NFP 11/02/06 which way w/ no change?

Which way will it go if there is no change? What do you think will happen?
Thanks

Hi Ben,

I trade the news a lot and I can tell you tomorrow is going to be a tough NFP to trade. The US has had a lot of bad news lately so I can’t imagine NFP beating estimates but you never know. The tricky thing is the EUR and GBP seem to be topping out and the CBs are trying to keep their currency prices down so they don’t go thru the roof.

<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--><!--[endif]--> So, I think if the US comes out with better than expected numbers tomorrow, that could be a great EUR/USD or GBP/USD short trades since price has plenty of room to move to the downside. If USD numbers disappoint, it’s tough to say how high price will go and it could be short lived. I love NFP Fridays though

Just look at Trichets comments this morning. They were pretty hawkish and the EUR has just been floundering around the 2780 area all day.

Yeah man, I agree this week is awful... NFP week is always bad... I like to short picture better than the long side... too. I cant believe the pound hasnt retraced yet at least a portion of its upmove... id feel more comfortable going long then. at this point it could go up but I mean theres really no pullback thats scary this whole week was bland, a couple of pops up and thats it.. ur right price has alot of downside space to retrace to..

aside from NFP even though this is a news room, we have heavy macd div but we need strong TL break down I see 8950 as a good short target..

I think this will be a hard NFP because the Previous number (51000) was interpreted as 111000, after the September revision. So, a NFP lower than 110000 even if is higher than 51000, might be a against the dollar. Just my 2 cents. I'm not an expert.

I tell ya'... I told myself at the beginning of the week "dont trade USD pairs". Well, I make 80 or so pips trading chf pairs and get into one USD trade and now I am stuck going into tomorrow morning.

Haha, last month I was in GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CHF when NFP came out and took 3 weeks of trading to get myself back to B.E. At least I am only in NZD/USD for this one.

I agree with previous poster who said that if it comes out better than expectations it will be a great trade. I will only trade it if it comes out better, not worse than forecast.

stock good strat, I guess 120k is better than 111k per the revision. lol what a carzy piece of news the nfp is...

In case of bad NFP G/U will not break 1.9176 for sure... BOE will not raise hike next week if G/U hold above 1.9000 and oil stay below 60$ Those setting aleary good like that to get inflation back itself and it will be unwise to hit market with hike!Also EURO ans USD not got hike today/last week so BOE should hold it too.Raise hike are "not a done deal" .Both g/u and euro are now moderatly overbought...So be ready to short tomorow or next week!And forget G/U at 1.95 this year...at this point only Political factors can get G/U at this top(iran,terrorist attack against usa...etc).I see eu/usd for next week around 1.2680/1.2740 and g/U at 1.8750/1.8800.

Actually, the upward revision made the 51K looks like a 170K so it was USD bullish last nfp.

Q: But will traders use 51K, 170K or Estimates as benchmark comparison vs actual number?
A: Look for GBPUSD price movement starting at Asia open to release time. if there is no movemement, trade Actual vs Previous. If there was movememnt (ie, the good/bad guestimate is priced in), trade Actual vs Estimate.

Somehow, I feel holloween is coming to town this friday.. could get ugly or make lots of money... trade conservatively with a conservative limit less you want to get a beating like last month.

guys, somehow we got two NFP threads started. lets make this one the official, i will close this thread cause it is the one with less posts.