USD/JPY Discussion

Don't be surprised to see the current move bringing usdjpy to 113,xx

Looks like the current spike up in indices (mainly US) is running out of steam. There might form a new high, slightly higher, but after that...

And in that case, the BOJ may temporarily lose control of the yen again..like in March. Do not rush to short it with tight stops though. We have posted before about how it spiked up 250 pips before crashing last time it did

Some yen pairs are beginning to look tired. Very tired

In terms of new positions at the start of the week, the pair where I see the greatest probability of some directional movement, although probably not big, with not much volatility, is the USDJPY.

Took a short earlier during Japan session. It looks set to continue its choppy way down. EUR/USD and other mains will probably consolidate a bit before crawling higher. As USD keeps crawling lower, the indices should keep rising, despite the big rise from the bottom of March already in place (the FTSE not so much, because it's being hurt by the appreciation of Cable), along with commodity prices.

Basically, more of the same. UCAD seems likely to keep falling too.

The prospect and the eventual introduction of negative rates, yield curve control etc, will basically encourage corporates to borrow and use the money to buy back stock (like Apple just announced). It's the easy way to raise earnings per share and win that CEO bonus at the end of the year. Whether you like it or not, in such an environment shares are the only big "investment", and the dollar will keep sliding. Things will only change if central bank independence gets revoked, which will mean the pro-deflation financial establishment losing control and pro-inflationist politicians taking back control. Until then, it will be more QE, more tax breaks, negative real and nominal rates and asset price bubbles galore! That's not a USD-positive environment but it's not a USD crash environment either. When the financiers are in control, as they are now, they don't like crazy currency moves. They're all about "price stability". Slight, controlled depreciation or appreciation of some % is the name of the game. They make sure currencies move in bands, like the BoJ has been doing with the yen. One day, they will lose control, but that's not now

Grabbed today's candle's pips, almost 60. Low volatility days. Must try and take what's on offer these lazy August days.

If I stay awake during JPN session I might reshort if price action looks like a retrace

Btw notice:

a) the decline from 107 is now a neat 2-legged move. Today was the second leg. These moves are usually corrections before resumption of prior move, which was an uptrend.

b) today's 2nd leg down got us to last Monday's open and close, more or less. Sooo, decision time - reverse last week's move and move below its lows, or turn around? IMO, the odds are on reversal and move back up

Yep. Left a trap out there for just this. The Dollar doesn't appear finished, so I see one more push during Asia, perhaps Europe before she turns around. Or worse.. We wollop here until FOMC minutes on Wed. I doubt that though.

holly sheet USD/JPY down down and down, shit USD down down and down, why US cannot make USD go to hight

I didnt stay up during JPN session (it''s late at night in my time zone). Missed the third leg down. It's now at July's close and near August's lows. Will it reverse August's move up and break below its low? Still a few days left to the trading month
I'm watching the main pairs and indices, but no signals of reversal and no entries with decent risk-reward right now

Break of 105.60 by moving higher just printed a bullish bell on the 30min chart. If it's an early sign of reversal, we will probably get a bullish bell on the 1 hour timeframe too, later on.

Risk would be only 20-22 pips, with SL just below this morning's low. I took it.

Swing and MISSSSSS!!!

It never printed a bullish bell on the 1hour charts. The 30min was the best it could do.

Stocks look like they're in two minds about new highs in some of the indices. If they are about to correct deep or reverse, UJPY might have quite a bit lower to go

*munches on popcorn, waiting for market signals*

AUDUSD is often a bellwether for risk appetite, and its price action today has been..interesting! Maybe it's a sign of risk aversion returning to the markets soon.

In which case...UJPY will probably tank. Keep yer eyes peeled for signs of some late August market drama

Imo, although USDJPY price action is generally sideways, htf technicals favour bears.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Awake for a bit in JPN session. Im already short SP500, long UCAD, short AUD since NY session. Now just entered short UJPY 1 hourly candle after a second bearish bell. SLoss just 21 pips

I marked the two hourly bearish bell candles with arrows. Aren't they cute? lol

All closed.

Not yet, it seems. More waiting

Picked up a long now at 105.80

Bought some more at 105.60 Looks like I will be buying into the weekend. So be it!

Morning Still holding a long term long trade on this pair. Its the longest trade I have ever held Its purely based on fundamentals. Open to discussion or opinion on this. Also, any advise from traders who hold long term positions. Thanks