Disliked{quote} Hi Emmanuel! I am learning to analyze high to low timeframes, from WTDA to trading H4 timeframes. For the pair NJ next week, the trend will be short and the target target will be 64,200 as there is very strong support there. The weekly candle closed above the lows and below the 5 EMA along with the HMA. Whether I am wrong anywhere do not expect you to advise me. Thank you very much! {image}Ignored
Good you made some observations on your own chart.
I usually do my Weekly Top down Analysis by first looking at blank charts without the oscillators Stoch and RSI.
On my Monthly I have already identified the MN Price Swing Levels. Those violet colour lines on my chart below.
Then on my Weekly, I study the ATR(52) which is roughly the average range over the 52-weeks period.
I also look at the over price action and see the market type conditions.
Notice the Weekly ATR has been rising since Feb 2020 and the most recent is about 185 pips which is quite high. A high ATR when the Weekly is choppy is not good for Position Trading on Daily.
From where price is now 69.04 , it will not likely to drop to 64.00 in 1~2 weeks.
If I trade the Daily, then I would be looking at swing move lower to the region near 67.00.
Edit: Daily can also see swing to the high region near 70.50.
However, since you plan to trade H4 next week, the 4H swing during the week can at best max 185 pips but I have some doubts if next week will be strong bears for JPY pairs. Market is cautious with new PM Suga who is known to be strong supporter of the former PM Abe fiscal policy. Next week is also PM Suga meeting with his BoJ Governor Kuroda.
Trading H4 next week, knowing the Weekly market condition and the Daily will likely go sideways when the price action and oscillators are oversold region.
I would simply look at H4 for the swing high and swing low, and look for the Crossover setup conditions... which mean can buy and sell in the same week. This means you have to be looking for aggressive H4 entries at the swing high and swing low. The Crossover setups with both the two Stoch and RSI crossing at 50-level will be elusive. I woiuld be looking at the two Stoch %k lines when they are closed together and even can be touching while the move along with the price. But we never know how price will behave next week and we are traders and it is good to be prepared.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
1
4