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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,041
  • Sep 22, 2020 9:40am Sep 22, 2020 9:40am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, I'm short EU. But a possible long setup is coming up @ 1.17 confluence of round number and S. I'd play it with 20 pips sl and 100-150 pips tp. {image}
I agree with you. It does seem like it does not want to break the bottom...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,042
  • Sep 22, 2020 9:43am Sep 22, 2020 9:43am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I agree with you. It does seem like it does not want to break the bottom...
Just as I was saying this, there it goes.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,043
  • Sep 22, 2020 9:59am Sep 22, 2020 9:59am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, daily chart remains bullish above 0.66, but there is a possible bearish wedge pattern in progress. I'm already short NU as posted before. The M30 chart shows a possible short entry around 0.6765- 0.6775 with SL above 0.6785. TP @ 0.64 (RRR 18:1) {image} {image}
NZDUSD, short trade update, moved sl to 0.671 (+60), tp @ 0.64
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH1 922.png Size: 38 KB
  • #8,044
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:02am Sep 22, 2020 10:02am
Im back in at a break of monthly support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD(£)M15bb.png Size: 30 KB
  • #8,045
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:16am Sep 22, 2020 10:16am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Just as I was saying this, there it goes.
The way it is acting, this may be the low for EU. Anything can happen, but the big guys are not letting it drop and DXY already hit 94 which was going to be the high in my book.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,046
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:17am Sep 22, 2020 10:17am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, daily shows a topping pattern, whether it's a broadening formation or a complex or simple H&Sh (as Al suggested). Structural S @ 1.1750-1.17. {image}
Shorting EU has been like "mission: impossible". too soon to count the chickens, a daily close below 1.17 is needed to be on the safe side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 922.png Size: 34 KB
  • #8,047
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:20am Sep 22, 2020 10:20am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, I'm short EU. But a possible long setup is coming up @ 1.17 confluence of round number and S. I'd play it with 20 pips sl and 100-150 pips tp. {image}
EURUSD, long trade update, for those who took this trade, I'd move my sl to b/e whenever I get a chance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 17.PNG Size: 64 KB
  • #8,048
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:58am Sep 22, 2020 10:58am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, daily remains bearish as long as down trend TL and R @ 1.30 hold. H4 is also bearish. H1 is mixed. Next target S zone @ 1.2650 {image}
GBPUSD, short trade, I'm expecting S @ 1.27 and 1.2650
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily 922 212.png Size: 35 KB
  • #8,049
  • Sep 22, 2020 11:17am Sep 22, 2020 11:17am
USDCHF, daily, saucer pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF saucer.PNG Size: 110 KB
  • #8,050
  • Sep 22, 2020 12:25pm Sep 22, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, I went short on the TL break, will add if it bounces
AUDUSD, possible short setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 922.png Size: 42 KB
  • #8,051
  • Sep 22, 2020 12:38pm Sep 22, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
QQQ, M5 {image}
QQQ (H1)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QQQ 922.PNG Size: 90 KB
  • #8,052
  • Sep 22, 2020 1:42pm Sep 22, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, daily, saucer pattern {image}
USDCHF, possible long setups.


A note to novice traders: all of the current trade ideas are basically long USD. So you need to divide your risk if you trade correlating pairs. For example, if you are comfortable with 2% risk per trade and you trade long USDCHF, and short EU, AU, and NU, you should risk 0.5% per trade not 2%.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFM15 922 .png Size: 41 KB
  • #8,053
  • Sep 22, 2020 2:27pm Sep 22, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, for now daily remains bullish above S zone @ 1.17 and 1.1750. But I'm wondering if a complex H&Sh pattern is in progress. {image} {image}
EURUSD, if it closes like this, it will be good for the short side. I'll add if it rallies to retest former S turned R @ 1.1750-1.1775
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 9221.png Size: 33 KB
  • #8,054
  • Edited 7:18pm Sep 22, 2020 7:01pm | Edited 7:18pm
AUDJPY, ending diagonal pattern (H1), possible long setup
Daily chart shows bearish setup, so this might be a retracement
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ H1 229.PNG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ d922.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #8,055
  • Sep 22, 2020 7:45pm Sep 22, 2020 7:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, daily chart remains bullish above 0.66, but there is a possible bearish wedge pattern in progress. I'm already short NU as posted before. The M30 chart shows a possible short entry around 0.6765- 0.6775 with SL above 0.6785. TP @ 0.64 (RRR 18:1) {image} {image}
NZDUSD, short trade, lets see if it can break the neckline @ 066 and completes the double top formation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily 922a.png Size: 43 KB
  • #8,056
  • Sep 22, 2020 8:12pm Sep 22, 2020 8:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDJPY, ending diagonal pattern (H1), possible long setup Daily chart shows bearish setup, so this might be a retracement {image} {image}
AUDJPY (H1), lets see if this is what I think it is. it should start going up from here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUJ H123.PNG Size: 123 KB
  • #8,057
  • Sep 22, 2020 8:22pm Sep 22, 2020 8:22pm
EU, the beautiful topping pattern completed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU round 922.PNG Size: 113 KB
  • #8,058
  • Sep 22, 2020 9:03pm Sep 22, 2020 9:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDJPY (H1), lets see if this is what I think it is. it should start going up from here {image}
AUDJPY, long trade, will move sl to b/e if it goes a bit higher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH1 922.png Size: 33 KB
  • #8,059
  • Sep 22, 2020 9:39pm Sep 22, 2020 9:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDJPY, long trade, will move sl to b/e if it goes a bit higher {image}
stopped out
  • #8,060
  • Sep 23, 2020 3:37am Sep 23, 2020 3:37am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, daily remains bearish as long as down trend TL and R @ 1.30 hold. H4 is also bearish. H1 is mixed. Next target S zone @ 1.2650 {image}
GU, daily remains bearish against 1.30. But I think we're getting close to a potential S zone @ 1.2650.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily 923.png Size: 38 KB
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