the profitibality of a system.. show a myfxbook or other link to live results instead.
  • #1,565
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:29am Oct 29, 2020 6:29am
Quoting mtruefx
{quote} A backtest report has absolutely nothing to do with the profitibality of a system.. show a myfxbook or other link to live results instead.
This is not true! The backtest gives you is the best indication if a system is good or not because you can simulate any possible scenario.
You can simulate market conditions never seen in history. You can simulate anything. Gaps, spread spikes, slippage, server connection failures, news events basically anything you can think of.
The important thing with backtesting is to use only good quality tick data for the final evaluation.
  • #1,566
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:58am Oct 29, 2020 6:58am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} This is not true! The backtest gives you is the best indication if a system is good or not because you can simulate any possible scenario. You can simulate market conditions never seen in history. You can simulate anything. Gaps, spread spikes, slippage, server connection failures, news events basically anything you can think of. The important thing with backtesting is to use only good quality tick data for the final evaluation.
I can show you 100's of backtest that are not performing in real life, especially crapy ea's
  • #1,567
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:13am Oct 29, 2020 7:13am
Quoting mtruefx
{quote} I can show you 100's of backtest that are not performing in real life, especially crapy ea's
This is because most of the strategies are not good. In many "profitable" strategies the expectancy per trade is too small and they are too sensitive to slippage.
When you backtest a strategy make sure that you set the conditions much worse then real live. Increase the spread by 300% and add slippage/delay of executions. Make tests in sample and out of sample. Test different pairs. If the strategy still makes you profit then its probably a good strategy.
Also as I told you, It depends on how your make the backtest! You have to use real tick data! Not M1 bars like most people do.
  • #1,568
  • Oct 29, 2020 3:04pm Oct 29, 2020 3:04pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} This is because most of the strategies are not good. In many "profitable" strategies the expectancy per trade is too small and they are too sensitive to slippage. When you backtest a strategy make sure that you set the conditions much worse then real live. Increase the spread by 300% and add slippage/delay of executions. Make tests in sample and out of sample. Test different pairs. If the strategy still makes you profit then its probably a good strategy. Also as I told you, It depends on how your make the backtest! You have to use real tick...
I actually conduct strategy testing using my live account with trade size of 0.01 lot so no matter what happens it won't kill my account.
This is way better than trying to test a strategy using a demo account with big trade size.
  • #1,569
  • Oct 29, 2020 4:33pm Oct 29, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} This is not true! The backtest gives you is the best indication if a system is good or not because you can simulate any possible scenario. You can simulate market conditions never seen in history. You can simulate anything. Gaps, spread spikes, slippage, server connection failures, news events basically anything you can think of. The important thing with backtesting is to use only good quality tick data for the final evaluation.
James

mtruefx is correct as backtests don’t show the true profitability of a system. The fact you said you need to use tick data to get profitable results shows you have never tested not the strategy but you haven’t tested the tester. It is faulty for two reasons.
It is designed to give false profit and drawdown results and tests on data that is different from live data.
Its a big waste of time.
If you want a good tester, you have to build your own platform tester by importing data onto a excel sheet and create your own formulas.
My hint is only import data from Ctrader, never MT4.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,570
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:14pm Oct 29, 2020 5:14pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} This is not true! The backtest gives you is the best indication if a system is good or not because you can simulate any possible scenario. You can simulate market conditions never seen in history. You can simulate anything. Gaps, spread spikes, slippage, server connection failures, news events basically anything you can think of. The important thing with backtesting is to use only good quality tick data for the final evaluation.
Once you truly understand the market and its behavior, you will know that it cannot be backtested.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,571
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:21pm Oct 29, 2020 6:21pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Once you truly understand the market and its behavior, you will know that it cannot be backtested.
Hi MrBullBear

You can backtest the market and obtain good profitability if you are prepared to do a lot of work. Understanding the market and making money is the same thing. Most of my manual trading is based on historical data and there is a few here on Forex Factory to see me trade in a live trading room and know what I can achieve. I can backup my statements as well.

Also some of the best traders I know are not members here or rarely post on Forex Factory. If are ever lucky enough to work with one of my trading buddies called Sharks who build his own backtesting platform from scratch, you would see it’s possible to run strategy’s from previous information and run a host of profitable Algo strategies.
However you need to allow 1000’s of work hours to learn the this art of data trading.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,572
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:28pm Oct 29, 2020 6:28pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi MrBullBear You can backtest the market and obtain good profitability if you are prepared to do a lot of work. Understanding the market and making money is the same thing. Most of my manual trading is based on historical data and there is a few here on Forex Factory to see me trade in a live trading room and know what I can achieve. I can backup my statements as well. Also some of the best traders I know are not members here or rarely post on Forex Factory. If are ever lucky enough to work with one of my trading buddies called Sharks who...
I can already tell the result, it will be different everytime. Cheers!
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,573
  • Edited 7:21pm Oct 29, 2020 6:45pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} James mtruefx is correct as backtests don’t show the true profitability of a system. The fact you said you need to use tick data to get profitable results shows you have never tested not the strategy but you haven’t tested the tester. It is faulty for two reasons. It is designed to give false profit and drawdown results and tests on data that is different from live data. Its a big waste of time. If you want a good tester, you have to build your own platform tester by importing data onto a excel sheet and create your own formulas. My hint...
From my experience the tester in MT5 works quite well with high quality tick data from external source. You can make multiple tests with data from different sources for additional confirmations. You can also do the same stuff with the MT4 but you have to install additional software called Tick Data Suite.
Anyway,
I already made many tests with the EA's that I coded by comparing the backtest results with the live result from the same EA.
The correlation is over 99%. The results are basically the same.

Of course if we start to trade with very large volume we may get more slippage and the difference between backtest and live will be larger.
This is why I said that we have to test the EA's on worse conditions to make sure they are really robust. For this we have to modify the tick data to increase the average spread at levels beyond normal.
If the EA passes again on the bad conditions then it's really good and most likely it will make money on live account even with slippage.

BTW I don't like the ctrader platform. It feels like a toy and it's too heavy. MT5 is much more professional. And the language is powerful. Its a modified C++ code so I can do anything I want with it.
  • #1,574
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:35pm Oct 29, 2020 8:35pm
[quote=MrBullBear;13237150]{quote} I can already tell the result, it will be different everytime. Cheers![/quote

Only if you trade the markets using price and time, then the results will indeed be different every time.
What if you traded by other parameters that exist within the physics of liquidity.
Here we have laws that basically remain unchanged year after year and they are tradeable.

If an apple falls out of a tree, we have no idea how far it will fall but we can bet on its speed when it hits the ground with great accuracy.
Thats a trade with great accuracy.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,575
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:12pm Oct 29, 2020 9:12pm
Quoting RickM
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} I can already tell the result, it will be different everytime. Cheers![/quote Only if you trade the markets using price and time, then the results will indeed be different every time. What if you traded by other parameters that exist within the physics of liquidity. Here we have laws that basically remain unchanged year after year and they are tradeable. If an apple falls out of a tree, we have no idea how far it will fall but we can bet on its speed when it hits the ground with great accuracy. Thats a trade with
...
You said it yourself, we trade the market using price and time... but let me add, everything else after that don't matter. Trading Forex is not rocket science, it is purely commonsense. Cheers!
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,576
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:38pm Oct 29, 2020 9:38pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote}{quote} You said it yourself, we trade the market using price and time... but let me add, everything else after that don't matter. Trading Forex is not rocket science, it is purely commonsense. Cheers!
We both agree on one thing, forex trading is actually quite easy.
But disagree that other matters don’t matter and perhaps far more profitable.
I think we just look at the market with a different vision, as long as we are both making money I think that is all that matters.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,577
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:39pm Oct 29, 2020 9:39pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} We both agree on one thing, forex trading is actually quite easy. But disagree that other matters do matter and perhaps far more profitable. I think we just look at the market with a different vision, as long as we are both making money I think that is all that matters.
Cheers to that!
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,578
  • Edited 12:53am Oct 30, 2020 12:17am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} From my experience the tester in MT5 works quite well with high quality tick data from external source. You can make multiple tests with data from different sources for additional confirmations. You can also do the same stuff with the MT4 but you have to install additional software called Tick Data Suite. Anyway, I already made many tests with the EA's that I coded by comparing the backtest results with the live result from the same EA. The correlation is over 99%. The results are basically the same. Of course if we start to trade with very...
Use forwardtesting in mt5 strategy tester. Optimize for example 2010 - 2017 then forwardtest 2017-now and will see how EA works with unknown future.
  • #1,579
  • Oct 30, 2020 12:31am Oct 30, 2020 12:31am
Quoting RickM
{quote} We both agree on one thing, forex trading is actually quite easy. But disagree that other matters don’t matter and perhaps far more profitable. I think we just look at the market with a different vision, as long as we are both making money I think that is all that matters.
You should be millionere if trading so easy as you say.
  • #1,580
  • Oct 30, 2020 1:09am Oct 30, 2020 1:09am
FX trading is just too risky, time consuming... GIVE UP lol
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