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  • #3,501
  • Oct 1, 2020 6:58am Oct 1, 2020 6:58am
Hi again Laura

Been out of trading for a few months (it never grabs my whole attention but I keep coming back!) looking again at the Roadmap that I love for it's simplicity - I started to have problems before with overcomplicating it and the trading suffered. I'm sticking with the basics of channel cross and occasionally 2 bar close above/below on a trend(close to SMA) to start and have not added the extra channel.

Looking at the example above can I ask why you chose that exit point? I look left and see the 39.7 low has been there before yesterday but so have lows at 39.56 and 39.32

  • #3,502
  • Oct 1, 2020 7:04am Oct 1, 2020 7:04am
[quote = LauraT; 13193192] Semplice croce di canale sul petrolio. {image} [/ quote]
thank you very much Laura,
you are right the visual sensitivity of a discretionary trader is much more important than 1000 indicators, in this regard I want to ask for information on the reason for your exit on cl. I would have gone out where I put the red arrow because I had:
1) the cross of channel 8 with channel 55
2) the cross of the price on the open line
3) the red trendline was broken
4) the structure of the market in my opinion had started to make increasing lows and increasing max.
the question is:
why did you manage to keep the position anyway?
really compliments and thanks for the explanation
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  • #3,503
  • Oct 1, 2020 7:11am Oct 1, 2020 7:11am
Quoting Wightoil
Hi again Laura Been out of trading for a few months (it never grabs my whole attention but I keep coming back!) looking again at the Roadmap that I love for it's simplicity - I started to have problems before with overcomplicating it and the trading suffered. I'm sticking with the basics of channel cross and occasionally 2 bar close above/below on a trend(close to SMA) to start and have not added the extra channel. Looking at the example above can I ask why you chose that exit point? I look left and see the 39.7 low has been there before yesterday...
Welcome back

It's a good question and I'm glad someone noticed the less than ideal exit.

It was a case of my usual bad habit - anticipating price action rather than waiting for confirmation of price reaction at that level. I expected 39.70 to hold but, by the time I had exited my position and taken a screenshot, I was proved wrong.

As I type, price is 39.46 so I left a lot on the table. But my mentality is such that I acknowledge the error and move onto the next trade.

Hope this helps.
  • #3,504
  • Oct 1, 2020 8:31am Oct 1, 2020 8:31am
New Journal Entry - Continuation Trades

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13193693
  • #3,505
  • Oct 1, 2020 8:41am Oct 1, 2020 8:41am
Quoting maxymm74
[quote = LauraT; 13193192] Semplice croce di canale sul petrolio. {image} [/ quote] thank you very much Laura, you are right the visual sensitivity of a discretionary trader is much more important than 1000 indicators, in this regard I want to ask for information on the reason for your exit on cl. I would have gone out where I put the red arrow because I had: 1) the cross of channel 8 with channel 55 2) the cross of the price on the open line 3) the red trendline was broken 4) the structure of the market in my opinion had started to make increasing...
Certamente

Good analysis, you are right - there were many reasons to suspect that the trend was about to change.

It's difficult to explain exactly why I like the look of certain trends and not others but I'd say in this case that the angle of the move had me convinced that a deeper drop was due. Sorry, I know it's quite a vague answer but a lot of how I trade is now ingrained as intuitive rather than a conscious thought process.
  • #3,506
  • Oct 1, 2020 9:04am Oct 1, 2020 9:04am
  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
Quoting LauraT
New Journal Entry - Continuation Trades https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13193693

This is useful information. I will try and post couple of trades and with exact entries... "continuation trade entry rules"
Actually i am kind of struggling in terms of continuation trade entries, when i miss them initially, leaving that pair, till road map give me another setup. But with patience i am able to take trades and making pips almost near 200SMA.

With this new "continuation trade entry rules" will try to learn more.

thanks Laura
All things are difficult before they are easy.
  • #3,507
  • Oct 1, 2020 9:36am Oct 1, 2020 9:36am
Hello Beautiful people of this thread! I would like your guys opinion on something I have been back testing, and due to my objective and probabilistic way of thinking, I have formed a strategy with hard stop lossess and hard take profits, eiather I win the trade or I lose the trade. I use about 70% of all that I have learned here and still figuring out how to increase my win rate, even though the win rate is between 50%-65%, my RR is what makes it profitable. My question is, how important is it for me to implement market structure or consider it, when entering my trade? Also what concerns me is spread/commissions as I have 4-8 pip SL depending on my entry signal. I wish to progress as a traded and your help with this is much appreciated, thank you!
  • #3,508
  • Oct 1, 2020 9:50am Oct 1, 2020 9:50am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Beauty Have you analysed why you had a bad month?
Thanks Laura. A friend of mine told me once '' you don't need to kiss all the frogs to find your prince'', this is exactly what I am doing , and many of the times at the wrong side of the trend, I get carried away by small divergences in micro trends and overtrade for small pips against the trend, with great success in terms of win %, but every now and then I am wrong and caught against the real trend, then I bent my rules for SL a little, and 1 loss takes away all the winners...other times I jump in the right direction but at the wrong time and I exit at a small loss,decision that I take out of my set rules for the trade ,under the burden of time spent in DD, only to find out later that I was on the right path, just impatient to stay in the trade as planned. Today's entry in Dow is a good example of that.
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  • #3,509
  • Oct 1, 2020 10:33am Oct 1, 2020 10:33am
Horrible day on currencies, I was looking for entries in the London and early NY sessions. Anyone make a good entry today?
  • #3,510
  • Oct 1, 2020 10:34am Oct 1, 2020 10:34am
Quoting Nick24
{quote} Thanks Laura. A friend of mine told me once '' you don't need to kiss all the frogs to find your prince'', this is exactly what I am doing , and many of the times at the wrong side of the trend, I get carried away by small divergences in micro trends and overtrade for small pips against the trend, with great success in terms of win %, but every now and then I am wrong and caught against the real trend, then I bent my rules for SL a little, and 1 loss takes away all the winners...other times I jump in the right direction but at the wrong...
Sounds like an assortment of issues. But one you can try to nip in the bud is trading against the trend. As you are finding out, the high win rate might be good for the dopamine receptors but not so good for the bottom line, as one bad result wipes out a lot of profitable trades.

But, as your big winner showed, you are clearly able to at times pick a direction and stick with it. It's finding the consistency of execution that is key.

I'd suggest trying one of my trading exercises from my journal or devise one of your own choosing. By disciplining yourself to do the same thing 20 times in a row, you will get a feel for what consistency feels like. After that, you can reduce all your trading options down to perhaps two or three setups and specialise in those.
  • #3,511
  • Oct 1, 2020 10:39am Oct 1, 2020 10:39am
Quoting v.padillafx
Hello Beautiful people of this thread! I would like your guys opinion on something I have been back testing, and due to my objective and probabilistic way of thinking, I have formed a strategy with hard stop lossess and hard take profits, eiather I win the trade or I lose the trade. I use about 70% of all that I have learned here and still figuring out how to increase my win rate, even though the win rate is between 50%-65%, my RR is what makes it profitable. My question is, how important is it for me to implement market structure or consider it,...
Hi

If you have a win rate above 50% and a positive RRR, you have found your statistical edge. Congratulations.

Market structure is of course a useful element to be aware of when thinking of entering into trades but, if you are profitable without having to consider it, then all is well.
  • #3,512
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:07am Oct 1, 2020 11:07am
Hi Laura - In your latest journal post on continuation trades, some of the entries appear to be pretty far from the SMA. I'm wondering how you would know when the market proves you wrong? I'd assume you'd find yourself in a hefty drawdown if you wait for the EMA8 channel to completely cross the SMA200 or even the 55 channel. Is there a specific exit strategy you'd suggest to obtain a better risk to reward ratio?
  • #3,513
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:29am Oct 1, 2020 11:29am
Quoting Tensor
Hi Laura - In your latest journal post on continuation trades, some of the entries appear to be pretty far from the SMA. I'm wondering how you would know when the market proves you wrong? I'd assume you'd find yourself in a hefty drawdown if you wait for the EMA8 channel to completely cross the SMA200 or even the 55 channel. Is there a specific exit strategy you'd suggest to obtain a better risk to reward ratio?
Good question

I introduced the use of the 55EMA as I felt that covered the majority of scenarios but I personally use the 13,21,34,55 or 89 channel, depending on the price action.

Knowing when to use which is a matter of experience, probably. But a general guide would be to look at the angle of the move and experiment with different ones to find a 'best fit'.

Everything is always a balancing act/trade-off. In this case we are balancing the protection of our profits with the breathing space a trade might need to reach its destination. Ultimately this has to be a decision for everyone individually. I give my trades more breathing room than most, whereas other traders like to cut out drawdown quickly and move onto the next opportunity.

So, next time you're fortunate enough to catch a runner and be carrying a nice profit, try the different channels and see how much profit you'd have to risk giving back to stay in the trade.

Oh, almost forgot. You could bypass the 8EMA channel entirely when it comes to breathing space. Using a secondary channel could simply mean that, when price closes on the wrong side of that channel, you exit.

Hope this helps.
  • #3,514
  • Oct 1, 2020 2:43pm Oct 1, 2020 2:43pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi If you have a win rate above 50% and a positive RRR, you have found your statistical edge. Congratulations. Market structure is of course a useful element to be aware of when thinking of entering into trades but, if you are profitable without having to consider it, then all is well.
Yes as of now I do not use market structure just rules and entry signals of my strategy but will continue to back test other elements such as Market Structure. Only concern with my strategy is the ranges, although your SL are wider, do you have any comments on my 4-8 pip SL depending on entry signal of course?
  • #3,515
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:02pm Oct 1, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting v.padillafx
{quote} Yes as of now I do not use market structure just rules and entry signals of my strategy but will continue to back test other elements such as Market Structure. Only concern with my strategy is the ranges, although your SL are wider, do you have any comments on my 4-8 pip SL depending on entry signal of course?
Any strategy that has such a tight SL will require momentum to be on your side from the first moment. You haven't said what your entry signal is but I'm assuming you are entering when a bar closes outside the channel?
  • #3,516
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:16pm Oct 1, 2020 3:16pm
Yes the Strategy is based on the 200 SMA and the 8EMA channel. Entry is when candle candlestick closes inside is the first part and when ever candle closes outside channel then I enter. I based my TP depending on my SL but on occasions my SL is 4 PIP if its less, I do not take the trade. This is of course on the 1M TF.
  • #3,517
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:25pm Oct 1, 2020 3:25pm
Quoting v.padillafx
Yes the Strategy is based on the 200 SMA and the 8EMA channel. Entry is when candle candlestick closes inside is the first part and when ever candle closes outside channel then I enter. I based my TP depending on my SL but on occasions my SL is 4 PIP if its less, I do not take the trade. This is of course on the 1M TF.
Sounds interesting keep us updated on how it goes!
  • #3,518
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:34pm Oct 1, 2020 3:34pm
Quoting khaled2259
Hi dear fellows i need gentle coder assistance, the attached indicator is doing fine except for gold, Dow, and other indices. it doesnt draw the low line, only high line. appretiate your kind support and help. {file}
hi LauraT
thanks for your kind reply, the indicator draws custom candle highs, and lows to any time frame like 6H, or 8H and its not moving average.
appreciate if you can help, its not drawing low for gold or Dow but for others no problem . please have a look on the attached snip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.JPG Size: 96 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 HighLow_Custom.mq4   4 KB | 282 downloads
  • #3,519
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:47pm Oct 1, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting khaled2259
{quote} hi LauraT thanks for your kind reply, the indicator draws custom candle highs, and lows to any time frame like 6H, or 8H and its not moving average. appreciate if you can help, its not drawing low for gold or Dow but for others no problem . please have a look on the attached snip. {file} {image}
Ah sorry, I misunderstood.

I don't have any coding skills unfortunately but hopefully someone reading will offer to help you
  • #3,520
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:52pm Oct 1, 2020 3:52pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Sounds interesting keep us updated on how it goes!
Super busy this week and I am still back testing but yes will def share a few trades next week. Thank you.
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