Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

GBPUSD 5 mn

Tillman Fork Follow up

1.3100 held....stop just above VTL

GBPUSD 5 mn

For now a possible scenario to follow up.

Future Price Action will confirm or not.

GBPUSD 5 mn

Notiice that 1.30450 + 0.00090 = 1.30540

right now GBPUSD reached 1.30422

Center of Gravity of the Potential Target Zone is 1.30450

Lowest Boundary of the Potential Target Zone is 1.30450 - 0.00090 = 1.30360

Let's say it was a good day for Hurst methodology and tools !

no kidding...good wine tonight...no screw top for me lol

Sometimes Price Action graphed on a chart is a kind of (necessary) nuisance.

Without Price Sinewaves of various periods oscillating around a "center line" are obvious.

Very Very good day and really helpful insight into the mind of a trader,
Just show 3 Envelope expansion now that Daily Range is very decent indeed
Thank you
ps
Any chance of giving me the correct order of finish for the 16:35 at Sandown today

I have a Low at 1.30293

But for a graphical estimation of a Future "Focal Point" (Crossing of Active Centered Moving Averages not at the time realized), I will rate this estimation close to excellent !

Dave if we consider this GBPUSD 30 mn chart, we have a possible target between 1,298 / 1,296

Explanations follow.

It is (yet) a scenario not a forecast. Need refinement

GBPUSD 5 mn

FLD 256 Target Price Zone

For the newbies Price Action crossed its Future Line of Demarcation 256 Time Units. Meaning Price is translated FORWARD of 1/2 Period = 128 Units

Price right now is at 1.30114

Cyclicality in Prices

Both Jim Hurst and before him Edward Dewey theorized that the market is a composite of various length cycles.

They believed that trading market prices were especially susceptible to cyclical effects but were unable to arrive at a reason. A reason for the existence of cycles isn’t absolutely necessary to believe in what is observed empirically though it is certainly more comforting to know “why” cycles exist. If their existence can be demonstrated empirically, however, the “why” can come later.

The sun rose and set every day without explanation for millions of years, but only in the past 2,000 or so years has its transit been understood. Despite his lack of solar knowledge, the caveman could still accurately predict with reliability that the sun would rise the next morning. Thus, in trading markets, if cycles exist, we don’t know why, but still we can use what we have observed to analyze and predict.

In market price data, at present I believ cycles are only tendencies, more than facts. If cycles exist in market data, they are not very precise. Were they precise, they would have been quantified many years ago. However, there does seem to be a tendency toward periodicity in market prices.

That means highs and lows have a habit of occurring at somewhat regular intervals regardless of their strength and underlying trend.

Cycles

Cycles can be defined mathematically using trigonometric functions, specifically the sine and cosine formulas.

For this reason, the mathematics of discovery are well understood, and cycles can be pulled out of time series data with ease using Fourier transforms, spectral analysis, or digital filtering. Why don’t these methods work in the stock market?

Because while stock prices may have a constant periodicity to their price action, the amplitude of these oscillations is not constant, and most mathematics-based trigonometric functions assume constant amplitude. Thus the mathematics of cycles is unable to recognize the characteristics of ideal harmonics in market data.

Figure 1 displays an ideal cycle as defined by a sine curve.A harmonic, time-series cycle is defined by 4 variables:

the period,
the amplitude,
the phase shift,
and the vertical shift.

The shifts refer to different cycle starting points; the amplitude is the height of the cycle from bottom to top; and the period is the distance in time from one low to the next.

In the stock market, the period between cycles? the projected peak or trough level,is of most interest to traders, and the amplitude is for many , researchers included, of interest only to a limited extent because it is volatile and irregular.

Parisboy & Sohocool I have spent the time looking at all time-frames

Thank you
Dave

Dave Excellent investment of your time.

For anyone that is unfamiliar with the versatility of Sohocool PBChannel GANN v1 Indicator
A few screenshots

Are those open likes dave

just a suggestion dave...your channels could be weekly .....put a channel.inside so to capure the daily?

if you work it right your outer channel.will tell your direction for the week and inner gives you clue to the days direction...aka hurst

Hi
Were you been ?
Yes they are my platform Daily Open
You can set the Envelopes to anytime timeframe any any width you like, its really up to you, what you work with .
Dave

using the mt platform on 1hr tf i use the 4hr tf as my outer channel
this allows me to see the weekly directional view
i use the current 1hr timeframe as the inner channel....this give me the day by day view.....also on h1 tf the period seperator is a day by day period so you see a whole days action in1hr candles (same for lower tfs)

if you do the same as above but on the m15 tf plotting m15 and h1 channels you see greater detail...and wheb you plot the open line you gain greater in sights

let me leave with rhis point to look at

look at the daily candle.....it has open high low and a close
wouldnt it be great to see when the high or low is made and able to catch the majority of the move in a daily time.

take this and put this idea with the above channels and see if it makes any sense