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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #3,961
  • Aug 11, 2020 6:10am Aug 11, 2020 6:10am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} How's That ? {image} {image} {image}

The histogram signals are good ,now



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KISS&V :Keep it simple safe & visual
  • #3,962
  • Aug 11, 2020 12:26pm Aug 11, 2020 12:26pm
got stopped on yesterdays trade, small loss....but entered again for several reasons, one of being the 52 degree angle on the Becks emblem....but also the heiken color change at resistance....will be closing as it tests the offset 90 degree angle on the latest impulse wave south...
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  • #3,963
  • Edited 2:31pm Aug 11, 2020 2:18pm | Edited 2:31pm
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Parisboy, Dave & Others,

Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
  • #3,964
  • Edited Aug 12, 2020 1:46am Aug 11, 2020 2:55pm | Edited Aug 12, 2020 1:46am
Quoting acetrader
{image}Parisboy, Dave & Others, Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
Ace you begin to grasp it ! with "about to possibly happen"

Hurst analysis allows you to :

- understand the past with Hurst tools
- then build a prospective scenario for the future
- and even an alternative scenario if the first one fails

Then Hurst give you various cyclical tools - all related - to trade actively the scenario in progress :

Centered Moving Averages as proxy for various Trends, ,
Valid trendlines (VTL) whose breaks confirm previous Tops and Low and signal a Change in Trend and subsequently incitate to open a position.,
Envelopes as a tool for determining the average amplitude of a Swing (Price) and the period (Time) of the Dominant operative Cycles within Price Action,
Centered Moving Average Crossing and FLD Crossing with Price action as a tool to determine a Target Price Prediction Zone
FLD as a tool for following a trend
  • #3,965
  • Edited Aug 12, 2020 1:44am Aug 11, 2020 3:11pm | Edited Aug 12, 2020 1:44am
Quoting acetrader
{image}Parisboy, Dave & Others, Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
Ace, as you have noted :

a) As Long as Price Action has not broken on the Downside the Ascending Valid Trend Line (green) Trend is Up

This VTL plays a role of Support and qualify the present uptrending Swing an uptrending Rally within a bearish Trend ( all 2 other Envelopes of higher degree, nature, order than the red Envelope showing a bearish Trend

b) the present uptrending Swing has touched the blue Centered Moving Average building there a Top of degree 2 (red Envelope + blue Envelope together) AND showing ipso a RETURN TO THE MEAN - here the mean is the blue Centered Moving Average

c) Uptrending Scenario :

IF Price Action goes higher ; Future possible Target Prices are given :

1) by the green Centered Moving Average (2) which is a strong Resistance being the Center of Gravity of the 3 Envelopes and of Price Action (withi the chart)

2) If the green Centered Moving Average is broken on the upside, next step is the upper boundary of the Blue Envelope in 3

as the general underlying trend is bearish then the Upper Limit of the blue Envelope has a strong probability to see the end of the Uptrending rally.

3) IF the Upper Limit of the blue Envelope is broken on the Upside ,next target is the upper Limit of the green Envelope in (4)

This would generate a WARNING showing that Price Action is very close to a Change of Status and Nature going from an uptrending Rally within a bearish Trend to a Change in Trend



-
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  • #3,966
  • Aug 11, 2020 3:40pm Aug 11, 2020 3:40pm
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  • #3,967
  • Aug 11, 2020 4:41pm Aug 11, 2020 4:41pm
Parisboy,
Using envelope is bringing it all together. I can even use envelope to confirm my core method & use my core method to confirm the envelopes. This week has been the week to bring it all together for me as I have put much focus on what you have been teaching. A big thanks to you & Dave for sharing your hard earned knowledge. I will put more charts up as time goes on. Thank you for you response on that last chart.

Hey Dave a big thank you my friend. Parisboy keep sharing your knowledge & chart examples.

*********************************************************************************
  • #3,968
  • Aug 12, 2020 1:41am Aug 12, 2020 1:41am
DAX 1 mn

Food for thoughts
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  • #3,969
  • Aug 12, 2020 1:45am Aug 12, 2020 1:45am
Quoting acetrader
{image}Parisboy, Dave & Others, Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
Ace which is really important is YOUR ANALYSIS
  • #3,970
  • Edited 10:49am Aug 12, 2020 1:52am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting acetrader
{image}Parisboy, Dave & Others, Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
Ace,

I am not at all convinced of that. I will elaborate gradually with this important subject

Jim Hurst did not come from nowhere. His book (1970) and later his course (1975) is based on the work and researches of the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC).

For example Hurst rename Synchronicity what Edward Dewey named "Synchrony" - for the newbie Synchronicity is the fact that short periods Cycles end to make a low at the Low of a Longer period Cycle.

In his book Profit Magic (1970) Jim Hurst made a synthesis of Cyclical Principles discovered by the FSC guys.

Moreover and more important for us Hurst translated these principles into a practical, workable system for the Dummies, a methodology that traders could use to trade the market and cash some dollars.

Notice that at the Time, (1970-1975) no common people had an access to computers which at the time were less powerful and versatile than your mobile phone

The guys of the FSC were not really interested by such trivial things as making some dollars. They were happy having demonstrated "there is a 6 years Cycle within the Stock Market" and other animal and human behaviour.

You can classify Hurst's work in his book Profit Magic this way :

a) Definition of 8 Cyclic Principles
b) Definition of a Cyclic " Model" to analyze the market - based on the 8 principles quoted above
c) Demonstration that ALL Technical Analysis patterns (Triangles, Heads & Shoulder , Wedges, Pennants, Double and Triple Botoms or Tops etc are the by-product of Cycles
d) Demonstration of the use of Envelopes to increase the visibility of Price Action and to determine visually the Dominant Cycles operating within Price Action
e) Understanding of the use of Centered Moving Averages as a proxy for Trend(s) and as a "filter" of Price Action
f) use of cyclical based tools - Centered Moving Averages crossings, Valid Trend Lines , Curvilinear Envelopes as a help for Trading
g)Trading examples - Edge Band trading / Mid Band Trading

h) Mathematical annexes where Hurst link Spectral analysis, Fourier Analysis, Parabolic Interpolation, Trigonometrric Curve Fitting and Frequency response Characteristics to his work and cycles
  • #3,971
  • Aug 12, 2020 2:09am Aug 12, 2020 2:09am
Quoting acetrader
Parisboy, Using envelope is bringing it all together. I can even use envelope to confirm my core method & use my core method to confirm the envelopes. This week has been the week to bring it all together for me as I have put much focus on what you have been teaching. A big thanks to you & Dave for sharing your hard earned knowledge. I will put more charts up as time goes on. Thank you for you response on that last chart. Hey Dave a big thank you my friend. Parisboy keep sharing your knowledge & chart examples. *********************************************************************************...
Hi Ace
To be honest I am glad to see Alain as answered your question before me, as there is no way that I could match his detailed response.
Thank you for your kind words but i am afraid I am still only an apprentice that sits at the back of his class, I like you can see the tremendous advantages of trading with this method but on occasions similar to you, my old methods still call, much to my annoyance but gradually not so often now as more and more Alain's method produces the goods, his live trading of the trade popped up by Swede was amazing. The reason I post, sometimes perhaps a little to often, is in the hope that it will encourage guys to break the ice and post as you do and try to get comments from other guys beside Alain
For the MT4 users Sohocool as made our life easy with his indicators and now even trying to bring another version out that just might help even more, I have noticed he as had plenty of downloads but alas not many posts that show them in use
I will leave it there in the hope that more guys will follow you and post and indeed more guys beside Alain will join in with there view of the post. Swede is a good example as he post his trades and even adds the confluence he looks for from his other methods, Alain does not object when he mentions (other) things
So come on guys please post a few charts as if nothing else it will help me with my learning
Dave
  • #3,972
  • Aug 12, 2020 4:39am Aug 12, 2020 4:39am
Parisboy & Dave,


Thank you guys for all of your help, views & comments as they are most appreciated. For me this is a daily process of learning something entirely new. All is going well though. Dave I agree Sohocool & his coding skills makes setting up the envelopes a much easier task. He has few if any peers in the coding field. Best of trades to you guys.
  • #3,973
  • Aug 12, 2020 5:10am Aug 12, 2020 5:10am
Parisboy in post 3970 mentions normal chart patterns, any comments on this one
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  • #3,974
  • Aug 12, 2020 5:23am Aug 12, 2020 5:23am
Update on Sohocool latest Indicator
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  • #3,975
  • Aug 12, 2020 5:34am Aug 12, 2020 5:34am
Quoting acetrader
Parisboy, Using envelope is bringing it all together. I can even use envelope to confirm my core method & use my core method to confirm the envelopes. This week has been the week to bring it all together for me as I have put much focus on what you have been teaching. A big thanks to you & Dave for sharing your hard earned knowledge. I will put more charts up as time goes on. Thank you for you response on that last chart. Hey Dave a big thank you my friend. Parisboy keep sharing your knowledge & chart examples. *********************************************************************************...
Ace it would be great if you could show us an example.

Confluence of methods can be useful.

Moreover everybody here has his own history . Hence it is 100 % "normal" that the readers and users stay with the tools they already know and trust.

It is what I have done in 2006 adding Gann tools and philosophy to Hurst tools and methodology
  • #3,976
  • Edited 9:42am Aug 12, 2020 5:40am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting OAPDave
Parisboy in post 3970 mentions normal chart patterns, any comments on this one {image}
Hurst Cyclic view on Head and Shoulders
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  • #3,977
  • Edited 9:42am Aug 12, 2020 5:41am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting OAPDave
Parisboy in post 3970 mentions normal chart patterns, any comments on this one {image}
Brian Millard Cyclic view on Head & Shoulders
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  • #3,978
  • Aug 12, 2020 8:15am Aug 12, 2020 8:15am
Quoting OAPDave
Parisboy in post 3970 mentions normal chart patterns, any comments on this one {image}
You do not need Spectral Analysis to determine the Dominant Cycles at work within Price Action

Moreover these cycles work for you !

They are composite Cycles :what you see is the end-product of ALL operating Cycles , their amplitude is the SUM (plus/minus, bearish/bullish) of the Amplitudes of ALL operating Cycles within Price action
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  • #3,979
  • Aug 12, 2020 8:29am Aug 12, 2020 8:29am
Quoting OAPDave
Parisboy in post 3970 mentions normal chart patterns, any comments on this one {image}
You can even go deeper in the Analysis
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  • #3,980
  • Aug 13, 2020 6:21am Aug 13, 2020 6:21am
Quoting acetrader
{image}Parisboy, Dave & Others, Your views on this chart please. It is amazing to me how well the envelopes show you what is happening or about to possibly happen. With everyday that I use the envelopes I am starting to realize their value in trading & just how far ahead of the crowd Hurst really was. In views, comments or schooling greatly appreciated.
When looking into Hurst writings it is helpful to consider the historical context, the Timing

as an Aerospace Engineer Hurst drew upon the science based analysis tools available to him in his research focused on wave theory specific to submarine and space communication and applied them to the non-science of stock market price movement.

It is also important to consider that the data Hurst had to work with was limited to daily, weekly, monthly OHLC and from a period when the markets were very different than today.

What Hurst found was a reasonable fit in that the science based wave principles seemed to account for the price action he was observing.

All this above suggest the best way to take advantage of Hurst's work is to realize that it is only useful as an analogy, a proxy in understanding price movement... ins short it tends to explain price action more often than it does not.

Some times it is accurate and sometimes it is less accurate

. It is also interesting to consider what his results would have been if Hurst had today's sub-minute 24 hr / day tick data available for his research and was not limited by the processing power of a punch card data entry "super computer" with less processing power than today's smart phone.
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