Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets | Page 153 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Software tools for LauraT's Roadmap 169 replies

Forex Brokerage Roadmap 4 replies

Best way to read all of someone's posts? 3 replies

Simple way to read chart 11 replies

Attachments: Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets
Exit Attachments

Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #3,041
  • Sep 12, 2020 9:25am Sep 12, 2020 9:25am
Quoting L1ghtning
Took a loss on my second demo trade, USD CHF M5 I saw the market bounce off the Daily open line, retreat under SMA and had bearish momentum with bars closing under the channel, MTF all bearish and RSI bearish. Shorted on test of the upper channel. Stop loss was placed at the SMA200. The trade did go +10 pips, but I didn't close it as I interpreted bearish momentum still. Maybe my greed kicked in. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated, thanks. {image} {image}
Hi,

Entry looks good, but I feel like sharing what the situation looked like from my point of view.
This helps me learn and maybe can help you in the process. We can all learn from eachother

Try placing your short SL in area's above Resistance/DailyOpen/Swing high etc. I get punished when placing the SL around the 200sma. It looks like I'm not the only one. This change in SL placement helped me. Maybe it can help you too

Good Luck!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Roadmap entry Lightning1.png Size: 69 KB
  • #3,042
  • Edited 5:19pm Sep 12, 2020 12:46pm | Edited 5:19pm
Hi Laura, I want to start by saying that i found your roadmap at the best time possible! I have been investing all of my time the past 8 months into FX and I was just never confident enough to go live,something was missing. So Im really really grateful to you for sharing this with us,it has helped me a lot and i believe i wouldnt stand a chance in the market had i not stumbled on this thread.

This is a trade i took yesterday on demo, Sadly my TP didnt trigger and i wasnt looking so had to manually close at worse price ^^. Would like to hear your thoughts on the setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 132 KB

I would also like to hear your opinion on adding a 200EMA on top of the 200SMA. I noticed that when these 2 moving averages create some distance between each other, IF price is trading between them it tends to range. So it looks to me like a good way to filter out some low probability trades. You can see it on the previous image i shared but ill add one more
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 171 KB
What you seek is seeking you. -Rumi
  • #3,043
  • Sep 13, 2020 10:22am Sep 13, 2020 10:22am
Quoting firewir3
{quote} Thank you for your reply Laura. I just started to test this strategy on demo hopefully Laura can give me some comment on my trade.Thanks First trade close with 3R profit {image} Second trade I cut loss at 0.5R {image}
Apologies - just seen this post. Perhaps it was delayed due to post moderation.

You are selling into bullish momentum and buying into bearish momentum. Your first trade had a good result but the entry was probably slightly too early.

I'm going to do a journal entry on this subject today hopefully, so please check back and hopefully it will all make sense
  • #3,044
  • Sep 13, 2020 10:25am Sep 13, 2020 10:25am
Quoting L1ghtning
Took a loss on my second demo trade, USD CHF M5 I saw the market bounce off the Daily open line, retreat under SMA and had bearish momentum with bars closing under the channel, MTF all bearish and RSI bearish. Shorted on test of the upper channel. Stop loss was placed at the SMA200. The trade did go +10 pips, but I didn't close it as I interpreted bearish momentum still. Maybe my greed kicked in. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated, thanks. {image} {image}
Apologies - just seen your post. Perhaps it was delayed due to post moderation.

Your entry was good actually. The only thing I'd say is that I don't see a valid exit. Was your stop loss too close? If I was short that market, I'd have stayed short unless daily open was broken.
  • #3,045
  • Sep 13, 2020 10:29am Sep 13, 2020 10:29am
Quoting KPTrading
{quote} Hi, Take a look at the attached picture. I would like to share a thought regarding your SL placement. When I first came across this method, I was also placing aggressive SL points but found that over a basket of trades it did me no good. Especially with indices. I am curious to know where LauraT is placing her SL positions for her scalping trades. On the picture I attached, you will see 2 other areas you could have placed your stop. Always easy to see in hindsight, but I found that placing them above recent swing high/swing lows worked out...
You are right. The stop loss was placed too close to the action.

I'd have placed my stop somewhere between where you marked the two points.

Bear in mind though, my stop loss is rarely hit. It's placed initially as an emergency stop (in case of an unforeseen urgency). Trades should be actively managed and we should exit when we are proven wrong. In this case, the channel getting fully above SMA would have proved us wrong.
  • #3,046
  • Sep 13, 2020 10:34am Sep 13, 2020 10:34am
Quoting leo94
Hi Laura, I want to start by saying that i found your roadmap at the best time possible! I have been investing all of my time the past 8 months into FX and I was just never confident enough to go live,something was missing. So Im really really grateful to you for sharing this with us,it has helped me a lot and i believe i wouldnt stand a chance in the market had i not stumbled on this thread. This is a trade i took yesterday on demo, Sadly my TP didnt trigger and i wasnt looking so had to manually close at worse price ^^. Would like to hear your...
Hi - welcome to the thread

In terms of the 200EMA, I haven't found any correlation between ranging markets and separation. In fact, in your first chart they separated while there was an accelerating down trend.

In terms of your trade, it's fine (and it worked out fine) but it's quite advanced for someone just getting to grips with the strategy. Much safer to stick with the bias initially.
  • #3,047
  • Sep 13, 2020 11:27am Sep 13, 2020 11:27am
Fighting Momentum (Don't Do It).

I've mentioned to various people who have posted charts that they are fighting against momentum. I'm never quite sure if I'm explaining WHY well enough, or if I'm explaining how to avoid the trap.

I've just added a new journal entry that, hopefully, will go some way to clarifying.

You can read it at: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...just-a-journal

Please keep all comments and questions in this thread as the journal isn't a place for discussion.

Thanks
  • #3,048
  • Sep 13, 2020 12:43pm Sep 13, 2020 12:43pm
Quoting LauraT
Fighting Momentum (Don't Do It). I've mentioned to various people who have posted charts that they are fighting against momentum. I'm never quite sure if I'm explaining WHY well enough, or if I'm explaining how to avoid the trap. I've just added a new journal entry that, hopefully, will go some way to clarifying. You can read it at: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...just-a-journal Please keep all comments and questions in this thread as the journal isn't a place for discussion. Thanks
Thanks for your new post "Fighting Momentum (Don't do it)".

now, I use hanover's roadmap scanner, https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=994835

This scanner marks pairs near SMA200.

After the confirmation of channel cross or channel failure, a pair would be near SMA200 and marked by the scanner.

Should I manually check pairs one by one and each time frame by each time frame?

or is there a better way?
  • #3,049
  • Sep 13, 2020 1:03pm Sep 13, 2020 1:03pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi - welcome to the thread In terms of the 200EMA, I haven't found any correlation between ranging markets and separation. In fact, in your first chart they separated while there was an accelerating down trend. In terms of your trade, it's fine (and it worked out fine) but it's quite advanced for someone just getting to grips with the strategy. Much safer to stick with the bias initially.

Thanks for replying, about the 200EMA yeah it seems i was trying too hard to see something that wasnt there to begin with.

Ill keep using this strategy and trying to improve with it. (Cant promise not taking advanced setups though haha) Will try my best to contribute here as much as i can as well.
What you seek is seeking you. -Rumi
  • #3,050
  • Sep 13, 2020 2:41pm Sep 13, 2020 2:41pm
Quoting dbsdsun
{quote} Thanks for your new post "Fighting Momentum (Don't do it)". now, I use hanover's roadmap scanner, https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=994835 This scanner marks pairs near SMA200. After the confirmation of channel cross or channel failure, a pair would be near SMA200 and marked by the scanner. Should I manually check pairs one by one and each time frame by each time frame? or is there a better way?
Hi

No, using the scanner is fine. As long as you are checking where the momentum is before entering.
  • #3,051
  • Sep 13, 2020 2:49pm Sep 13, 2020 2:49pm
Quoting leo94
{quote} Thanks for replying, about the 200EMA yeah it seems i was trying too hard to see something that wasnt there to begin with. Ill keep using this strategy and trying to improve with it. (Cant promise not taking advanced setups though haha) Will try my best to contribute here as much as i can as well.
Jumping into a trade before a signal forms is probably something we all do from time to time

It seems most of us need need to be burned to a crisp before we stop putting our hands in the fire haha.

Have you read/watched any material from Mark Douglas?
My hands are not as hot anymore after being inspired by him
  • #3,052
  • Sep 13, 2020 2:59pm Sep 13, 2020 2:59pm
Quoting KPTrading
{quote} Jumping into a trade before a signal forms is probably something we all do from time to time It seems most of us need need to be burned to a crisp before we stop putting our hands in the fire haha. Have you read/watched any material from Mark Douglas? My hands are not as hot anymore after being inspired by him
Havent read any of his books yet, but did watch his videos on trading psychology. Ill try to make it a habit, watching them every other week/month so i dont get carried away.
What you seek is seeking you. -Rumi
  • #3,053
  • Sep 13, 2020 10:18pm Sep 13, 2020 10:18pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Apologies - just seen your post. Perhaps it was delayed due to post moderation. Your entry was good actually. The only thing I'd say is that I don't see a valid exit. Was your stop loss too close? If I was short that market, I'd have stayed short unless daily open was broken.
No apology , Yeap its dues to my member status and the post has been delayed, I had been lurking around here few years but I just found that this strat is interesting enough to start posting here.

and thank you so much Laura for generously sharing your knowledge and updated a journal post on how not to "Fighting Momentum (Don't do it)"

Will keep on trying and have a nice day Laura
  • #3,054
  • Sep 14, 2020 2:02am Sep 14, 2020 2:02am
Attached Image

"What do you notice about the two shaded areas?

Bars are closing BELOW the channel and not above it. That right there is confirmation that the momentum is bearish and we can go ahead and enter.

And the bars between the two shaded areas?

They are printing mainly ABOVE the channel. Momentum is bullish.

By waiting for the momentum to turn bearish again, we can enter with a higher degree of certainty that we're choosing the right direction, as momentum is on our side. Furthermore, we now know that, in our short trade, a bar printing ABOVE the channel is a sign all is not well and we should probably bail out."
Attached Image

Laura , sorry I'm not sure am I asking the wrong question hopefully you can correct as I'm confused me as you mentioned "in our short trade, a bar printing ABOVE the channel is a sign all is not well and we should probably bail out" as the chart you share above we should look for entry for short when a pullback above the channel for entry right ? or mean that we should look for a good bearish momentum like the chart you show above with bar keep printing below the channel and look for entry when price retrace inside the channel?
  • #3,055
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:09am Sep 14, 2020 3:09am
Quoting KPTrading
{quote} Hi, Take a look at the attached picture. I would like to share a thought regarding your SL placement. When I first came across this method, I was also placing aggressive SL points but found that over a basket of trades it did me no good. Especially with indices. I am curious to know where LauraT is placing her SL positions for her scalping trades. On the picture I attached, you will see 2 other areas you could have placed your stop. Always easy to see in hindsight, but I found that placing them above recent swing high/swing lows worked out...
Thanks for your suggestions
I will check it because maybe my SL strategy is wrong.

but I started lowering the SL to limit losses if I was wrong
  • #3,056
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:42am Sep 14, 2020 3:42am
It really is a good idea for newer traders to manually check higher timeframes rather than just look an an indicator, its really easy to do and a very good habit to get into. You need to check if there is any strong levels you may be near or on top off which wont be clear on 5 minute time frame, not just the 200 ma!
  • #3,057
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:46am Sep 14, 2020 3:46am
Quoting piotrekk2000
{quote} Thanks for your suggestions I will check it because maybe my SL strategy is wrong. but I started lowering the SL to limit losses if I was wrong
If you are bringing your SL closer to your entry to limit your losses, then you are not managing your risk.
As an example, if you decide to risk 1% of your Balance/Equity on a trade, then your Lot size/Position size has to be adjusted based on your chosen area for a SL.

You seem to be working with a fixed lot size, which means that the further your SL is from your entry, the more money you lose. This can be a troublesome way to manage your risk.

Before you enter a trade, choose a spot on the chart that would tell you the trade is no longer valid.
Now that you have chosen a position on the chart to place your SL, you can now adjust your lot size so that IF price reaches your SL, you will lose 1%.
So it does not matter if your SL is 10pips or 50 pips away from your entry.

With this approach you can place your SL anywhere and never lose more than your chosen risk for that trade. You will no longer suffer a major loss because your SL is far from your entry. If you don't know how to calculate this, there are many trading tools out there that will do this calculation for you.

Feel free to message me if you want some help with this
  • #3,058
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:55am Sep 14, 2020 3:55am
Quoting firewir3
{image} "What do you notice about the two shaded areas? Bars are closing BELOW the channel and not above it. That right there is confirmation that the momentum is bearish and we can go ahead and enter. And the bars between the two shaded areas? They are printing mainly ABOVE the channel. Momentum is bullish. By waiting for the momentum to turn bearish again, we can enter with a higher degree of certainty that we're choosing the right direction, as momentum is on our side. Furthermore, we now know that, in our short trade, a bar printing ABOVE the...
Hi

The preference, for newer traders especially, would be that they enter short when bars are mainly closing below the channel. Entry could be on a retrace inside the channel, yes. But it's also fine to enter below the channel if you want to get in on a strong trend.

Hope this helps clarify.
  • #3,059
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:58am Sep 14, 2020 3:58am
Quoting firewir3
{image} "What do you notice about the two shaded areas? Bars are closing BELOW the channel and not above it. That right there is confirmation that the momentum is bearish and we can go ahead and enter. And the bars between the two shaded areas? They are printing mainly ABOVE the channel. Momentum is bullish. By waiting for the momentum to turn bearish again, we can enter with a higher degree of certainty that we're choosing the right direction, as momentum is on our side. Furthermore, we now know that, in our short trade, a bar printing ABOVE the...
Draw in a trend line and you will answer your own question. ( It slopes down)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,060
  • Sep 14, 2020 4:28am Sep 14, 2020 4:28am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi The preference, for newer traders especially, would be that they enter short when bars are mainly closing below the channel. Entry could be on a retrace inside the channel, yes. But it's also fine to enter below the channel if you want to get in on a strong trend. Hope this helps clarify.
Thanks Laura , Im clear now.
4 traders viewing now