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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,941
  • Sep 16, 2020 2:30pm Sep 16, 2020 2:30pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, with the current count, abc correction can end somewhere below 1.3035. R zone @ 1.30-1.3035 might provide a short setup {image} {image}
GBPUSD, short trade. It is still in that rising channel and short term is bullish above 1.2875.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 916 202012.png Size: 43 KB
  • #7,942
  • Sep 16, 2020 2:52pm Sep 16, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD {image}
NZDUSD, short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 9162.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,943
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:08pm Sep 16, 2020 3:08pm
I would feel more confident with the short trade if 38.2% on the daily chart has been reached...yes, I had short trades today too...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.16.30M.png Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.16.daily.png Size: 82 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,944
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:17pm Sep 16, 2020 3:17pm
Quoting Coreg2004
I would feel more confident with the short trade of 38.2% on the daily chart has been reached...yes, I had short trades today too... {image} {image}
yea, I realized I went short too soon after seeing the overlapping wave structure in the drop.
  • #7,945
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:28pm Sep 16, 2020 3:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, I realized I went short too soon after seeing the overlapping wave structure in the drop.
it was good intra-day trade (off of daily range ext.-yellow box and close to 100%dailyATR(14))... you got min time to the upside (3 days), now let's see if the retracement to the upside can be stretched to 5 days...did you have the feeling it doesn't want to go down?...

edit: I'm not saying it won't go lower...I just described my trade with my intra-day objective...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,946
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:34pm Sep 16, 2020 3:34pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} it was good intra-day trade (off of daily range ext.-yellow box and close to 100%dailyATR(14))... you got min time to the upside (3 days), now let's see if the retracement to the upside can be stretched to 5 days...did you have the feeling it doesn't want to go down?... edit: I'm not saying it won't go lower...I just described my trade with my intra-day objective...
yea, it was good for 50-60 pips, more than enough as I went in with a 20 pips sl.
  • #7,947
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:38pm Sep 16, 2020 3:38pm
EURUSD, I'm entertaining this ascending broadening pattern
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily broadening.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bradening ascending.PNG Size: 75 KB
  • #7,948
  • Sep 16, 2020 4:47pm Sep 16, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting shahab8b
SPY {image}
SPY, another down leg can help DXY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY 916b.PNG Size: 92 KB
  • #7,949
  • Sep 16, 2020 5:54pm Sep 16, 2020 5:54pm
EURUSD, H1 remains bearish against 1.1880, but this can change quickly as daily remains bullish against 1.175-1.17 S zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 916 21.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #7,950
  • Sep 16, 2020 7:41pm Sep 16, 2020 7:41pm
EURUSD, watching that TL, I'm looking to add if we get a bounce to 1.18
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 916 2020 7y.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,951
  • Sep 17, 2020 6:44am Sep 17, 2020 6:44am
EURUSD, the rejection @ S zone 1.1750 was too strong to my liking. for now it's not very clear, can turn south from 1.18-1.1820 or break up again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 917 21.PNG Size: 108 KB
  • #7,952
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:04am Sep 17, 2020 7:04am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, the rejection @ S zone 1.1750 was too strong to my liking. for now it's not very clear, can turn south from 1.18-1.1820 or break up again. {image}
FX option expiries for Thursday September 17 at the 10am NY cut
EUR/USD
1.1700 501m euro
1.1775 530m
1.1800 943m
1.1850 1.2bn
1.1875 1.0bn

This might be the reason, they don't let this go down for now.
  • #7,953
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:06am Sep 17, 2020 7:06am
Quoting shahab8b
EURJPY, possible H&Sh?? {image}
EURJPY, short trade, added more after the neckline was broken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 917 23.png Size: 39 KB
  • #7,954
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:13am Sep 17, 2020 7:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, with the current count, abc correction can end somewhere below 1.3035. R zone @ 1.30-1.3035 might provide a short setup {image} {image}
GU, holding short, the rising channel is broken, good for a bearish case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 917.png Size: 42 KB
  • #7,955
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:20am Sep 17, 2020 7:20am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50 {image}
USDJPY, short trade update, moved sl to (+80), tp @ 101
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily 917.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,956
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:28am Sep 17, 2020 7:28am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, almost there, possible long setup @ 0.91 {image}
EURGBP, long trade, got stopped out on the first attempt with -10, but the setup was still valid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH1 917 .png Size: 41 KB
  • #7,957
  • Sep 17, 2020 12:03pm Sep 17, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, I'm entertaining this ascending broadening pattern {image} {image}
we can see a bearish continuation pattern now.
long lower wick shows us that bulls attempting a rally that ends up fizzling out on the second candle, unable to push the close above the prior candle's close. Theoretically, it is expected that the price will continue lower following the pattern.
lets see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 24 KB
  • #7,958
  • Sep 17, 2020 12:09pm Sep 17, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} we can see a bearish continuation pattern now. long lower wick shows us that bulls attempting a rally that ends up fizzling out on the second candle, unable to push the close above the prior candle's close. Theoretically, it is expected that the price will continue lower following the pattern. lets see {image}
On the other hand we can see the end of a pullback
now I'm in bear camp EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USINDX.Z20H4.png Size: 25 KB
  • #7,959
  • Sep 17, 2020 12:26pm Sep 17, 2020 12:26pm
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} we can see a bearish continuation pattern now. long lower wick shows us that bulls attempting a rally that ends up fizzling out on the second candle, unable to push the close above the prior candle's close. Theoretically, it is expected that the price will continue lower following the pattern. lets see {image}
Thanks for the chart Hussin. I agree with you. I'm not sold on total a bullish scenario atm. H1/H4 seems mixed with a very subtle bearish preference. However, that daily S zone @ 1.17-1.1750 seems very well protected by big players.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H1 17.PNG Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #7,960
  • Sep 18, 2020 5:51am Sep 18, 2020 5:51am
EURUSD, holding short, M5, watching this expanding triangle with a bearish bias. it is a bidirectional pattern. An upside side breakout might be limited by R zone below 1.19
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5 918.png Size: 43 KB
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