Considering stats from 2018 then our chances to hit one of those are just %8.
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Take it easy.
1
- #123
- Edited 3:37am Sep 13, 2020 3:21am | Edited 3:37am
Added TakeProfit Pip Check.
It means, Once HL or LH is broken. We have atleast %80 of the time occured for LH and HL price took the high and low of the break candles and moved atleast +5 pip further.
So this is Distance to the low or high and adittionally 5 pip
There is super slight difference with 0 pip and 5 pip. Means once those Highs or Lows are taken out, Price likely to travel +5 pip more with %99-95 rate. Thats crazy. Ofcourse Drawdown is not calculated that case. Its followed untill the opposite break happens.
It tells us that literally if you place limit order to those highs and lows for +5 from high /-5 from low pips it would be worked properly %99 to %95 of the time. With the exit of next Opposite or same directional break.. Calculating total Pip count at the opposite exits which considered as lose would give us conclusion whether we have been profitable or not for the checked data period.
Considering there are 1pip spread brokers, Might Good chance to be profitable without any filters just with basic approach..
The other approach can be calculating the consectuive failures that is not happened for +5 pip.. Waiting for the failure and going after that gives us even better odds to win..
It means, Once HL or LH is broken. We have atleast %80 of the time occured for LH and HL price took the high and low of the break candles and moved atleast +5 pip further.
So this is Distance to the low or high and adittionally 5 pip
There is super slight difference with 0 pip and 5 pip. Means once those Highs or Lows are taken out, Price likely to travel +5 pip more with %99-95 rate. Thats crazy. Ofcourse Drawdown is not calculated that case. Its followed untill the opposite break happens.
It tells us that literally if you place limit order to those highs and lows for +5 from high /-5 from low pips it would be worked properly %99 to %95 of the time. With the exit of next Opposite or same directional break.. Calculating total Pip count at the opposite exits which considered as lose would give us conclusion whether we have been profitable or not for the checked data period.
Considering there are 1pip spread brokers, Might Good chance to be profitable without any filters just with basic approach..
The other approach can be calculating the consectuive failures that is not happened for +5 pip.. Waiting for the failure and going after that gives us even better odds to win..
Inserted Video
Take it easy.
- #127
- Edited 12:39pm Sep 13, 2020 12:21pm | Edited 12:39pm
Here is the thing.
Imagine there is 1 box with 100 papers. Inside of this 1 box there is 2 papers written FAIL.
If you keep picking from that box. Sooner or later you will find those failures.
Now imagine you have 100 different boxes.
You can keep taking 1 paper from each.. So at the end you can still picked 100 papers and none of them are failure ones.
So thats why if we keep taking every signal we will sooner or later fail. That is my reason to stay away from EA' They will fail sooner or later.
However when we discount the spread 1 pip and remain 4 pip profit at net still might be positive compare to the negative loosers one that happens %2 of the time. As there is an exit. Not calculated but im sure its slightly profitable.
Now, Think that your probability of getting car accident. If you take every car in the world , Then yes you will get that probability very easly.
But we pick random cars. So chances are getting decreased ? I dont know.
"Bayes Theoram says if an event has already happened, it will not effect the next event" Now lets give 1 coin to 8 Billion people.
And lets make them throw it. What are the odds to get 8 Billion heads same at the same time at first try?
Well. Its sounds pretty unrealistic.
But take 2 guys and make them throw the coin. You will see they can get 2 heads very quickly.
But it sounds very imaginery when we increase the number... There is just no difference with 2 heads and 8billion heads at once...
If there was flights one each another and i take every of them. I will get the failure and crash. Those stats of plane failure are depend on the past.
The reality that is . How experienced is the pilot, what was the weather. What is the probability of getting hit by birds at air so on.
As you know the odds being in plane crash are very very low.. Because we are not taking every flight in the world. Else case i think our chances would increased to be in the one
..
How many times that plane got an issue at air? Was there any accident on the same plane road?
Thoose are all the questions. None of them guarantee the future. They just give the sense.
Anyway. I dont know if this proven. But that is one of the reasons , I will not take everything i see. We can see call some trades and respect it like 100 different box. Take it on random times. With X filter. So your chances to hit that %2 will decrease.
But still you can pick valid paper out of 99 box. and at 100th you can hit the failure paper.
If you do that 1000 time and see how many times you have survived those 100 boxes without getting the failure paper. That is your real probability.
However, %50 - 50 WE fail on next or not hehe
PS.Few days ago i seen on the news. The guy dead while walking with a fallen window glass from 15th floor. While walking. Lady near him survived with 0 damage at 50cm distance..
Imagine there is 1 box with 100 papers. Inside of this 1 box there is 2 papers written FAIL.
If you keep picking from that box. Sooner or later you will find those failures.
Now imagine you have 100 different boxes.
You can keep taking 1 paper from each.. So at the end you can still picked 100 papers and none of them are failure ones.
So thats why if we keep taking every signal we will sooner or later fail. That is my reason to stay away from EA' They will fail sooner or later.
However when we discount the spread 1 pip and remain 4 pip profit at net still might be positive compare to the negative loosers one that happens %2 of the time. As there is an exit. Not calculated but im sure its slightly profitable.
Now, Think that your probability of getting car accident. If you take every car in the world , Then yes you will get that probability very easly.
But we pick random cars. So chances are getting decreased ? I dont know.
"Bayes Theoram says if an event has already happened, it will not effect the next event" Now lets give 1 coin to 8 Billion people.
And lets make them throw it. What are the odds to get 8 Billion heads same at the same time at first try?
Well. Its sounds pretty unrealistic.
But take 2 guys and make them throw the coin. You will see they can get 2 heads very quickly.
But it sounds very imaginery when we increase the number... There is just no difference with 2 heads and 8billion heads at once...
If there was flights one each another and i take every of them. I will get the failure and crash. Those stats of plane failure are depend on the past.
The reality that is . How experienced is the pilot, what was the weather. What is the probability of getting hit by birds at air so on.
As you know the odds being in plane crash are very very low.. Because we are not taking every flight in the world. Else case i think our chances would increased to be in the one
..How many times that plane got an issue at air? Was there any accident on the same plane road?
Thoose are all the questions. None of them guarantee the future. They just give the sense.
Anyway. I dont know if this proven. But that is one of the reasons , I will not take everything i see. We can see call some trades and respect it like 100 different box. Take it on random times. With X filter. So your chances to hit that %2 will decrease.
But still you can pick valid paper out of 99 box. and at 100th you can hit the failure paper.
If you do that 1000 time and see how many times you have survived those 100 boxes without getting the failure paper. That is your real probability.
However, %50 - 50 WE fail on next or not
hehePS.Few days ago i seen on the news. The guy dead while walking with a fallen window glass from 15th floor. While walking. Lady near him survived with 0 damage at 50cm distance..
Take it easy.
