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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,461
  • Oct 23, 2020 5:25am Oct 23, 2020 5:25am
In theory you can make a strategy to win even in random market because there are many different types of randomness.
Some types of randomness are beatable because they have limitations or predictable boundaries.
The main problem is consistency. If the type of randomness is not consistent over time then the mission is impossible.
What do you do when today you have one type of randomness, and tomorrow a different type? You can have correct strategy for each type but without information when to use it is still useless.
  • #1,462
  • Oct 23, 2020 6:34am Oct 23, 2020 6:34am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
In theory you can make a strategy to win even in random market because there are many different types of randomness. Some types of randomness are beatable because they have limitations or predictable boundaries. The main problem is consistency. If the type of randomness is not consistent over time then the mission is impossible. What do you do when today you have one type of randomness, and tomorrow a different type? You can have correct strategy for each type but without information when to use it is still useless.
Make packages of n EAs with various strategies, symbols and rr ratios. Each setup individually optimized and have data how entire package of EAs behave 10 years history. That way you compensate fluctuations when some EA can't work for some time anymore. You never know which EA when work or fail. But you rely on whole system of EAs. Some win some loose some break even. Winners covers loosers.
  • #1,463
  • Oct 23, 2020 7:01am Oct 23, 2020 7:01am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} No proof needed? Really? Ok, 5% of the moves are tradable. How do you find these moves without proof? How exactly you know which moves belong to the 5% and which to the 95%? Look, without proof you are telling me that gambling on uncertain events is the way to go? No wonder everyone is losing like crazy. No proof = no win! You don't have to be an expert to see it. It's common sense. According to science technical analysis is BS and the market is random. However, this it yet another opinion, and again I don't see the proof! WHERE...
You ask for proof - yet its in front of your eyes and you just haven't seen the reason why so many traders lose.
I believe you have fallen for the biggest liar in our game so I will let you in a little secret.

There is very little Liquidity in any forex market at any one time.

All this talk about a Trillion dollar market is just bullshit. Its just a handful of big players creating fake pools of liquidity that are actually quite shallow - then they work on cleaning out traders like James Smith.
The proof is there at the boundary of thin liquidity, PA that is tradable offering nice profitability is totally depended on having EVEN DENSITY OF ORDERS
If the orders are aggressive but even in nature, you have your 5% edge
If the orders are passive to zero in nature, you have another 5% edge. This is my edge I trade with within the live trading group.

So Randomness is just the big players manipulating order density to entice gullible traders to enter the markets at the wrong time.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,464
  • Oct 23, 2020 7:57am Oct 23, 2020 7:57am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You ask for proof - yet its in front of your eyes and you just haven't seen the reason why so many traders lose. I believe you have fallen for the biggest liar in our game so I will let you in a little secret. There is very little Liquidity in any forex market at any one time. All this talk about a Trillion dollar market is just bullshit. Its just a handful of big players creating fake pools of liquidity that are actually quite shallow - then they work on cleaning out traders like James Smith. The proof is there at the boundary of thin liquidity,...
Ok. The liquidity game on it's own makes sense. Sort of. But as far as we know this market is decentralized and nobody knows the real depth at any given time. There are so many platforms, so many exchanges, so many dealers and market makers.... How can anyone manipulate all of this? On one platform the liquidity can be very thin but on other platform there may be large orders. I don't see how can you manipulate the whole market when you have independent trading venues and traders from all over the world. There is no way.

Unless.....

Unless the whole thing, the whole market is a one giant centrally controlled scam. All these exchanges and platforms...maybe all of it is fake. Maybe the market is completely virtual and exist only for the purpose to take money from the traders and from businesses. After all, Let's not forget that these floating exchange rates are relatively new thing. Before 1970 the world economy was based on the gold standard.

Imagine that.
  • #1,465
  • Oct 23, 2020 9:26pm Oct 23, 2020 9:26pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Ok. The liquidity game on it's own makes sense. Sort of. But as far as we know this market is decentralized and nobody knows the real depth at any given time. There are so many platforms, so many exchanges, so many dealers and market makers.... How can anyone manipulate all of this? On one platform the liquidity can be very thin but on other platform there may be large orders. I don't see how can you manipulate the whole market when you have independent trading venues and traders from all over the world. There is no way. Unless..... Unless...
If you are asking me whether anything is fake or a scam - only the notion that the Forex markets really has Deep liquidity and lets add the other story about big players along with your broker purposely running your stops.
Those are all scams.

The market is an Auction, a place where aggressive market orders consume passive limit orders resulting in positive or negative pressure on price.
But as most traders are sitting on their bum waiting for an opportunity to enter the market, a surprisely small amount of useful liquidity is available to trade with at any one time.

That knowledge offers a very powerful edge if you know what to do - as I put through 370.4 full lots last week, I may just be doing alright.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,466
  • Oct 24, 2020 4:27am Oct 24, 2020 4:27am
lol.
if we knew the exact quantitative and qualitative distribution of orders, our heads would no longer hurt.
  • #1,467
  • Oct 24, 2020 11:36am Oct 24, 2020 11:36am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Make packages of n EAs with various strategies, symbols and rr ratios. Each setup individually optimized and have data how entire package of EAs behave 10 years history. That way you compensate fluctuations when some EA can't work for some time anymore. You never know which EA when work or fail. But you rely on whole system of EAs. Some win some loose some break even. Winners covers loosers.

Totally agree! My work is statistics as a significant part of it, so I am a fan of stat, average, and prediction with probability. Just my thoughts on this...

1. I dont think FX market is not random as it is controlled by trading activities. Just that there are too many parameters in play and in control of so many big players moving the prices around. Some can predict some dont, like you never know when exactly a bank is buying a currency, but once it happens, some prediction can be made in short term. The “randomness” is simply because of insufficient information

2. Having a basket of strategies and currency pairs is probably the next best thing than an AI. At any time, a winning strategy can cover losing one, and keep the DD lower (and more consistent though lower gain). Constant evaluation and add/drop of strategies can reduce DD.

3. Neural “self-optimization” is not the actual application of AI in trading to what I have read and watched. It is a curve fitting based on existing parameters in a strategy. Currently the AI in the institutions are for “finding undiscovered correlation between a new parameter with an existing strategy”, in simple word adding/deleting indicators or rules. A standard workflow is an expert trader feed the AI his strategy, the AI analyzes it with historical data and modify it, and passes back to the humans to review/execute/accept(if HFT)
  • #1,468
  • Edited 4:25pm Oct 24, 2020 4:13pm | Edited 4:25pm
There is too much logical confusion here.

But let's try to define the situation and to add some clarity.
I think this is the only way to come up with something clever.
To solve a problem, first you have to define the problem as accurately as possible.

Many people claim they can beat the market using only technical analysis. What this means is that their strategies are based entirely on some numerical inputs from charts. (data sequences in the form of time series and derivatives in the form of indicators) They analyze these inputs and make decisions by comparing the present technical context with historical versions stored in their memory. They rely on biological neural networks to perform background calculation in order to come up with statistical forecast regarding the near future. This sort of analysis is continuous and there is a switch between 3 distinct stages.
And here comes the problem - These same people claim that their strategies can't be automated. They will give you all sorts of reasons but none of them are logically valid.

Here is what we have in reality:

Static database containing all history up to the present moment.
Continuous tick by tick updates of the static database.
Observation, adding of inputs and regular feeding of the biological neural network with recent information from the static database.
The entire activity is continuous in the form of cycle with 3 stage switch.

Stage 1 - Pre trade contex analysis.
Stage 2 - During trade contex analysis.
Stage 3 - Post trade contex analysis.

We can definitely automate this process!
There are available solutions from other industries specifically made to tackle problems like this.
We can build the necessary machine by using old parts from dead algorithms, from forgotten search engines, from sleeping neural networks, from the gaming industry, from chat bots, and many many other.

And where can we find so many free parts you may ask?? Ha! Simple. In the source code scrapyard! I have been looking at some old source codes from way back from 1990's for a few weeks and I tell you, It's unbelievable what your can find there! You may think that we are advanced now in 2020 but you are wrong. You have no idea! The guys from the 1990's are smarter then you think. We often forget that they invented all of the tech we use today. WE play in THEIR GAME!
“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
  • #1,469
  • Oct 24, 2020 5:23pm Oct 24, 2020 5:23pm
Quoting Lunartrader9
Learn how to read Supply and Demand zones. Where the banks and institutions are unloading their inventory. {image}
there is no supply or demand or even support or resistance,,,,its just simply liquidity,,,where traders orders are resting.

the market is manipulated by the banks etc and they target you orders to pair up with theres

if they want shorts they will go for the orders that put traders long,,,eg stops and pending orders from breakout traders

its all about liquidity
  • #1,470
  • Oct 24, 2020 5:26pm Oct 24, 2020 5:26pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you are asking me whether anything is fake or a scam - only the notion that the Forex markets really has Deep liquidity and lets add the other story about big players along with your broker purposely running your stops. Those are all scams. The market is an Auction, a place where aggressive market orders consume passive limit orders resulting in positive or negative pressure on price. But as most traders are sitting on their bum waiting for an opportunity to enter the market, a surprisely small amount of useful liquidity is available...
brokers only run your stops if your with in a few pips and they do it by widening the spread.
they are abliged to take your order and provide the liquidity via the central bank

it is the large banks and institions that control the market via manipulation,,,,with price set by the central banks
its the central banks algo that sets price
a scam ,,,yes if your a retail trader,,,,,so trade the same way as the banks,,,,trade institional not retail
  • #1,471
  • Oct 24, 2020 5:28pm Oct 24, 2020 5:28pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} You ask for proof - yet its in front of your eyes and you just haven't seen the reason why so many traders lose. I believe you have fallen for the biggest liar in our game so I will let you in a little secret. There is very little Liquidity in any forex market at any one time. All this talk about a Trillion dollar market is just bullshit. Its just a handful of big players creating fake pools of liquidity that are actually quite shallow - then they work on cleaning out traders like James Smith. The proof is there at the boundary of thin liquidity,...
"There is very little Liquidity in any forex market at any one time"-----REALLY??

so what is pending orders and market orders and stop losses???

people trading there money on the markets as in trades,,,,,is liquidity,,,,5trill a day in forex
  • #1,472
  • Oct 24, 2020 5:31pm Oct 24, 2020 5:31pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Ok. The liquidity game on it's own makes sense. Sort of. But as far as we know this market is decentralized and nobody knows the real depth at any given time. There are so many platforms, so many exchanges, so many dealers and market makers.... How can anyone manipulate all of this? On one platform the liquidity can be very thin but on other platform there may be large orders. I don't see how can you manipulate the whole market when you have independent trading venues and traders from all over the world. There is no way. Unless..... Unless...
"The liquidity game on it's own makes sense. Sort of. But as far as we know this market is decentralized and nobody knows the real depth at any given time. There are so many platforms, so many exchanges, so many dealers and market makers.... How can anyone manipulate all of this? On one platform the liquidity can be very thin but on other platform there may be large orders. I don't see how can you manipulate the whole market when you have independent trading venues and traders from all over the world."

its all controlled by the central banks via an algo,,,,price is given by the central banks and fed down the chain hence the broker quotes you and plays with the spread to take you out
  • #1,473
  • Edited Oct 25, 2020 6:53am Oct 24, 2020 7:09pm | Edited Oct 25, 2020 6:53am
I have attached a 1 minute chart with opposite correlations - Fridays price action. What I think it shows that you have one or two main players moving the market to get as many pips as possible. eurgbp and gbpusd. They have different targets in regards to price levels but the timing is close too 100% on changing direction. This can only be done by one organisation- it may be the data feed providers and therefore price is moving without any cash behind it. If one lagged the other one by 5 seconds it means you could have a win rate off 100%. I have taken this down to 10 seconds and it is identical on turning points. Friday is a typical day on these two pairs - what it tells me the price you see on spot forex is completely controlled by one organisation using an algo - timing the direction changes to the second - result are a huge amount of pips. i understand the sea saw idea - but the turning points in regards to time are identical. The only way this is possible is manipulation by one organisation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 1 minute.png OPPOSITE CORRELATION.png Size: 47 KB
  • #1,474
  • Oct 24, 2020 7:18pm Oct 24, 2020 7:18pm
Quoting Londonpip60
... eurgbp and gbpusd.....
Aren't they just the same thing? They're both gbp. One is priced in dollars and the other is priced in Euros.
If they were both on the same side (gbp/eur) they would be nearly identical. So it's not manipulation that makes them a mirror image, it's that they are both the same thing. gbp.
  • #1,475
  • Oct 24, 2020 8:04pm Oct 24, 2020 8:04pm
Quoting devontrader
{quote} "There is very little Liquidity in any forex market at any one time"-----REALLY?? so what is pending orders and market orders and stop losses??? people trading there money on the markets as in trades,,,,,is liquidity,,,,5trill a day in forex
Ever heard of EXHAUSION

Buy or Sell passive orders are limited in a sharp bullish or bearish move and result in ZERO USEFUL Liquidity, that's an INBALANCE on one side of the order book.

This Trillion dollar turnover suddenly does not offer deep liquidity.
Professional traders trade this inbalance on one side of this order book,
Retail traders trade price action so they just love to guess

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,476
  • Oct 24, 2020 8:05pm Oct 24, 2020 8:05pm
Quoting Londonpip60
I have attached a 1 minute chart with opposite correlations - Fridays price action. What I think it shows that you have one or two main players moving the market to get as many pips as possible. eurgbp and gbpusd. They have different targets in regards to price levels but the timing is close too 100% on changing direction. This can only be done by one organisation- it may be the data feed providers and therefore price is moving without any cash behind it. If one lagged the other one by 5 seconds it means you could have a win rate off 100%. I have...
your missing key info
what your seeing is just gbp direction
think of a seesaw
one side up otherside down
if gbp is up other side is down

your seeing opppsite directions because one is eur and the other is gbp the baae currency from each pair
  • #1,477
  • Oct 25, 2020 4:48am Oct 25, 2020 4:48am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Ever heard of EXHAUSION Buy or Sell passive orders are limited in a sharp bullish or bearish move and result in ZERO USEFUL Liquidity, that's an INBALANCE on one side of the order book. This Trillion dollar turnover suddenly does not offer deep liquidity. Professional traders trade this inbalance on one side of this order book, Retail traders trade price action so they just love to guess Cheers
Wait a second, the professional traders are sellers! They are not speculators and gamblers like the retail.
The professional traders, they sell you the liquidity and make money from commissions.

And where is the order book in this decentralized market? There is no single order book in the forex market. It seems there are hundreds of orders books filled with virtual liquidity controlled by bots which disappears the second someone tries to consume the liquidity. It's a trick. It's a practice called spoofing. They are doing the same shit on the stock markets and it's even worse. You try to buy with market order, but the liquidity is not real. You get slippage every time. And when you place a limit order, nobody wants to take it. It's just sitting there... sometimes for hours. Looks like now there is no people in the real markets. Only bots. Your retail orders never leave the order book of your broker. It's all virtual. The only difference between demo and real account is that with the real account you make legal contract with the broker and each party agrees to pay the other side depending on the net result from the bets. The Forex brokers are simple bookmakers for financial gambling. This is a fact. Read your contracts and terms of service! It's all there.
But I digress too much from the main topic.

The real question is - can we beat this electronic casino by using only technical data from the charts? Because this is what 95% of traders are doing anyway and as we know they lose like crazy.
My point is that IF there is a way to beat the market using only technical data THEN we should be doing this only with automated systems.
If there are some winning combinations of rules then we can find these rules with data mining, AI and neural networks.
There is absolutely no point to search for these rules and combinations manually. You will never find them anyway. It's like finding a needle in a haystack. The algos are far superior in this type of work.
  • #1,478
  • Oct 25, 2020 5:17am Oct 25, 2020 5:17am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
My point is that IF there is a way to beat the market using only technical data THEN we should be doing this only with automated systems. If there are some winning combinations of rules then we can find these rules with data mining, AI and neural networks. There is absolutely no point to search for these rules and combinations manually. You will never find them anyway. It's like finding a needle in a haystack. The algos are far superior in this type of work.
100% right. Manual = blind. Statistics can be used in the best way with EAs.
  • #1,479
  • Oct 25, 2020 5:38am Oct 25, 2020 5:38am
Quoting joyny
{quote} 100% right. Manual = blind. Statistics can be used in the best way with EAs.
each to there own

i respectfully disagree

if you know the footprints of smart money then ride there coat tails
  • #1,480
  • Oct 25, 2020 6:28am Oct 25, 2020 6:28am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Wait a second, the professional traders are sellers! They are not speculators and gamblers like the retail. The professional traders, they sell you the liquidity and make money from commissions. And where is the order book in this decentralized market? There is no single order book in the forex market. It seems there are hundreds of orders books filled with virtual liquidity controlled by bots which disappears the second someone tries to consume the liquidity. It's a trick. It's a practice called spoofing. They are doing the same shit on...
I would say NO, it is very hard to beat the system using technical data to make a wage.
I would say YES, it is very easy to beat the system and make a wage if you trade the inbalance of the order book. I do it every week.
You asked where the order book is within this decentralized forex market is - perhaps you are too blind to see it or haven't bothered to study historical data.

THE ANSWER IS IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES

If you use Algo's, you would need a whole entire portfolio of EA's to make a wage - but this is sixteen times harder than manual trading.
I need to ask you if you are serious about Algo's being superior, have you ever tried being a Algo developer.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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