where will the EURUSD be on Jan1? | Forex Factory

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where will the EURUSD be on Jan1?

  • Poll

  • where will the EURUSD be on Jan1?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 31, 2006 4:17pm Oct 31, 2006 4:17pm
lets see if the masses have and predictive/counter-predictive value
Relax and be happy.
  • #2
  • Oct 31, 2006 4:31pm Oct 31, 2006 4:31pm
You forgot the "I don't care" option.
  • #3
  • Oct 31, 2006 4:50pm Oct 31, 2006 4:50pm
Quoting twinchell
You forgot the "I don't care" option.
So what do you trade that is not influenced by either of the pair?

Let me know and we can make millllllllions. LOL :

I had better get some sleep this all night stuff makes me manic.
Timing is everything
  • #4
  • Oct 31, 2006 4:53pm Oct 31, 2006 4:53pm
It will be at home, in bed, recovering from the New Year's eve party.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #5
  • Oct 31, 2006 11:16pm Oct 31, 2006 11:16pm
I think it's going above 1.3000, but what do I know?
How you act is more important than how you feel.
  • #6
  • Oct 31, 2006 11:34pm Oct 31, 2006 11:34pm
I think It will be above 1.3000, because by then Fed will be signalling lower rates near-term.
Forex is not easy!
  • #7
  • Nov 1, 2006 6:16am Nov 1, 2006 6:16am
Quoting Gull
So what do you trade that is not influenced by either of the pair?

Let me know and we can make millllllllions. LOL :

I had better get some sleep this all night stuff makes me manic.
My point it one should not care where a pair is in two months. If you are a good trader you will make money if the euro is at 1.3, 1.28, or 1.9 in two months. Sure, it would be nice to know where it will be, but I think only a wizard could know that. Right Merlin?
  • #8
  • Nov 1, 2006 10:53am Nov 1, 2006 10:53am
I put 1.26-1.3

But if there is a rate reduction, then the price will go above 1.3, which is what is assumed to be in the first quater of 07'.
  • #9
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:18am Nov 2, 2006 10:18am
monthly chart? checkout the monthly its relatively consolidating
since 2006/05
  • #10
  • Nov 3, 2006 12:56am Nov 3, 2006 12:56am
Hahaha ! I like that one !

Quoting diallist
It will be at home, in bed, recovering from the New Year's eve party.
  • #11
  • Nov 3, 2006 1:15am Nov 3, 2006 1:15am
I believe between 1.2600 and 1.3000.

Don't quote me on any conspiracy theories but I believe that that China is regularly intervening to keep the dollar up. Also, the European Community members Central Banks are in there too (keeping the dollar up and the Euro down).

Both sets of players do NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.
Both are comfortable with the 1.2500 to 1.3000 range

China has a HUGE war-chest of capital that they can use. Last figure quoted was that US has accumulated foreign debt to China of
USD$848 Billion... and rising.

I think that breaking 1.3000 will be VERY difficult...it depends on whether China wants to be "seen" to be manipulating the currency to keep the dollar up
  • #12
  • Nov 3, 2006 2:20am Nov 3, 2006 2:20am
Just watch November and December. USD will drive the EUR/USD below 1.2600; and supposidly below 1.2500. 2 cents.
  • #13
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:08am Nov 3, 2006 4:08am
Quoting jacko
I believe between 1.2600 and 1.3000.

Don't quote me on any conspiracy theories but I believe that that China is regularly intervening to keep the dollar up. Also, the European Community members Central Banks are in there too (keeping the dollar up and the Euro down).

Both sets of players do NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.
Both are comfortable with the 1.2500 to 1.3000 range

China has a HUGE war-chest of capital that they can use. Last figure quoted was that US has accumulated foreign debt to China of
USD$848 Billion... and rising.

I think that breaking 1.3000 will be VERY difficult...it depends on whether China wants to be "seen" to be manipulating the currency to keep the dollar up
I cannot see ONE reason for strength in the US Dollar:

1. Europe, Britain and Japan have effectively told the world that they will have more interest rate rises than the US ...and the rises will be bigger....

2. The Pound is now much stronger on higher interest rates... the same will happen with the Euro and Yen in the near future

3. The Arabs/ Swedes/Russians etc etc are still continuing to heavily buy other currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound) to spread their Reserve Bank portfolios in preference to US dollars. (If China stops buying US bonds, these portfolios will explode in value as the USD drops)

4. The enormous US deficit will not disappear. China effectively told ole George W to get stuffed and that they would not change their currency peg. (Read: China will continue to flood the market with cheap goods and slowly strangle US businesses). The trade inbalance is heading towards a Trillion dollars (thats US $1000 Billion) in China's favour and has been getting significantly higher each month

5. After the fall of the communist regimes, Europe is now finally getting its act together

6. The Iraqi war is another Vietnam and will continue to suck money.

All of the above would, and should, result in a fall in the US Dollar.

EXCEPT for this one:

The most significant reason that it hasn't fallen dramatically is the ongoing "manipulation" of the USD by China, which does NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 and the Yen under 100.00 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.

The US Administration is continually haranguing Beijing to let their currency "float" but the Chinese just smile (as they know very well that they are quickly strangling all US manufacturing industries to death).

The question arises: what can the US administration do about this? Absolutely nothing!!!
  • #14
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:52am Nov 3, 2006 4:52am
Euro can pass 1.30, but can't stay there for long time. Above 1.30 EUR does not offer real value.
I voted for 1.26-1.30
  • #15
  • Nov 5, 2006 8:50pm Nov 5, 2006 8:50pm
Quoting jacko
I cannot see ONE reason for strength in the US Dollar:

1. Europe, Britain and Japan have effectively told the world that they will have more interest rate rises than the US ...and the rises will be bigger....

2. The Pound is now much stronger on higher interest rates... the same will happen with the Euro and Yen in the near future

3. The Arabs/ Swedes/Russians etc etc are still continuing to heavily buy other currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound) to spread their Reserve Bank portfolios in preference to US dollars. (If China stops buying US bonds, these portfolios will explode in value as the USD drops)

4. The enormous US deficit will not disappear. China effectively told ole George W to get stuffed and that they would not change their currency peg. (Read: China will continue to flood the market with cheap goods and slowly strangle US businesses). The trade inbalance is heading towards a Trillion dollars (thats US $1000 Billion) in China's favour and has been getting significantly higher each month

5. After the fall of the communist regimes, Europe is now finally getting its act together

6. The Iraqi war is another Vietnam and will continue to suck money.

All of the above would, and should, result in a fall in the US Dollar.

EXCEPT for this one:

The most significant reason that it hasn't fallen dramatically is the ongoing "manipulation" of the USD by China, which does NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 and the Yen under 100.00 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.

The US Administration is continually haranguing Beijing to let their currency "float" but the Chinese just smile (as they know very well that they are quickly strangling all US manufacturing industries to death).

The question arises: what can the US administration do about this? Absolutely nothing!!!
Jacko,

I have just been reading your all your posts. You seem very intelligent. You also appear to be a trader of large volumes. In one of your posts here you said that you usually trade 100 to 120 lots of Euro deals at a time
Are you the same Jacko from dailyFX ? He was a very successful trader who just disappeared from the scene after ripping out a huge amount of money from Forex trading live online in a thread there.
Can you contact me to help me in my trading?

newbietrader101
  • #16
  • Nov 6, 2006 3:40am Nov 6, 2006 3:40am
Quoting newbietrader101
Jacko,

I have just been reading your all your posts. You seem very intelligent. You also appear to be a trader of large volumes. In one of your posts here you said that you usually trade 100 to 120 lots of Euro deals at a time
Are you the same Jacko from dailyFX ? He was a very successful trader who just disappeared from the scene after ripping out a huge amount of money from Forex trading live online in a thread there.
Can you contact me to help me in my trading?

newbietrader101
Hi newbietrader101,

Thank you for your kind words. I don't know about being intelligent...just more experienced in trading than most here, which is a function of age...I am OLD !!

In regards to dailyfx, I was trading live-time there and was very successful but then there were a lot of aggressive and rude newbies that came into the forum...so rather than have aggro in my life, I simply left.

I would prefer to have any discussions with anyone from this forum held on this forum, but if you have something personal you want to ask then my email address is in my profile.
  • #17
  • Nov 6, 2006 10:17am Nov 6, 2006 10:17am
I voted "Haven't got a clue", due in part by the 500ish pip range bound market the E/U seems to be playing around for the last 6 months. Unless something big happens in one of the economies before New Years Day i think Dial has the right idea. . . I'll be snuggling with my wife all bundled up nice and dry inside on a blustery wet day on Oregon's coast : )
  • #18
  • Nov 7, 2006 4:36am Nov 7, 2006 4:36am
i also voted 126-130,...If 1.3 is broken,..it can easily become support,...and that nobody wants,...especially countries/cuurencies that are some how connected or liable to usd,...
its just money
  • #19
  • Nov 8, 2006 1:07am Nov 8, 2006 1:07am
Quoting jacko
I believe between 1.2600 and 1.3000.

Don't quote me on any conspiracy theories but I believe that that China is regularly intervening to keep the dollar up. Also, the European Community members Central Banks are in there too (keeping the dollar up and the Euro down).

Both sets of players do NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.
Both are comfortable with the 1.2500 to 1.3000 range

China has a HUGE war-chest of capital that they can use. Last figure quoted was that US has accumulated foreign debt to China of
USD$848 Billion... and rising.

I think that breaking 1.3000 will be VERY difficult...it depends on whether China wants to be "seen" to be manipulating the currency to keep the dollar up
Some interesting figures just came across the news in the last couple of days:

Quote
Quoted from AFP News
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">China</st1lace></st1:country-region> will announce any day now that its forex reserves have shot past US$1 trillion...

...The nation's forex holdings reached US$987.9 billion at the end of September and have been expanding at a rate of US$18.8 billion a month this year. At the end of 2000, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">China</st1lace></st1:country-region>'s forex reserves stood at only US$165.6 billion.

...Experts worry that <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> could suffer huge losses if the dollar depreciates or <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">U.S.</st1lace></st1:country-region> treasury yields fall, as the dollar-denominated assets are by far the largest portion of the reserve portfolio.

This is the main reason that China is holding up the USD.
Interestingly, most other countries are diversifying into Euro, Yen and Pound because they know that when China eventually decides that it has had enough of buying USD, the USD will drop and the other currencies will explode in value. That is why all the other Central Banks have been diversifying so much recently.

Unless China is prepared to take a serious loss on their $1 Trillion of foreign reserves, I think that breaking 1.3000 will be VERY difficult.
  • #20
  • Nov 8, 2006 2:33am Nov 8, 2006 2:33am
not sure about the eurusd, but i am hoping the usd will be in my back pocket by the bucket load.

Another quick point i had to laugh my socks of last night listening to bloomberg some economist was being interviewed and he quoted almost word for word the speech bernanke gave to the washington economics club a few weeks ago.

second if thursdays jobless figures come out anywhere close to 310k then there will be a serious revision of the next nfp, not that it helped bushy

last and final point regarding the nfp the jobless figure last month 4.4% does anyone know what the actuall figure in 1000's or what it is 4.4% of?
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