Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets | Page 170 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Software tools for LauraT's Roadmap 169 replies

Forex Brokerage Roadmap 4 replies

Best way to read all of someone's posts? 3 replies

Simple way to read chart 11 replies

Attachments: Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets
Exit Attachments

Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #3,381
  • Sep 26, 2020 3:47pm Sep 26, 2020 3:47pm
Hello all.

A few days ago I came across this topic and I would like to thank the creator of this system for its idea and improvement. Personally, I am very interested in this, but I prefer to trade long term. I would like to ask can this be used based on the 1H interval? If so, what should I pay attention to?
  • #3,382
  • Sep 26, 2020 3:49pm Sep 26, 2020 3:49pm
I don't know if I'm doing it right, but I have allowed myself to add support and resistance lines to the main chart. Below TMA and PEAK. But so far I can't match it with your SMA200 or RSI.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 02.PNG Size: 46 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #3,383
  • Sep 26, 2020 4:05pm Sep 26, 2020 4:05pm
Looking at the SMA and RSI here.
ADR has been hit.
And as I understand correctly, a downward trend is expected here ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 06.PNG Size: 50 KB
  • #3,384
  • Sep 26, 2020 4:46pm Sep 26, 2020 4:46pm
Quoting LauraT
New journal post - Mastering Trading (Step One) Find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13185758 Please keep any comments or questions in this thread as the journal is not interactive. Thank you.
Actually, I'm reading "trading in the zone" by Mark Douglas now.
  • #3,385
  • Sep 26, 2020 6:57pm Sep 26, 2020 6:57pm
Quoting LauraT
New journal post - Mastering Trading (Step One) Find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13185758 Please keep any comments or questions in this thread as the journal is not interactive. Thank you.
You are one of the very, very few people who have even heard of the fear of success, much less one who understands it.

Understanding that aspect of my life attitude when I first moved into trading was key to my success.
  • #3,386
  • Sep 26, 2020 11:50pm Sep 26, 2020 11:50pm
I have a daily ADR indicator with a historical record. I found it very close to the High and Low EMA8 channel used here. High and Low EMA8 is marked with a dashed blue line. The daily ADR that has been reached is marked with a thick blue line. The daily ADR that has not been reached remains a dashed red line. As I noticed, an ADR hit near the High and Low corridor EMA8 and MA200 can make a big difference. Only still everything contradicts the SMA200 / RSI

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Przechwytywanie.PNG Size: 50 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Przechwytywani.PNG Size: 42 KB
  • #3,387
  • Sep 27, 2020 12:30am Sep 27, 2020 12:30am
Although combined with the TMA and MA200 lines.
SMA and RSI would have coverage. And a confirmation worth attention

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ,3.PNG Size: 60 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ,2.PNG Size: 60 KB
  • #3,388
  • Sep 27, 2020 3:47am Sep 27, 2020 3:47am
Quoting Jarass1080
Although combined with the TMA and MA200 lines. SMA and RSI would have coverage. And a confirmation worth attention {image}{image}
This is not like the 'RoadMap' approach we have here but it might make a good subject for your own thread should you wish to start one.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,389
  • Sep 27, 2020 4:02am Sep 27, 2020 4:02am
Quoting Jarass1080
Hello all. A few days ago I came across this topic and I would like to thank the creator of this system for its idea and improvement. Personally, I am very interested in this, but I prefer to trade long term. I would like to ask can this be used based on the 1H interval? If so, what should I pay attention to?
Read from POST 1 then read Laura's journal or vice versa. No time interval is specified. You need to stop jumping from thread to thread and focus on one approach.
I don't wish to sound rude but you could test Laura's method and report back or take your own approach as seen in your charts and insert the result in your own thread.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,390
  • Sep 27, 2020 4:06am Sep 27, 2020 4:06am
[quote = rzepa15; 13186201] {quote} To nie jest podejście do „mapy drogowej”, które tutaj stosujemy, ale może być dobrym tematem dla Twojego własnego wątku, jeśli zechcesz go rozpocząć. [/ quote]

Yes, I know this is different from the roadmap.
And I'm sorry.
But I was very interested in the SMA200 / RSI ratio. I wonder with what accuracy it works and whether it shows in real time. Because I'm working on improving a strategy that will allow you to catch mini trends.
  • #3,391
  • Sep 27, 2020 4:13am Sep 27, 2020 4:13am
[quote = rzepa15; 13186206] {quote} Przeczytaj z POST 1, a następnie przeczytaj dziennik Laury lub odwrotnie. Nie określono przedziału czasu. Musisz przestać przeskakiwać od wątku do wątku i skupić się na jednym podejściu. Nie chcę brzmieć niegrzecznie, ale możesz przetestować metodę Laury i zdać raport lub zastosować własne podejście, jak widać na wykresach, i wstawić wynik do własnego wątku. [/ Quote]

I understand you and I agree.
  • #3,392
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:05am Sep 27, 2020 5:05am
Quoting btrfx1
{quote} Hi Laura, I want to say thank you for the last post (as well as all the others) in the Journal. I hear Mr. D's words over n over again---It's a Random Event, and I don't believe I ever understood that. I am studying his work now---A million "Thank You's" Like Kyle said above burning ourselves repeatedly, and failing to do anything about it is Insane. Repeating mistakes but expecting a different result So cut the BS Ben, and let me find my subconscious mate, cos we gonna sit down an have a serious debate to find out how we can change a few...
Thanks for the topic idea, Ben - I can certainly write something on the unconscious psychological drivers we experience as it relates to trading. Can also explore the 'reptile brain' (the older part of the human brain that deals with some very basic instincts). I'll have a think and see if I can pull together something next weekend.
  • #3,393
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:12am Sep 27, 2020 5:12am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You are one of the very, very few people who have even heard of the fear of success, much less one who understands it. Understanding that aspect of my life attitude when I first moved into trading was key to my success.
It's a fascinating sub-topic and I know I just gave it a passing mention but I didn't want to go too far down any particular rabbit hole

You're right of course, the majority of people will think it's craziness to suggest success could challenge our core self-beliefs and life expectations. What's particularly fascinating is the subtle, almost seemingly random, ways we find to confirm those biases and stop ourselves progressing.
  • #3,394
  • Sep 27, 2020 11:23am Sep 27, 2020 11:23am
Quoting LauraT
New journal post - Mastering Trading (Step One) Find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13185758 Please keep any comments or questions in this thread as the journal is not interactive. Thank you.
This is a wonderful post containing lots of valuable lessons. Thank you, Laura.
Along with your previous journal post containing the exercises, this arrived at the perfect time, having had my best couple of weeks followed by a bad time last week.

I found those exercises very helpful. I find a bit of backtesting an ideal remedy when you’ve got one wheel on the road and another heading towards the ditch. Especially when you remove the doubt by adding strict entry rules like how you presented them.
I like to enter a trade when a candle closes outside the 8EMA showing momentum in my direction but I was shocked at how high the win % of the 2 candle closing exercise was. Great stuff!

Apart from trading psychology, an area I’m struggling with at the moment is sticking with a comfortable time frame while working full time. There is nothing I would like more than to be able to monitor the screens full time but for now, carpentry pays the bills. I currently trade 1HR. Sometimes I have 2 or 3 trades on the go but I am going to try to limit that as I’m not properly managing active trades.
Any advice from anyone on how they trade the roadmap around work and on higher time frames would be much appreciated.
Thanks.
  • #3,395
  • Sep 27, 2020 12:21pm Sep 27, 2020 12:21pm
Quoting StrandedBill
{quote} This is a wonderful post containing lots of valuable lessons. Thank you, Laura. Along with your previous journal post containing the exercises, this arrived at the perfect time, having had my best couple of weeks followed by a bad time last week. I found those exercises very helpful. I find a bit of backtesting an ideal remedy when you’ve got one wheel on the road and another heading towards the ditch. Especially when you remove the doubt by adding strict entry rules like how you presented them. I like to enter a trade when a candle closes...
This is a good question. Someone I know is also working full time and feels he can only trade from these higher time frames. If someone here is experienced in following this roadmap on 1hr+ time frames, do you have any advice? I know it has been said that you can trade it on any time frame, but are there any differences that could be worth pointing out? I cannot help in this area as I am glued to the 1m charts

Once I am more comfortable with this method, I would also like to look for swing/long term opportunities. So any tips from the higher time frame traders would be much appreciated. If there is no difference, then that's great I guess
  • #3,396
  • Edited 3:40pm Sep 27, 2020 2:30pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting Kyle
{quote} This is a good question. Someone I know is also working full time and feels he can only trade from these higher time frames. If someone here is experienced in following this roadmap on 1hr+ time frames, do you have any advice? I know it has been said that you can trade it on any time frame, but are there any differences that could be worth pointing out? I cannot help in this area as I am glued to the 1m charts Once I am more comfortable with this method, I would also like to look for swing/long term opportunities. So any tips from...
Thanks Kyle,

On the hourly I’m having difficulty with how long to let trades run. Some trades I have taken profit at the ADR and others I have let run, sometimes for several days. At the moment it seems that the longer I leave a trade open, the more likely I am to tinker, as I fear it biting back.
This coming week I’m going to look to take partial profits if ADR is hit and then chill out and look to improve my in-trade management.
Thanks Laura for the journal posts which address’s so much of this.
  • #3,397
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:17pm Sep 27, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting StrandedBill
{quote} I currently trade 1HR. Sometimes I have 2 or 3 trades on the go but I am going to try to limit that as I’m not properly managing active trades. Any advice from anyone on how they trade the roadmap around work and on higher time frames would be much appreciated. Thanks.
Hi Bill

I do occasionally trade higher timeframes as I like to have longer term trades in the market as well as my daily trades. The methodology is pretty much the same. Main difference is, as expected, stop losses have to be bigger and take profit amount should be bigger too.

I've chosen an hourly chart at random to show how you could trade it.

NZD/CAD - I've marked two potential long entry points and two potential short entry points. The first arrow is an aggressive long entry, the second is a conservative long entry. Aggressive being the 8EMA channel crossing above the 55EMA channel (double channel approach). Conservative being the 8EMA channel crossing above the SMA (standard roadmap approach). The third arrow is an aggressive short and the fourth arrow is a conservative short.

I've also marked areas where you'd be stopped out (in profit) if you were applying the rule that you'd exit once price closed on the wrong side of the 55EMA channel. Of course, it's entirely possible you'd have taken profit before these points but it serves as an example.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADH1.png Size: 59 KB


Entry 1 is at 0.8806 on 11th September.
Entry 2 is at 0.8811 on 14th September.
Exit is at 0.8845 on 17th September.

Entry 3 is at 0.8853 on 21st September.
Entry 4 is at 0.8830 on 22nd September.
Exit is at 0.8787 on 25th September.

So, the long delivers between 34 and 39 pips, the short delivers between 43 and 66 pips. This clearly isn't a great return for a week's worth of market risk. If we look at the peak profit for the long, it's between 84 and 89 pips (with a high of 0.8895). Whereas the peak profit for the short would be between 106 and 129 pips (with a low of 0.8724). Clearly this suggests we cannot afford to wait for a close under the 55EMA.

Now let's add historical ADR (blue solid lines) to the chart and see if ADR High exits deliver a superior return.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nc2.png Size: 70 KB


For the longs, we see that we have 5 potential exits at the ADR Highs (0.8835,0.8854,0.8894,0.8890,0.8926). Depending on when we exited, we're now looking at profit between 24 and 115 pips. We could take a little off each day it hits ADR High, delivering profit of 24,43,83,79,115 pips. Problem being, we don't know in advance how many days in a row price will hit ADR High. So is there another way we could approach it?

Let's look instead at ADR Low for our long. Price hitting ADR Low would clearly be a bearish sign so this could provide good notice of a change in direction. The first time price does this is on the 18th September at 0.8883. Giving us a return of between 72 and 77 pips. A much more respectable return. A pretty good 86% of peak profit.

If we apply the same logic to our short, we see that the exit would be the same as the initial method (delivering between 43 and 66 pips). But do we notice anything about price action in relation to ADR that could help us squeeze a bit more profit out of the market? The first two days after our entry, price hits the ADR Low but on the third day it does not. I'd suggest this is a valid exit signal. Although it didn't hit ADR High, the failure to hit ADR Low suggests the move might be running out of steam. The market closed that day at 0.8736, increasing our profit figure to between 94 and 117 pips. A pretty good 89% of peak profit.

I hope this makes sense as it's quite convoluted. But I wanted to give a flavour of some of the many ways you can approach trade management using what already exists within the roadmap. Please let me know if anything is unclear.
  • #3,398
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:34pm Sep 27, 2020 5:34pm
laura,

question, for instance, on the second entry, 0.8811 on 14th September, lets say the market goes the other way, when would you close it? if the price goes below the 200 ema, or lower ?
  • #3,399
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:38pm Sep 27, 2020 5:38pm
Quoting bam.kta
laura, question, for instance, on the second entry, 0.8811 on 14th September, lets say the market goes the other way, when would you close it? if the price goes below the 200 ema, or lower ?
Hi

I'd close it when the market proved me wrong so, in this instance, that'd be when the 8EMA channel went below SMA200.
  • #3,400
  • Sep 28, 2020 12:45am Sep 28, 2020 12:45am
Early Dax trade to blow away the weekend cobwebs.

+107

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30Sb1220M1.png Size: 43 KB
4 traders viewing now