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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,741
  • Sep 4, 2020 12:10pm Sep 4, 2020 12:10pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, what can I say? complicated business (EW) ...On the daily chart, I am still not convinced that correction is over after shallow potential 4th because timing is way off...only 3 days down compering to W-2 13 days down... {image}
I know, I have a feeling it has another leg down. So I'm pondering between tp on the long and switch to short or just let it be. it's very unlikely to break above 1.3250-1.33 S zone today
  • #7,742
  • Sep 4, 2020 1:50pm Sep 4, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} haha, no, I went long GU @ 1.3185, so I don't want to lose on two bets today.
GBPUSD, long trade udpate, moved sl to (+50)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 943.png Size: 38 KB
  • #7,743
  • Sep 4, 2020 1:55pm Sep 4, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, levels I'm looking at for a possible short setup {image}
USDCAD, short trade update, moved sl to (+50), tp @ 1.30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 94 3.png Size: 37 KB
  • #7,744
  • Edited 6:01pm Sep 4, 2020 2:04pm | Edited 6:01pm
It's been a good day. I had a pending order @ 273 on QQQ that got filled. I think it's going to be an abc correction though. the next order @ 255
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: QQQ y.PNG Size: 54 KB
  • #7,745
  • Sep 4, 2020 2:09pm Sep 4, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I know, I have a feeling it has another leg down. So I'm pondering between tp on the long and switch to short or just let it be. it's very unlikely to break above 1.3250-1.33 S zone today
shahab8b, sorry for the lack of response...My NT platform doesn't work I am with tech support (didn't trade indices today)...Thanks for Oanda. Have a nice weekend all.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,746
  • Sep 4, 2020 2:11pm Sep 4, 2020 2:11pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, sorry for the lack of response...My NT platform doesn't work I am with tech support (didn't trade indices today)...Thanks for Oanda. Have a nice weekend all.
Don't worry about it. sorry about the tech problem. Have a nice weekend.
  • #7,747
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:03pm Sep 4, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} haha, no, I went long GU @ 1.3185, so I don't want to lose on two bets today.
GBPUSD, possible wave count
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 945.png Size: 42 KB
  • #7,748
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:17pm Sep 4, 2020 4:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, weekly chart. The bias remains bullish; however, I don't think it is going to be a smooth sailing from here to 1.35. But there is no telling where it might turn and the box is 200 pips wide so it's better to trade it day by day. for now bullish with solid S @ 1.3150. {image}
GBPUSD, the post from the last weekend about that box, and the weekly close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU wk829.PNG Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU wkl.PNG Size: 75 KB
  • #7,749
  • Edited 9:13am Sep 5, 2020 7:25am | Edited 9:13am
GBPUSD
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP long 6K vs 5k long last week. Longs increased by 1K
Daily chart remains bullish against structural supports @ 1.3050 and 1.30, and the rising TL. However, considering the strong rejection before 1.35 and bearish divergence and possible abc correction, it may correct lower after an initial up move (wave b)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU wk abc.PNG Size: 122 KB
  • #7,750
  • Sep 5, 2020 11:33am Sep 5, 2020 11:33am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I know and I wonder why?...they have 7 days lessons just pure theory nothing else... {image}
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} ................. {image}
shahab8b, what can I say? complicated business (EW) ...On the daily chart, I am still not convinced that correction is over after shallow potential 4th because timing is way off...only 3 days down compering to W-2 13 days down...

shahab8b, today's lesson(09.05) on www.elliottwave.com is absolutely critical to understand how Elliotticians think and operate...very valuable, I highly recommend to see it.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,751
  • Edited 8:34am Sep 6, 2020 8:12am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Quoting shahab8b {quote} ................. {image} shahab8b, what can I say? complicated business (EW) ...On the daily chart, I am still not convinced that correction is over after shallow potential 4th because timing is way off...only 3 days down compering to W-2 13 days down... shahab8b, today's lesson(09.05) on www.elliottwave.com is absolutely critical to understand how Elliotticians think and operate...very valuable, I...
Yea. It turned out my old account still works. The videos are good. Jeffrey Kennedy is a good instructor.
  • #7,752
  • Edited 12:03pm Sep 6, 2020 8:43am | Edited 12:03pm
EURUSD,
Daily chart got S from 1.18 S zone on Friday. Daily remains bullish above 1.1750-1.170. However, it looks like an ending diagonal pattern. I suspect it will break 1.17 at some point.
H1 chart shows a possible double bottom. A clear break above the neckline will open 1.1970-1.20 R zone.
Ideally, I'd like to look for a short setup if it gets to 1.1970-1.20.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 962020.PNG Size: 131 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU ed96.PNG Size: 131 KB
  • #7,753
  • Edited 7:31am Sep 7, 2020 7:15am | Edited 7:31am
GBPUSD broke the TLs, lets see whether it gets a bounce before challenging 1.3050-1.30 S zone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU97.PNG Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU h1e.PNG Size: 104 KB
  • #7,754
  • Sep 7, 2020 7:43am Sep 7, 2020 7:43am
Quoting shahab8b
EU, possible short scalp idea, it's not a bad setup for short scalp if it stays below that box, I'd close short trades if it breaks above the box though. A similar setup on GU {image}
EU short trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 97.png Size: 37 KB
  • #7,755
  • Edited 8:09am Sep 7, 2020 7:56am | Edited 8:09am
EURUSD, possible long setup for today. going above 1.1865 can form a double bottom, as mentioned before.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 97.PNG Size: 78 KB
  • #7,756
  • Sep 7, 2020 8:04am Sep 7, 2020 8:04am
USDCHF, looking for a close above 0.92 to confirm the reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,757
  • Sep 7, 2020 8:30am Sep 7, 2020 8:30am
GU, going long @ 1.3140, sl 20 pips, tp 1.34
  • #7,758
  • Sep 7, 2020 8:35am Sep 7, 2020 8:35am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, what can I say? complicated business (EW) ...On the daily chart, I am still not convinced that correction is over after shallow potential 4th because timing is way off...only 3 days down compering to W-2 13 days down... {image}
Update...let see what the coming days bring us...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.07.30M.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.07.daily.png Size: 86 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,759
  • Sep 7, 2020 9:34am Sep 7, 2020 9:34am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, going long @ 1.3140, sl 20 pips, tp 1.34
GBPUSD, long trade update, moved sl to b/e.
another reason for this long trade was price reaching 100% ADR, it usually gives you a decent 10-20 pips move that you can move your sl to b/e and let it run stress free.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 97202.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,760
  • Sep 7, 2020 9:45am Sep 7, 2020 9:45am
GU, small double bottom formed on M5/M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15 971.png Size: 30 KB
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