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  • #2,861
  • Aug 28, 2020 10:36am Aug 28, 2020 10:36am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} on the first trade, u was at R1, why not set BE atleast? imho BE rather then a loss. ofc this is just my opinion..i advocate for actively managing the trades and react to whatever the market throws at me rather then set and forget. nontheless, tough week for most of the market aproaches, so to have finshed with a small loss or at BE it s what differentiates the pros from retail imho. stay green. cheers
Hi, trailing to BE does not guarantee improved results by default, you can make it worse. Best thing is to take 100 trade sample size (trading journal is really helpful here) and make research with both strategies, and objectively see which is better in the end. Also after setting to BE you don't get risk free trade, because you already risked before moving to BE and now you are risking giving back profit. There is Trader Dante's video about this BE and risk free stuff in youtube, highly recommending to watch.

I had hard week too. Yesterday made 2 losses, which were really unnecessary... I have rules (exit after false break of recent highs/lows; do not enter too far from SMA200) to avoid losses like this, which most of the time I follow So really got angry on myself analyzing these trades later. But yea, mistakes and losses will happen, need to learn and move on. I can share losing trades too.

EDIT: sorry made mistake on my 2nd screenshot, should have been "... price is too far from SMA 200".
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  • #2,862
  • Aug 28, 2020 10:43am Aug 28, 2020 10:43am
Quoting za1jcas
{quote} Hi, trailing to BE does not guarantee improved results by default, you can make it worse. Best thing is to take 100 trade sample size (trading journal is really helpful here) and make research with both strategies, and objectively see which is better in the end. Also after setting to BE you don't get risk free trade, because you already risked before moving to BE and now you are risking giving back profit. There is Trader Dante's video about this BE and risk free stuff in youtube, highly recommending to watch. I had hard week too. Yesterday...
dude, i honestly dunno what to make of ur post and the way u interpreted what i said. but see? that s the beauty of it, people are different, have different ways of thinking and thus seeing different things or percept..i can t and i simply won t battle with ur views or market aproach. i m sorry u had to endur those losses tho, happens to the best of us.
cheers
  • #2,863
  • Aug 28, 2020 11:59am Aug 28, 2020 11:59am
Wanted to chime in on the 'take some profit off the table' subject.

I've generally advised my trainees to take a half or a third of their size off at certain points and bank some profit. This isn't necessarily to maximise overall profit. It's mainly for psychological reasons, especially when a trader is getting used to a new way of trading. They can worry about how to maximise profit in due course but, certainly initially, there's a lot of psychological benefit in having taken some money off the table while still being able to profit further from an extended move.

Let's say a trader is 50 pips ahead and has 2 contracts in play. There can be a psychological advantage to taking profit on 1 contract. Price will either go up or down, so the trader will either end up giving back some profit or making even more. If the market continues to move in their favour, they might end up with 100 pips profit on the second contract. Giving an average of 75 pips profit in total (150/2). If the market moves against them, they exit when they are proven wrong.

And the proven wrong part is where I differ with those who advocate a breakeven stop on the remaining position. That can, I suppose, have some merit when you cannot actively manage your trade but, if you can actively manage it, breakeven becomes irrelevant as you'll close when the market proves you wrong.

So, there are two potential reasons for taking partial profit and they aren't the same. Either you're banking some profit for a technical reason or an emotional one. Both have merit, depending on circumstances.
  • #2,864
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:03pm Aug 28, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting Pilulae
Latest trade also a loss this morning EJ M5 I think the initial entry should not have been made until properly clear of resistance box, but was a reasonable reading of the market. However I think that when things turned sour I should have either exited earlier or exited by reversing the trade. Any guidance / comments on reaching that decision most welcome Pilulae {image}
If you look left at the price action before your entry, you'll see that the market was forming lower highs. This is not conducive to getting long. Better to either draw a descending trendline and wait for it to be broken or wait for the market to print a significant higher high (and then enter during the retrace).
  • #2,865
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:09pm Aug 28, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting erann
Spotted chance for adr failure,i shorted at the blue box,but my problem now is that i tend to exit too early.caught 18 pips where there is an opportunity to catch at least 50++ pips by this time im writing.increase my equity at least 140% this week. {image}
Be careful with ADR counters. They are much more advanced than the normal channel crosses/failures and have more potential to bite you hard.

If you look at what GU has done since you posted the chart, you'll see that your 18 pips profit wasn't a bad result.

When RSI Composite is above 50 and the SMA Dashboard is mostly green, I would not want to get short. I generally only take counters if RSI Composite suggests this is a counter-trend move or if I see price action evidence of a turnaround.

Great news about your equity increase by the way, well done
  • #2,866
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:09pm Aug 28, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting 1odi
{quote} dude, i honestly dunno what to make of ur post and the way u interpreted what i said. but see? that s the beauty of it, people are different, have different ways of thinking and thus seeing different things or percept..i can t and i simply won t battle with ur views or market aproach. i m sorry u had to endur those losses tho, happens to the best of us. cheers
No intention to fight over this, sorry if I sounded as I want to attack your views ... just wanted to contribute about my knowledge about BE. I do not say that BE is bad , just saying more research/backtest would be wise idea, before any newbie grab it as holy grail. Also wanted to point out that nothing is risk free in trading.
No need to be sorry about my losses Thank you for your empathy. After 11 years full time you get used to losing days (even for some years... which is not nice believe me). Probably this is the reason that 95% of charts in trading forums is about winners, because these discussions would start to be crying parties if more losers would be shown
  • #2,867
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:00pm Aug 28, 2020 1:00pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Be careful with ADR counters. They are much more advanced than the normal channel crosses/failures and have more potential to bite you hard. If you look at what GU has done since you posted the chart, you'll see that your 18 pips profit wasn't a bad result. When RSI Composite is above 50 and the SMA Dashboard is mostly green, I would not want to get short. I generally only take counters if RSI Composite suggests this is a counter-trend move or if I see price action evidence of a turnaround. Great news about your equity increase by the way,...
lesson learned.Thank you very much teacher.
  • #2,868
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:01pm Aug 28, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} If you look left at the price action before your entry, you'll see that the market was forming lower highs. This is not conducive to getting long. Better to either draw a descending trendline and wait for it to be broken or wait for the market to print a significant higher high (and then enter during the retrace).
Thanks Laura
So much to learn
  • #2,869
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:42pm Aug 28, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting LauraT
Wanted to chime in on the 'take some profit off the table' subject. I've generally advised my trainees to take a half or a third of their size off at certain points and bank some profit. This isn't necessarily to maximise overall profit. It's mainly for psychological reasons, especially when a trader is getting used to a new way of trading. They can worry about how to maximise profit in due course but, certainly initially, there's a lot of psychological benefit in having taken some money off the table while still being able to profit further from...
i totally agree with the proven wrong thing. and frankly i can t argue with ur reasoning. i was talking more intraday rather then a swing aproach. nontheless, what i ve found is that most of the systems are winning in the long run, it s the psichology and the mindset of the trader that losses.(imo ofc). that s why i said about the BE thing, or like u mentioned taking some profit of the table.
  • #2,870
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:44pm Aug 28, 2020 1:44pm
Quoting za1jcas
{quote} No intention to fight over this, sorry if I sounded as I want to attack your views ... just wanted to contribute about my knowledge about BE. I do not say that BE is bad , just saying more research/backtest would be wise idea, before any newbie grab it as holy grail. Also wanted to point out that nothing is risk free in trading. No need to be sorry about my losses Thank you for your empathy. After 11 years full time you get used to losing days (even for some years... which is not nice believe me). Probably this is the reason that...
no sweat dude, agreed. no1 likes to be seen as a losing trader. would eally be something the day i log into FF and see a thread that only treats losers and how not to trade
  • #2,871
  • Aug 28, 2020 3:38pm Aug 28, 2020 3:38pm
Quoting 1odi
{quote} that was not my intention at all, but i see ur point of view. i do want to apologise if he~she, took it to heart or i ve came across as agressive, that was not my intention. i wanted simply to point out that having price go in ur favour for atleast what u risked and then lose that trade hurts, i ve been thro that as well, so from my own experience, setting BE once the trade has reached for example R1, takes the edge off and it s a risk free trade whatever happens, an also reduces the exposure u have in the market beeing able to take other...
No worries. Feedback is never a bad thing. And as for me personally I am too old to let this type of feedback upset me.
Losing is part of this game. Learning from losing (and winning) is a requirement for ultimately winning in this game.

I post the following in the hopes that I do not come across as being defensive, but maybe assist others in their development.
I am a very, rules based, structured trader. Following rules allows me to truly measure performance over time. I have very consistent rules for how I execute my trades, which allows me to determine probabilities and have the confidence to place and stay in trades. That requires excellent record keeping and a good journal process.
As I was developing the Pushbase setup. Here is what I know according to my rules, with live trades and real money(Thru today)..
74% of the time I hit my first target with a 1.49 avg R/R, 69% of the time it goes to my second target with a 2.26 avg R/R, using a set and forget it approach. In my analysis of this setup far too often I would be out at BE totally giving up the opportunity to win when the probability is in my favor.
I am involved in trading to make money, not to feel good. I am attempting to make money by putting the probabilities in my favor.
Below is also a trade from this week with this same set up that reconfirms my analysis, I would have given up 33 pips by moving too fast to BE.
We all have to create our own systems that give us the probability to make money and the confidence to execute those trades unemotionally. BE may work for others, but for this setup, I found I left more on the table than I protected.
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  • #2,872
  • Aug 31, 2020 10:27am Aug 31, 2020 10:27am
Quoting TheG-Lover
{quote} No worries. Feedback is never a bad thing. And as for me personally I am too old to let this type of feedback upset me. Losing is part of this game. Learning from losing (and winning) is a requirement for ultimately winning in this game. I post the following in the hopes that I do not come across as being defensive, but maybe assist others in their development. I am a very, rules based, structured trader. Following rules allows me to truly measure performance over time. I have very consistent rules for how I execute my trades, which allows...

Wow, so this what successful traders mean when they say "....do your own research and decide what works for you"!

I cannot recall having seen a post on FF showing such evidence of careful analysis. G-Lover you have given me (and I would guess some other members) considerable inspiration, thank you.

The recent debate regarding to BE or not to BE has been very enlightening, showing that as so much in trading, there are more options and nuances to those options and that the obvious is not necessarily the best. Thank you to all who posted on the subject, you have all provided much food for thought.
  • #2,873
  • Aug 31, 2020 4:28pm Aug 31, 2020 4:28pm
Quoting Pilulae
{quote} Wow, so this what successful traders mean when they say "....do your own research and decide what works for you"! I cannot recall having seen a post on FF showing such evidence of careful analysis. G-Lover you have given me (and I would guess some other members) considerable inspiration, thank you. The recent debate regarding to BE or not to BE has been very enlightening, showing that as so much in trading, there are more options and nuances to those options and that the obvious is not necessarily the best. Thank you to all who posted on...
Indeed.
I think I should also clarify that early on in my journey with roadmap, I was also moving stops to BE once at first target, etc. That was based on trying different approaches in my past that over time never sustained the edge. So I had built this sort of mindset "anything to prevent failure" was a good thing.

Now I am also aware that my probability edge may change over time, and may even fall apart. So at some point you have to convince yourself that the evidence supports a certain way of trading. But be willing to change should your data analytics point you in that direction.

It is why posting charts and getting feedback is so valuable. I have a trading friend who reviews my journal every week and gives me his view of my trades. It keeps me honest and provides a wholly different perspective. But always doing the analysis to validate any suggestions. You want to be careful over optimizing....but you can't be so wild and loose with process/decision making that you have no standard from which to evaluate your trading.

In "Trading in the Zone," Mark Douglas makes this statement: "I don't think I could put the difference between the consistent winners and everyone else more simply than this: The best traders aren't afraid". How do you overcome fear? Now that is the journey.

There are unlimited choices, only a very few will make money consistently over time.
  • #2,874
  • Aug 31, 2020 7:01pm Aug 31, 2020 7:01pm
Took another Monday off and was able to capture a move wee early in the morning here

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  • #2,875
  • Sep 1, 2020 3:24am Sep 1, 2020 3:24am
Morning people.
Nasdaq off for a nice long this UK morning.
Posted this to re-enforce Laura's advice about looking left and zooming out etc.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,876
  • Sep 1, 2020 4:40am Sep 1, 2020 4:40am
Hi,
Almost two identical entries on GJ m5 today and yesterday AJ m5. Failures of SMA, exact entry is after trendline break and test of opposite channel. MTF RSI and MAs agrees. Targets till YH, however I exited earlier on AJ because I got big bullish bar, which is good point to exit.
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  • #2,877
  • Sep 1, 2020 11:00am Sep 1, 2020 11:00am
I wanted to highlight a trade I've been in since last week to remind people that the Roadmap doesn't necessarily have to focus on short-term moves.

Let's first take a look at the 4H chart for the US Dollar Index.

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Clearly this is a market in which I wanted to be short. But when and where to get in? Let's look at the 15m chart, where I found my entry.

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At the blue rectangle was where I entered. It was a simple case of waiting for the 15m timeframe to fall into line with the 4H. In terms of when I take profit, I'll now be guided by the 15m timeframe and continue to ride it out until the market tells me the move is over. This will be in the form of a channel cross to the upside of the SMA. In doing so, I'm prepare to risk giving back a bit of profit in return for the opportunity to potentially stay in the trade for further gains.
  • #2,878
  • Sep 1, 2020 12:28pm Sep 1, 2020 12:28pm
I have been watching this thread as it progresses, for some time now. I have to admit Laura presents a very robust entry and exit method, especially for those relatively new to trading this beast called Forex. I explore many methods in my trading, some good, some not so good, this one I would rate very high if I were asked. If your new to trading I would say study and perfect this one method before exploring other methods, you will be happy you did.

Caught this one and just exited at the 200...a picture perfect counter trend entry and exit...
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  • #2,879
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:32pm Sep 1, 2020 9:32pm
Two trades today with the help of my significant other.
1st was EUR/USD and Second GBP/JPY taken at about the same time. The plan was if one doesn't work out to close and add to the other trade. However i closed to late on the EUR/USD never got re-entry signal on GBP/JPY

EUR/USD
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GBP/JPY
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  • #2,880
  • Sep 2, 2020 6:25am Sep 2, 2020 6:25am
Nasdaq this UK morning. I am limited to US Futures because I trade the Micro Futures as an introduction to Futures trading from spread betting.
One loser and two gains.
Dow looks tempting again but I tend to sit and watch one instrument only. Age I guess
Looked at the DAX and what a rise. Good luck to anyone who got that trade - gapped up from open. Not traded by me ( not a micro Future but I am not complaining)
And the sun is out.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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