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  • #3,441
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:14am Sep 29, 2020 9:14am
Quoting Tensor
These few days, I noticed that by the time the NY session starts, many of the moves for major forex pairs have already been played out (meaning channels have already deviated far away from the SMA). I've been sitting on the sidelines these few days for this reason and I'm wondering what Laura or any of you full-time traders would do in this case. If opportunities only come up 2 out of 5 days in a week, there's a high chance a string of losses would put you in the red for weeks/months at a time. Perhaps the answer is that we can't just trade channel...
That's the markets for you, I'm afraid. What you will find with successful full time traders is that they are willing to do what others won't - in this case, get up and trade in the middle of the night.

You are doubly unfortunate that you live in that retail-hating land, the USA, so as you say, very limited in the markets you can even trade.

Only option would be high time frame variants, H4 at least. This is easily tradeable that way.

Sorry to say, that sometimes, no matter how much you like a method, if it doesn't suit your lifestyle, then you have to look elsewhere.
  • #3,442
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:24am Sep 29, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Tensor
These few days, I noticed that by the time the NY session starts, many of the moves for major forex pairs have already been played out (meaning channels have already deviated far away from the SMA). I've been sitting on the sidelines these few days for this reason and I'm wondering what Laura or any of you full-time traders would do in this case. If opportunities only come up 2 out of 5 days in a week, there's a high chance a string of losses would put you in the red for weeks/months at a time. Perhaps the answer is that we can't just trade channel...

Lem is right. You might have to make some tough choices about whether you trade earlier or trade longer timeframes, if you want to continue with Roadmap.

Before I get into posting charts on that basis, are you open to trading longer timeframes?
  • #3,443
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:40am Sep 29, 2020 9:40am
Waited for Nasdaq to calm a bit. Lost first trade, it came back on my tight stop. Second short went okay.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,444
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:46am Sep 29, 2020 9:46am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Lem is right. You might have to make some tough choices about whether you trade earlier or trade longer timeframes, if you want to continue with Roadmap. Before I get into posting charts on that basis, are you open to trading longer timeframes?
In the last 5 years or so, I have to admit that it was never my preference to open trades based on timeframes greater than 15min. I can count more times I woke up at 3am to trade the London session, than I have ever opened a trade based on the 1hr+ timeframe. I was never consistently profitable, and my mentality (probably the wrong one to have) was that it would take much longer to validate a strategy and see if it works for me if the frequency of the trades were based on 4hr signals vs 5min. With that being said, I am open to doing whatever it takes (with the exception of moving to Europe ) to get better at this craft whether it be waking up at 3am to trade, or trading a longer timeframe.
  • #3,445
  • Sep 29, 2020 10:00am Sep 29, 2020 10:00am
Quoting Tensor
{quote} In the last 5 years or so, I have to admit that it was never my preference to open trades based on timeframes greater than 15min. I can count more times I woke up at 3am to trade the London session, than I have ever opened a trade based on the 1hr+ timeframe. I was never consistently profitable, and my mentality (probably the wrong one to have) was that it would take much longer to validate a strategy and see if it works for me if the frequency of the trades were based on 4hr signals vs 5min. With that being said, I am open to doing whatever...
Ok, we have options then

After your original post, I took a look at the currency pairs I monitor and found two scenarios. Either they had already played out their 14-day ADR or they were in nasty ranges. I agree with your analysis that there isn't much to trade on a day like this.

It sounds like your preference is going to be to get up earlier and I think that'd be mine too. I do take some longer term position trades but my bread and butter is shorter term trading.

I picked some charts and marked on each of them when you'd wake up during your new regime and when you'd receive your first entry signal (a bar closing on the right side of the channel). These are all pairs that went on to reach ADR so it hopefully offers some encouragement that there will be plenty of pips available to you if you do adjust your trading schedule.

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  • #3,446
  • Sep 29, 2020 10:21am Sep 29, 2020 10:21am
Thanks all for the input!

Quoting LauraT
{quote} Ok, we have options then After your original post, I took a look at the currency pairs I monitor and found two scenarios. Either they had already played out their 14-day ADR or they were in nasty ranges. I agree with your analysis that there isn't much to trade on a day like this. It sounds like your preference is going to be to get up earlier and I think that'd be mine too. I do take some longer term position trades but my bread and butter is shorter term trading. I picked some charts and marked on each of them when you'd wake up...
Laura, it's interesting those are all cross pairs and I'm wondering if there a reason you chose to monitor those instead of the majors? I was always under the impression that the major pairs give us the primary view into the price action whereas the crosses are just derivatives of the majors. An analogy would be - trading crosses feels like trading off of a lagging indicator, whereas trading majors is like trading off of price. Have you found that the roadmap works equally well on crosses and majors?
  • #3,447
  • Sep 29, 2020 10:29am Sep 29, 2020 10:29am
Quoting Tensor
Thanks all for the input! {quote} Laura, it's interesting those are all cross pairs and I'm wondering if there a reason you chose to monitor those instead of the majors? I was always under the impression that the major pairs give us the primary view into the price action whereas the crosses are just derivatives of the majors. An analogy would be - trading crosses feels like trading off of a lagging indicator, whereas trading majors is like trading off of price. Have you found that the roadmap works equally well on crosses and majors?
I've yet to find a market I couldn't apply roadmap to, be it crypto, commodities, majors, crosses or whatever.

I personally trade what I see on individual charts. I don't spend too much time on inter-market analysis. Was just randomness that I picked three crosses though, I do trade the majors too.
  • #3,448
  • Sep 29, 2020 11:16am Sep 29, 2020 11:16am
Quoting LauraT
{quote}
In the turn on the ADR line... do you use any indicator other than the turn of the channel to decide to enter?

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  • #3,449
  • Sep 29, 2020 11:30am Sep 29, 2020 11:30am
Quoting SpanishHere
{quote} In the turn on the ADR line... do you use any indicator other than the turn of the channel to decide to enter? {image}
I advise you to focus on channel crosses and channel failures. ADR reversals are more advanced and have higher likelihood of going wrong.

Here's an example of what can happen (from today)...

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In general, I pay attention to the RSI figure and overall market structure. On the chart you posted, RSI was up around 70 so it's definitely not a candidate for a short.
  • #3,450
  • Sep 29, 2020 11:41am Sep 29, 2020 11:41am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} I advise you to focus on channel crosses and channel failures. ADR reversals are more advanced and have higher likelihood of going wrong. Here's an example of what can happen (from today)... {image} In general, I pay attention to the RSI figure and overall market structure. On the chart you posted, RSI was up around 70 so it's definitely not a candidate for a short.
Thank you, I'll focus on the crosses and the faults.

Even so today I ended up positive.
  • #3,451
  • Sep 29, 2020 12:19pm Sep 29, 2020 12:19pm
My quickest trade ever on the DOW which lasted all of one minute! I entered after the break of my trend line. The next bar dropped 50 points and I was out on the open of the next bar. A lot of times the will a retracement after a big bar like that. So I wanted to bank what I had at that point.
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  • #3,452
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:06pm Sep 29, 2020 1:06pm
Been a day where outside distractions have limited my ability to get trades on but did manage a little on Gold.

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Entry was all kinds of late and I was duly punished with some early drawdown. Channel stayed above the SMA though and I was able to stay in until price closed under the 55EMA channel.
  • #3,453
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:24pm Sep 29, 2020 1:24pm
A few people have asked for my template. In the extra folder, you can add the "toggle borders" indicator which is useful for a multi screen setup.
Read the instructions to get it working. Templates can sometimes be a bit annoying to transfer over.
X and Y coordinates change, so just line things up how you want them.

Feel free to message me if you need any help setting it up.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip RoadmapMainChart.zip   5.5 MB | 884 downloads


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  • #3,454
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:25pm Sep 29, 2020 1:25pm
Today's only trade: GBPJPY +30 pips.

At Frankfurt Open, JPY was pretty much flooring it across the board (in terms of currency strength/weakness).
After the initial 20 pip push up, I waited for price to retrace to the lower EMA8 band for an entry.
The initial target was PdH @ 46 pips, but I got out at 30 pips, the move up clearly running out of steam.

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LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #3,455
  • Sep 29, 2020 2:01pm Sep 29, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting Kyle
A few people have asked for my template. In the extra folder, you can add the "toggle borders" indicator which is useful for a multi screen setup. Read the instructions to get it working. Templates can sometimes be a bit annoying to transfer over. X and Y coordinates change, so just line things up how you want them. Feel free to message me if you need any help setting it up.{file} {image}{image}
did not ask for it, , but ill start using it, thanks
  • #3,456
  • Sep 29, 2020 2:12pm Sep 29, 2020 2:12pm
Quoting bam.kta
{quote} did not ask for it, , but ill start using it, thanks
Others have asked
  • #3,457
  • Edited 2:57pm Sep 29, 2020 2:37pm | Edited 2:57pm
Here are my 3 major trades today. Two winners, one loser. A winning day overall, which is all that matters!

Trade 1 - Loss. GBPUSD. This turned out to be a horrible ranging day for this pair. Strong up move yesterday, but as it had retraced nicely overnight I felt comfortable entering at the bottom of the channel when it rejected the 200 SMA at London Open. As you can see, it didn't go anywhere. Unfortunately I wasn't at the screen during the mid-session spike up, or I would have closed at break even. Ended up closing the trade when the channel crossed downward shortly after.

Trade 2 - Win. USDCHF. This pair had been in a strong downtrend all day but hadn't reached the ADR. As the 20 CCI was high and RSI was still bearish, I entered on this retracement. The clear support/resistance level just above helped too. A nice confirmation of a trendline break just after entry. Closed this when price reacted just a pip or so away from the ADR and started retracing.

Trade 3 - Win. EURAUD. Channel rejection, enter at the first retracement. I was concious of a weekly pivot just below (yellow horizontal line), but it sailed straight through. When I saw price reaction to an important previous resistance zone (look left! manually drawn red line) I closed for a nice profit.

Hope everyone had a good trading day!
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  • #3,458
  • Sep 29, 2020 3:16pm Sep 29, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} I've yet to find a market I couldn't apply roadmap to, be it crypto, commodities, majors, crosses or whatever. I personally trade what I see on individual charts. I don't spend too much time on inter-market analysis. Was just randomness that I picked three crosses though, I do trade the majors too.
Was that 9am UK trading time on your charts? Means I could have a lie in if I switched to forex
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,459
  • Sep 29, 2020 4:17pm Sep 29, 2020 4:17pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Was that 9am UK trading time on your charts? Means I could have a lie in if I switched to forex
8am UK time - no lie-in for you
  • #3,460
  • Sep 29, 2020 7:58pm Sep 29, 2020 7:58pm
Quoting Tensor
These few days, I noticed that by the time the NY session starts, many of the moves for major forex pairs have already been played out (meaning channels have already deviated far away from the SMA). I've been sitting on the sidelines these few days for this reason and I'm wondering what Laura or any of you full-time traders would do in this case. If opportunities only come up 2 out of 5 days in a week, there's a high chance a string of losses would put you in the red for weeks/months at a time. Perhaps the answer is that we can't just trade channel...
Hi Tensor, I am also in the US. You can trade the indices via futures. I am only on demo at the moment, but I plan to go live in the future. I trade just the DOW at the moment on the 1 min and there are lots of entries there during NY session. I am planning on using AMP. Feel free to Google them and take a look if you are interested. I hope this helps.
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