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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,481
  • Oct 25, 2020 5:25am Oct 25, 2020 5:25am
Quoting RickM
{quote} I would say NO, it is very hard to beat the system using technical data to make a wage. I would say YES, it is very easy to beat the system and make a wage if you trade the inbalance of the order book. I do it every week. You asked where the order book is within this decentralized forex market is - perhaps you are too blind to see it or haven't bothered to study historical data. THE ANSWER IS IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES If you use Algo's, you would need a whole entire portfolio of EA's to make a wage - but this is sixteen times harder than manual...
What you are saying here does not make sense.

First you say that we can't beat the market using technical data.
You also say that the answer is in the technical data.
And then you turn again and make the assumption that EA's are not superior to the human brain when it comes to working with technical data.
This is crazy!

You also did not answer my main question - where is the order book? There is no order book. There is only charts. You look at charts.
The charts are technical data. The charts are static databases. The order book (if there was such a thing) is also technical data.
If there is such thing as "inbalance" and the thing is visible on the charts - then I assure you that it's possible to automate it.

You ask me: "have you ever tried being a Algo developer?"
Yes, I tried it in the 1980's.
  • #1,482
  • Oct 25, 2020 6:06am Oct 25, 2020 6:06am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} What you are saying here does not make sense. First you say that we can't beat the market using technical data. You also say that the answer is in the technical data. And then you turn again and make the assumption that EA's are not superior to the human brain when it comes to working with technical data. This is crazy! You also did not answer my main question - where is the order book? There is no order book. There is only charts. You look at charts. The charts are technical data. The charts are static databases. The order book (if there...
No, you need to do some work for a change instead of asking every trader for the answers you don't have. The order book or the flow of passive and aggressive orders (Buy & Sell bids) are available if you merge several tools together and then match it with historical data. Look harder.

I have work alongside professional Algo developers from a prop firm in Australia, I understand the methods required to obtain profitable EA's. You seem to forget these wonderful Algo's are actually designed by the human brain. The human brain has to code them, they are actually dumb and stupid.
I have met many EA builders that think they can automate any strategy no matter how complex that strategy is. The fact is the current coding systems used to build modern EA's can not handle the execution of thousands of lines of code. They freeze regularly which is why most developers just stopped building complex models.
No money in complexity.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,483
  • Oct 25, 2020 6:41am Oct 25, 2020 6:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} No, you need to do some work for a change instead of asking every trader for the answers you don't have. The order book or the flow of passive and aggressive orders (Buy & Sell bids) are available if you merge several tools together and then match it with historical data. Look harder. I have work alongside professional Algo developers from a prop firm in Australia, I understand the methods required to obtain profitable EA's. You seem to forget these wonderful Algo's are actually designed by the human brain. The human brain has to code them,...
The developers that you know are amateurs! They have no idea what they are doing if they can't make their algos to run smoothly without freezing.

You are talking about "thousands of lines of code". This is funny. This is nothing by modern standards. It's nothing even by the standards of the 1980's.

For example, do you have any idea how many lines of code there are in any of the modern computer games? All these 3D super realistic action games? We are talking about MILLIONS of lines of code. 10's of millions. And these games run very smoothly! This is because they are coded very well by people who know their stuff. And what about other things like operating systems, applications and so on?

Here you can see what I'm talking about. It gives you some perspective where we are:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1276_lines_of_code_sep2015_fb.png Size: 137 KB
  • #1,484
  • Oct 25, 2020 7:27am Oct 25, 2020 7:27am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} The developers that you know are amateurs! They have no idea what they are doing if they can't make their algos to run smoothly without freezing. You are talking about "thousands of lines of code". This is funny. This is nothing by modern standards. It's nothing even by the standards of the 1980's. For example, do you have any idea how many lines of code there are in any of the modern computer games? All these 3D super realistic action games? We are talking about MILLIONS of lines of code. 10's of millions. And these games run...
Have you really build a EA for trading?

A EA that has millions of lines of code that runs on a standard trading platform?.
Do you even know what the average size of an Algo is that's used for trading the markets by prop firms.

Somehow I doubt it.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,485
  • Oct 25, 2020 8:00am Oct 25, 2020 8:00am
i can imagine that there are huge performance algorithms that infer the final development based on the little data available.
such are used by physicists to study the origin of the universe.
  • #1,486
  • Oct 25, 2020 8:14am Oct 25, 2020 8:14am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Have you really build a EA for trading? A EA that has millions of lines of code that runs on a standard trading platform?. Do you even know what the average size of an Algo is that's used for trading the markets by prop firms. Somehow I doubt it.
EA's that you see here are like toys for the kids. They are super simple.
I can build very complicated things with C++. So EA's are not a problem for me. I tried the popular MQL language a few weeks back and it's basically the same as C++ with some changes and additional features. I learn it in 3 days and already coded many EA's.
The MT platform itself is a bit limited in the way it uses RT processing power but for now it will do the job just fine.
If I need more power in the future I can code external application with connection to MT terminal. I can run all of the heavy calculations externally using cloud computing. In this scenario the terminal is used only to get prices, and to place the trades. This way I can get almost unlimited processing power.
  • #1,487
  • Oct 25, 2020 8:26am Oct 25, 2020 8:26am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} EA's that you see here are like toys for the kids. They are super simple. I can build very complicated things with C++. So EA's are not a problem for me. I tried the popular MQL language a few weeks back and it's basically the same as C++ with some changes and additional features. I learn it in 3 days and already coded many EA's. The MT platform itself is a bit limited in the way it uses RT processing power but for now it will do the job just fine. If I need more power in the future I can code external application with connection to MT terminal....
OK.
I can already see that you are a professional in coding.
but, now comes the hardest question.
what will be your strategy?
  • #1,488
  • Oct 25, 2020 8:53am Oct 25, 2020 8:53am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} The developers that you know are amateurs! They have no idea what they are doing if they can't make their algos to run smoothly without freezing. You are talking about "thousands of lines of code". This is funny. This is nothing by modern standards. It's nothing even by the standards of the 1980's. For example, do you have any idea how many lines of code there are in any of the modern computer games? All these 3D super realistic action games? We are talking about MILLIONS of lines of code. 10's of millions. And these games run...
send me a pm james
  • #1,489
  • Oct 25, 2020 9:11am Oct 25, 2020 9:11am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} .......what will be your strategy?
My initial idea was to use forums and other social networks in order to find successful traders. My plan was to steal their strategies and ideas and to automate them.

But it looks like this is not going to work. All strategies and ideas that I got so far are useless. Also the progress is way too slow.
I have to speed it up at least x100 if I want to get anywhere close to success within reasonable time frame.

The new plan is to build AI. Instead of looking for traders and strategies manually, I will build a robot to look for patterns, to analyze them statistically, to learn the market for me and in the end to generate the source codes for all potential strategies. Then I will do only the final review to decide which strategies or combinations of strategies are really viable.

At first sight this plan seems impossible, but I already have at least 80% of the necessary code for such AI from other projects. As I said the scrapyard is a wonderful thing.
  • #1,490
  • Oct 25, 2020 9:16am Oct 25, 2020 9:16am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} My initial idea was to use forums and other social networks in order to find successful traders. My plan was to steal their strategies and ideas and to automate them. But it looks like this is not going to work. All strategies and ideas that I got so far are useless. Also the progress is way too slow. I have to speed it up at least x100 if I want to get anywhere close to success withing reasonable time frame. The new plan is to build AI. Instead of looking for traders and strategies manually, I will build a robot to look for patterns,...
ive got something for you
  • #1,491
  • Oct 25, 2020 9:30am Oct 25, 2020 9:30am
Dude why would succesful traders hang out on forums like these? They wouldn't have the time for that since they are quite busy doing what they are successful at: trading.

Don't think that they have any obligation to 'students' here on FF.


Quoting josephcom
Update 13 Oct 2019: Please, after reading this post (the first post) take a look at this post too (click on the link) to better understand what I mean. Thank you... OK, it's time for me to ask the big question! For over 3 years, I've been trying to find a long-term successful strategy in Forex, but in vain! When I say 3 years I am talking about something like 5 to 10 hours a day!!! In a way, I've wasted 3 years of my dear life. I am one of the best computer programmers...
  • #1,492
  • Oct 25, 2020 9:36am Oct 25, 2020 9:36am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Dude why would succesful traders hang out on forums like these? They wouldn't have the time for that since they are quite busy doing what they are successful at: trading. Don't think that they have any obligation to 'students' here on FF. {quote}
its there playground
  • #1,493
  • Oct 25, 2020 10:00am Oct 25, 2020 10:00am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Dude why would succesful traders hang out on forums like these? They wouldn't have the time for that since they are quite busy doing what they are successful at: trading.
Maybe attract subscribers to their signals...
  • #1,494
  • Oct 25, 2020 10:07am Oct 25, 2020 10:07am
Quoting devontrader
{quote} its there playground
I think real traders have lives and families they want to spend time with after a day if some real trading.
  • #1,495
  • Edited 11:08am Oct 25, 2020 10:10am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Maybe attract subscribers to their signals...
Real successful traders make enough money with trading, why would they bother selling signals? If they really want to even make more money they just double the lot size instead of all the hassle maintaining a signal service.
  • #1,496
  • Oct 25, 2020 10:59am Oct 25, 2020 10:59am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} My initial idea was to use forums and other social networks in order to find successful traders. My plan was to steal their strategies and ideas and to automate them. But it looks like this is not going to work. All strategies and ideas that I got so far are useless. Also the progress is way too slow. I have to speed it up at least x100 if I want to get anywhere close to success within reasonable time frame. The new plan is to build AI. Instead of looking for traders and strategies manually, I will build a robot to look for patterns,...
Here's the thing. I have been around robots for many years. You cannot expect a robot that takes counter trend trades in ranging periods to perform well in trendy periods. Vice versa, you cannot expect a trendy robot to perform well in rangy periods. The hard part is that you will never know when a range becomes a range until it is a range many candles later and vice versa when it is a trend. Can you code this into an Ea?, absolutely No. An Ea will never see what the eyes can see and even the eyes see it too late. And even if you use the best technology out there to detect patterns. It will always be many candles later. You will never learn from rangy traders or vice versa from trend traders, range traders are contrarian traders and totally contradictory to trend traders. Strike a balance between both and you could be on the correct path.
Let me give you a little secret. Set your ea to breakeven as soon as possible and let price do its thing. Try this and you may experience the best of both worlds,
Cheers
Trade to trade another day
  • #1,497
  • Oct 25, 2020 11:06am Oct 25, 2020 11:06am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Real successful traders make enough money with trading why would they bother selling signals? If they really want to even make more money they just double the lot size instead of all the hassle maintaining a signal service.
Fantasies about "real successful traders"...
  • #1,498
  • Oct 25, 2020 11:11am Oct 25, 2020 11:11am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Fantasies about "real successful traders"...
What about them
  • #1,499
  • Oct 25, 2020 11:48am Oct 25, 2020 11:48am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Real successful traders make enough money with trading, why would they bother selling signals? If they really want to even make more money they just double the lot size instead of all the hassle maintaining a signal service.
Very well said, unless they are the ones trading and someone else is the one collecting those subscriptions. It is a huge joke that some people masquerade themselves as "professional traders" and try to scam people into buying $20 signals services.
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #1,500
  • Oct 25, 2020 11:51am Oct 25, 2020 11:51am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} What about them
you imagine "real successful trader" and speak as you know any of them in person and know all motives that drive them (all of them... really?). you never know real persons behind nicks here in an anonymous forum.
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