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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

Quoting MrAnta997
Laura and za1jcas, My apologies, didn't want to reply before I try out what was pointed out to me.. Here are my trades for today, they're still running, not good, but not horrible I'd say.. Far better then those few I did before, going against the momentum.. {quote} I didn't manage to find it yet, so these trendlines were drawn without 2 MAs filter.. Will try to find the post tonight, also, thanks for mentioning it, I'll reply to that post when I find so it doesn't get lost again.. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi

In your first chart (AU) can you spot why you were still trading against momentum despite drawing that trendline?

It's because the market was forming higher lows - so it was actually entering a consolidation (compression) phase, making it as likely to go up as down. I posted previously about market phases, worth a quick read. But for now you can just ask yourself when drawing a trendline "do I need to draw one on the flipside?" to avoid getting into a position during consolidation/compression.
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi In your first chart (AU) can you spot why you were still trading against momentum despite drawing that trendline? It's because the market was forming higher lows - so it was actually entering a consolidation (compression) phase, making it as likely to go up as down. I posted previously about market phases, worth a quick read. But for now you can just ask yourself when drawing a trendline "do I need to draw one on the flipside?" to avoid getting into a position during consolidation/compression.
Missed that.. Damn, I payed attention to it now and it's really consolidating (not questioning your words, just saying to myself that I made another rookie mistake) and I was focused on the catching the price on those small spikes up that I missed a big picture..
There's a saying in my country "Because of one tree, you didn't see a forest"

I closed the trade on usdjpy, price went over my manual SL area

Quoting LauraT
{quote} I posted previously about market phases, worth a quick read.
Jumping on to it, thank you!!

EDIT: Found it

Post about Market Phases :

Quoting LauraT
Basic Market Structure/Phases (Overview) As I haven't covered it yet, and I'm guilty of assuming people understand it, I want to issue a quick refresher course on very basic market structure. This really is just scratching the surface of different market phases but it will hopefully serve as helpful to someone. Phase 1 - Rotation (Ranging) This market phase could warrant a page of discussion all on its own but let's just very simply define what a market in rotation is doing. As per the chart example below, price action is choppy and is easily confined...
Quoting MrAnta997
Laura and za1jcas, My apologies, didn't want to reply before I try out what was pointed out to me.. Here are my trades for today, they're still running, not good, but not horrible I'd say.. Far better then those few I did before, going against the momentum.. {quote} I didn't manage to find it yet, so these trendlines were drawn without 2 MAs filter.. Will try to find the post tonight, also, thanks for mentioning it, I'll reply to that post when I find so it doesn't get lost again.. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I tried to find this post with MA indicator too, but I did not find it either... Can be that I made mistake and I mislead you for long fruitless search, sorry Probably I got this idea from Laura outside FF. I believe she will not mind if I share it again here. Also, to be precise this time, I will quote her.
"Some of you will have noticed I occasionally have blue and red lines on my chart. I've been trialling them as momentum indicators as I think they might help people avoid buying into bearish momentum or selling into bullish momentum... Please note this is entirely optional - you can use them alongside the channel or you can stick with the channel, your choice."
"You should attach 2 instances of the indicator. One should have settings: Exponential 5/8/13/4/2/1 and other should have settings: Exponential 13/21/34/4/2/1".\

Have nice day.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Ultimate_MA.mq4   6 KB | 311 downloads
Quoting MrAnta997
{quote} Missed that.. Damn, I payed attention to it now and it's really consolidating (not questioning your words, just saying to myself that I made another rookie mistake) and I was focused on the catching the price on those small spikes up that I missed a big picture.. There's a saying in my country "Because of one tree, you didn't see a forest" I closed the trade on usdjpy, price went over my manual SL area {quote} Jumping on to it, thank you!! EDIT: Found it Post about Market Phases : {quote}
another thing that might help (and not trying to add anything to Laura’s rules here), but just add a box around the consolidation phases you see (from high to low) - apart from the odd fake breakout that might catch you, it will probably help you not jump in, when something is potnetially reversing and ur looking to trade the opposite direction (see my grey boxes on my charts earlier).
Laura - pls feel free to delete if u think im trying to add anything to ur rules etc!
Quoting Jp1
{quote} another thing that might help (and not trying to add anything to Laura’s rules here), but just add a box around the consolidation phases you see (from high to low) - apart from the odd fake breakout that might catch you, it will probably help you not jump in, when something is potnetially reversing and ur looking to trade the opposite direction (see my grey boxes on my charts earlier). Laura - pls feel free to delete if u think im trying to add anything to ur rules etc!
Thanks for helping

I know it's only a small distinction but need to make it in case anyone gets confused.

Your grey boxes were showing market rotation (ranging) phases whereas Mr Anta seems to be having difficulty with compression phase. I do agree though, drawing a box (and trendlines) is a perfectly good way of patiently waiting for market to choose a direction when it's ranging. As you say, there are fakeouts to consider, but trendlines and the market structure information that roadmap elements give should steer you clear of most of those.
  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
Hi Laura and all, I am NOT new to this industry and but learning any new thing come up in the way. This is very interesting system. Any beginner can learn easily and start making pips (not money), if we make pips then we make money. Because Forex is not get rich quick industry, slow and steady wins the race.
Looking forward to participate from you all learn more..

thank you all
All things are difficult before they are easy.
morning - took a short after the cross of the 200 ema (prefer emas), where it had also moved under the weekly and daily opens. Got a target to just above last weeks low (100 pips). Need it stay below yesterday's low - so watching to see what it does here
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For Success in FX Trading you need 3 things to be right .

1. identify the trending pair for the day
2. Trading with a 2 Time Frame Trend in Your Favour
3. Time your entries for low sl , preferably try to enter in pullback as the sl will be very less then .

unless we get all the 3 right the FX market will you only LOSS. No point trading all those range bound markets etc you will be wasting your time and energy and not get any major profit for your hard work .

This system is very good in addressing point 2 and point 3 but with regard to point 1 we still have to get some fool proof method like this system . suggestions welcome . I am also searching . unless we get the point 1 right it is no big use having a great system.

MR market has to be in your favor that is the secret.
Joining in the action. Pretty much a carbon copy form yesterday. Gu GY, GBP pairs souring due to brexit back in focus,
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  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
Quoting unimak
For Success in FX Trading you need 3 things to be right . 1. identify the trending pair for the day 2. Trading with a 2 Time Frame Trend in Your Favour 3. Time your entries for low sl , preferably try to enter in pullback as the sl will be very less then . unless we get all the 3 right the FX market will you only LOSS. No point trading all those range bound markets etc you will be wasting your time and energy and not get any major profit for your hard work . This system is very good in addressing point 2 and point 3 but with regard to point 1 we...

Agreed Sir!
All things are difficult before they are easy.
  •  vrama
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: BE at right place@right time = LUCK | 210 Posts
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still making mistakes, some times.
Thanks Laura
All things are difficult before they are easy.
Quoting unimak
For Success in FX Trading you need 3 things to be right . 1. identify the trending pair for the day 2. Trading with a 2 Time Frame Trend in Your Favour 3. Time your entries for low sl , preferably try to enter in pullback as the sl will be very less then . unless we get all the 3 right the FX market will you only LOSS. No point trading all those range bound markets etc you will be wasting your time and energy and not get any major profit for your hard work . This system is very good in addressing point 2 and point 3 but with regard to point 1 we...
You have MTF RSI, I am using <40 for shorts, and >60 for longs, meaning this pair is in trend mode. Also MTF MAs should agree, also meaning we are trending in different timeframes. Besides that we use trendlines to go with major trend and smaller ones to avoid counter trend trades or tight ranges (consolidation/compression). I think it's enough for filtering out ranging condition Just my opinion, not sure if adding more stuff would make better. Unless maybe riding some fundamentals in your favor? But I know nothing about it.
Ouch!
Nasdaq M1
as per annotations

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then look what happened


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Lesson - I must learn to believe in my entry, allow plenty of wiggle room and hang in until I am proved wrong.
At least I think that is my lesson, please let me know if I have missed anything

All comments to help achieve these objectives very welcome

Should I be aware of any differences trading Indices vs Forex pairs?

Slightly off topic - there are better ways of annotation than just using the Text function of MT4. Any pointers to simple means of doing this would be appreciated

Best wishes to all
Quoting Jp1
morning - took a short after the cross of the 200 ema (prefer emas), where it had also moved under the weekly and daily opens. Got a target to just above last weeks low (100 pips). Need it stay below yesterday's low - so watching to see what it does here {image}
Didnt have long to wait on this one - 100pips tp hit.....good start to the day!
Quoting Pilulae
Ouch! Nasdaq M1 as per annotations {image} then look what happened {image} Lesson - I must learn to believe in my entry, allow plenty of wiggle room and hang in until I am proved wrong. At least I think that is my lesson, please let me know if I have missed anything All comments to help achieve these objectives very welcome Should I be aware of any differences trading Indices vs Forex pairs? Slightly off topic - there are better ways of annotation than just using the Text function of MT4. Any pointers to simple means of doing this would be appreciated...
ur entry looks pretty decent to me. It really only made a double top under the sma 200, so unless ur stop was moved to BE, i think what was suggested on this thread, was at a minimum, wait for price to tell you when you are wrong....it never crossed back above the 200 - so the trade was still valid.....and look at that drop!
Quoting za1jcas
{quote} You have MTF RSI, I am using <40 for shorts, and >60 for longs, meaning this pair is in trend mode. Also MTF MAs should agree, also meaning we are trending in different timeframes. Besides that we use trendlines to go with major trend and smaller ones to avoid counter trend trades or tight ranges (consolidation/compression). I think it's enough for filtering out ranging condition Just my opinion, not sure if adding more stuff would make better. Unless maybe riding some fundamentals in your favor? But I know nothing about it.
Good points.

Although I'm not precious about people sticking with the methodology as is, I'd also like to generally caution against trying to remove uncertainty from the equation.

When we sign up to aim to be a trader we must, from the very beginning, accept the inherent risk that exists within trading. The risk of losses - yes, but also the risk of not seeing a 'good' return on our time investment. The nature of trading is that we can make a wheelbarrow full of cash for 2 minutes work or we can spend all day at our screen and break even. We must accept that fact or we will forever be trying to remove the fear of uncertainty. The only cure for that fear is acceptance of risk.

When that fear exists, there can be a tendency to want to add more and more to the picture, hoping that it will somehow 'guarantee' success. Invariably it leads to information overload or analysis paralysis.

So be wary of that voice that tells us we need more stuff on our charts or we need to do more analysis or find a mathematical formula. They are all quite often signs we are struggling with the acceptance of risk.

I've given you all the framework for a way of trading that has provided me with a good lifestyle for many years. But there is no secret to finding the right opportunities at the right time here. We just have to trust that if we take enough of the right setups we will come out ahead in the long run.
When you know what to trade the results are outstanding 3 hrs from london open with 10 pip sl here are the results.
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Quoting Pilulae
Ouch! Nasdaq M1 as per annotations {image} then look what happened {image} Lesson - I must learn to believe in my entry, allow plenty of wiggle room and hang in until I am proved wrong. At least I think that is my lesson, please let me know if I have missed anything All comments to help achieve these objectives very welcome Should I be aware of any differences trading Indices vs Forex pairs? Slightly off topic - there are better ways of annotation than just using the Text function of MT4. Any pointers to simple means of doing this would be appreciated...
Hi

I think you were too hasty to get out. Do you have an idea of why? I accept it was a candle closing outwith the boundaries of the channel but the market structure was such that this shouldn't have been a red flag.

Try to be aware of what the market is doing in terms of highs and lows. In this case, it was to be expected that the market would aim to form a lower high before dropping further. As long as the previous high wasn't taken out, the downtrend was intact.

Hope this helps.
bit worried of selling into the daily/monthly opens and RSI being high but looking mainly at CHF strength against the ozzie at the moment - see how it goes
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Quoting Jp1
bit worried of selling into the daily/monthly opens and RSI being high but looking mainly at CHF strength against the ozzie at the moment - see how it goes {image}
CHF strength came through, took 19pips as my tp was just above the daily ADR low
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