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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,781
  • Sep 8, 2020 7:47am Sep 8, 2020 7:47am
GBPUSD, I'm watching this H1 candle. if it closes bullish like this (15 min to go), it can provide a long setup. It's not super reliable (55% win rate), but with a RRR 3:1 or 4:1 it may worth a shot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H1 98.PNG Size: 129 KB
  • #7,782
  • Sep 8, 2020 7:48am Sep 8, 2020 7:48am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} for today, I'm gonna scalp long GU as long as it stays above 1.30
shahab8b, it might be a tough day to trade to the upside but it all depends on an objective ...you know your game...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.08.30M.png Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.08.daily.png Size: 87 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,783
  • Sep 8, 2020 7:54am Sep 8, 2020 7:54am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, it might be a tough day to trade to the upside but it all depends on an objective ...you know your game... {image} {image}
Coreg, do you have a crystal ball? how did you know it would be a very sharp zigzag to 1.30 without any retracement?
  • #7,784
  • Sep 8, 2020 7:55am Sep 8, 2020 7:55am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, I'm watching this H1 candle. if it closes bullish like this (15 min to go), it can provide a long setup. It's not super reliable (55% win rate), but with a RRR 3:1 or 4:1 it may worth a shot. {image}
That H1 candle does not look bullish atm, that's why we should wait for the candle close.
  • #7,785
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:05am Sep 8, 2020 8:05am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, looking for a close above 0.92 to confirm the reversal. {image}
USDCHF,
You watch trading guru's on youtube explainng the charts after the fact. On live trading, a situation like this, makes you question your trade and if you should hold your trade or flip it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 9820201.png Size: 31 KB
  • #7,786
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:26am Sep 8, 2020 8:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Coreg, do you have a crystal ball? how did you know it would be a very sharp zigzag to 1.30 without any retracement?
shahab8b, no just lucky guess...you know that after W-3 we can have 3 patterns to play with, I just chose this time right one...You also know that Elliottician is never wrong... if this pattern doesn't work let check another......
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,787
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:32am Sep 8, 2020 8:32am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Nice going Roszey! yea staying above 1.3 should provide enough S for today.
Yeah.. 1.30 is the previous neckline.. Might break but have my limit orders there
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,788
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:36am Sep 8, 2020 8:36am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, no just lucky guess...you know that after W-3 we can have 3 patterns to play with, I just chose this time right one...You also know that Elliottician is never wrong... if this pattern doesn't work let check another......
haha, no you are humble Coreg. One cannot be lucky 99.9% of the time.
  • #7,789
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:44am Sep 8, 2020 8:44am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the great chart. I actually have a wave 4 count for that triangle, but I am also suspicious of it as being a B wave in a corrective formation that might surprise everyone (i.e. a deeper wave 4). {image}
Gold

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  • #7,790
  • Sep 8, 2020 8:49am Sep 8, 2020 8:49am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF and EURUSD. USDCHF ending diagonal pattern is a bit ahead of EU. I suspect EU might follow the same path. {image}
EURUSD, short trade, I'll have more confidence in this trade if it can break below the S zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 980.png Size: 31 KB
  • #7,791
  • Sep 8, 2020 9:06am Sep 8, 2020 9:06am
GU, watching this M15, 1.30 S sitting just below, you know when are definitely wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUm15 u.PNG Size: 82 KB
  • #7,792
  • Sep 8, 2020 9:56am Sep 8, 2020 9:56am
2 scenarios in front of me.....the question is which one??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 93 KB
or
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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5min waiting for confirmaton trend change..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Lost....
  • #7,793
  • Sep 8, 2020 10:42am Sep 8, 2020 10:42am
Quoting gespiri
2 scenarios in front of me.....the question is which one?? {image}or {image}5min waiting for confirmaton trend change.. {image}
I like the first one better (a leg up (b) then down (c) again, but not to overlap with wave 1 (1.28). We need to be patient.

This can be wrong though. I have not been correct on the corrective wave structure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU EW3.PNG Size: 114 KB
  • #7,794
  • Sep 8, 2020 11:20am Sep 8, 2020 11:20am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, You watch trading guru's on youtube explainng the charts after the fact. On live trading, a situation like this, makes you question your trade and if you should hold your trade or flip it? {image}
USDCHF, you can never be 100% certain, no matter how many years you have done this. But as long as you go based on the probabilities and keep RRR>1, you can make it. USDCHF was rejected @ 0.92 R, bearish H4 candle, and a wedge looking pattern. I decided to switch to short. and I can still be wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 984.png Size: 35 KB
  • #7,795
  • Sep 8, 2020 11:27am Sep 8, 2020 11:27am
3050 is really holding GU for now..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Sep 08 16-24-18.png Size: 66 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,796
  • Sep 8, 2020 11:41am Sep 8, 2020 11:41am
Quoting Roszey
3050 is really holding GU for now.. {image}
yea, it has to clear 1.3050
  • #7,797
  • Sep 8, 2020 11:49am Sep 8, 2020 11:49am
USDCAD, possible short setup @ 1.32
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 98.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #7,798
  • Sep 8, 2020 12:45pm Sep 8, 2020 12:45pm
GBPUSD, pending buy order @ 1.30, sl 20 pips, tp 1.3250
  • #7,799
  • Sep 8, 2020 2:30pm Sep 8, 2020 2:30pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, possible short setup @ 1.32 {image}
USDCAD, watching this H1 candle close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCA cnd.PNG Size: 55 KB
  • #7,800
  • Sep 8, 2020 4:31pm Sep 8, 2020 4:31pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, it might be a tough day to trade to the upside but it all depends on an objective ...you know your game... {image} {image}
Coreg, don't you think that wave c is too sharp for a zigzag? wave c is usually not as steep as wave a.
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