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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #83,161
  • Aug 3, 2020 6:58am Aug 3, 2020 6:58am
PA just touched the resistance. I hope it goes south
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  • #83,162
  • Aug 3, 2020 7:13am Aug 3, 2020 7:13am
Just my point of view. Waiting for a pullback to go long or next resistance to go short.
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adapt or be killed
  • #83,163
  • Aug 3, 2020 8:17am Aug 3, 2020 8:17am
Quoting emmmmmmmm
{quote} I'm in this one as well. Don't really like how MN closed, but with W1 being such a nice pin I will keep this one open and see how it plays out. I do think it's probable though that UJ will drop quite a bit in august, but ... that'd be fine as well! : ) {image}
Honestly I have no clear idea where this would go, but ending the month > 105 and now at 106's plus 104.5 acting as a solid suppott is telling me that in this bull/bear fight nobody has won yet, clear monthly close bellow 105 or 110 will give clear direction of UJ. My bet would be a breakout higher, much higher, but that'a only a bet, just a "feeling" that UJ will be chased up to 120's but because feelings are not reliable trading indicators for now I'll play the both sides depending on what the market will tell me. At the end I'm not perma anything, except for my account.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #83,164
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:15am Aug 3, 2020 10:15am
Quoting bikov
{quote} Honestly I have no clear idea where this would go, but ending the month > 105 and now at 106's plus 104.5 acting as a solid suppott is telling me that in this bull/bear fight nobody has won yet, clear monthly close bellow 105 or 110 will give clear direction of UJ. My bet would be a breakout higher, much higher, but that'a only a bet, just a "feeling" that UJ will be chased up to 120's but because feelings are not reliable trading indicators for now I'll play the both sides depending on what the market will tell me. At the end I'm not perma...
Hmm, I do have a bit of a downward bias on this one, mostly because USDx broke 12100 support and I can't see much buying in USD yet. (Oh, and the february bounce off of UJ 2019 high makes a bold down candle for 2020 a plausible scenario imo). The july UJ close below 106 is in my personal interpretation a sign of weakness (even though I would've preferred a close below 105). I'll be looking for a bounce near the july open, but if it doesn't I'll go with the flow and see where it takes us! : )
Good luck, and thanks for sharing your thoughts!
.
  • #83,165
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:25am Aug 3, 2020 10:25am
Hello, moment-by-moment analysis of the gold symbol. Short and long times /
We invite gold market enthusiasts to join us

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13094107
  • #83,166
  • Aug 3, 2020 12:54pm Aug 3, 2020 12:54pm
I still think this will go even lower..
  • #83,167
  • Aug 4, 2020 8:51am Aug 4, 2020 8:51am
What about this?
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  • #83,168
  • Aug 4, 2020 2:41pm Aug 4, 2020 2:41pm
Finally... Movement. Gold Skyrocketting. Dollar going steadily lower, and THIS pair just sat there. Short to 105.6. Will reevaluate there. Got in at 106.05. If it breaks 105.5 we could see some good movement.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,169
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:04am Aug 6, 2020 5:04am
Quoting krst8
{quote} crazy down, got caught in this fall. There is some support around 105.75 but not sure it will hold.The first support zone on the daily just got slized like nothing... {image}

oUCH! Lost some on this one. I had to sell at 105.73 but it took me days to even get that level.

The USD is getting hammered across the board as the market expects further deficit spending that is monetised by the Fed. This is in constrast to EUR where such monetisation is basically illegal for the ECB (the Germans control it and they grow pimples every time they hear about deficits, let alone money printing to monetise the deficits). Even the GBP has not done any monetisation (at least not yet).

So anything denominated in USD rises in price. Oil (so USDCAD falls), commodities (AUDUSD rises), US stock indices (some devaluation is great for the level of an index in the local currency).

At the moment I don't see any signs of serious USD strength. US indices seem about to spike up for the next couple of weeks at least, so I am only invested there atm. Nothing else to post about in terms of trades these days. If you got into a trade that you think has legs, it's best to not micromanage it and just sit back and let it do its thing.
  • #83,170
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:07am Aug 6, 2020 5:07am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Finally... Movement. Gold Skyrocketting. Dollar going steadily lower, and THIS pair just sat there. Short to 105.6. Will reevaluate there. Got in at 106.05. If it breaks 105.5 we could see some good movement.
The BoJ is babysitting the Yen. Hard to allow for big movements. Only when a huge panic breaks out we see a big candle, and that only until the BoJ intervenes.
  • #83,171
  • Aug 6, 2020 6:37am Aug 6, 2020 6:37am
I am doing a little experiment on the USDJPY. Usually, I trade the pair on the long side and look for several take profit areas. Presently, I am trading it on the short side. I did not move my sl to a break even area until yesterday because I was testing how it retraces when bearish.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #83,172
  • Aug 6, 2020 12:12pm Aug 6, 2020 12:12pm
Quoting KeenPips
I am doing a little experiment on the USDJPY. Usually, I trade the pair on the long side and look for several take profit areas. Presently, I am trading it on the short side. I did not move my sl to a break even area until yesterday because I was testing how it retraces when bearish. KP
Can I ask what you found out from your little experiment?
  • #83,173
  • Aug 6, 2020 1:06pm Aug 6, 2020 1:06pm
Thanks mate. Keep a good distance from the price action; that is, once your trade is in positive mode, don't move your stop loss to break even until price action has reached your first take profit target. When the price action has reached the first take profit target, let it continue further and then wait for it to retrace. Once it has continued to head back to your direction after retracement, then move your stop loss to a bit beyond the break even point. Let the trade run. Once it is getting near to your second take profit target, move the stop loss to a bit beyond your first take profit target. I got the setup on the H4 tf and entered the trade on the M15. Please test this first on a demo or a micro lot (i.e. 0.01) first; but you need to not panic and be patient.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting godlike
{quote} Can I ask what you found out from your little experiment?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #83,174
  • Aug 6, 2020 1:08pm Aug 6, 2020 1:08pm
My View of USDJPY right now. Day trading analysis

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13101477
  • #83,175
  • Aug 6, 2020 1:19pm Aug 6, 2020 1:19pm
Quoting KeenPips
Thanks mate. Keep a good distance from the price action; that is, once your trade is in positive mode, don't move your stop loss to break even until price action has reached your first take profit target. When the price action has reached the first take profit target, let it continue further and then wait for it to retrace. Once it has continued to head back to your direction after retracement, then move your stop loss to a bit beyond the break even point. Let the trade run. Once it is getting near to your second take profit target, move the stop...
Thanks
  • #83,176
  • Aug 7, 2020 8:19am Aug 7, 2020 8:19am
I went long at 105.66 with TP at 107.
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  • #83,177
  • Aug 7, 2020 4:12pm Aug 7, 2020 4:12pm
Good week. Although I didn't realize until today it was Friday lol. Hope everyone got their pips and more.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,178
  • Aug 9, 2020 11:56am Aug 9, 2020 11:56am
waiting for jpy shorts to play out anytime soon

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #83,179
  • Aug 9, 2020 3:30pm Aug 9, 2020 3:30pm
The USDJPY market is presently sideways but short-term momentum is under the influence of bulls. Consider this technical perspective. Generally, the USDJPY market is in consolidation. Two weeks ago, market operation printed a long-tailed, doji-like candlestick, which did not have any follow-through last week. On the H4 time frame, market structure favours bears although price action momentum is bullish, apparently for a corrective move. The 106.530 horizontal resistance area is in confluence with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the bearish drop from 107.225 to 104.180. Presently, price action is located at the 61.8 Fib area, which is also a congestion area. Should bulls break out of the area, they will technically target the 78.6 Fib area, i.e. the 106.530 horizontal resistance, an area susceptible to a southward turnaround. At any rate, we should await what price action does on Monday.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #83,180
  • Aug 11, 2020 4:01am Aug 11, 2020 4:01am
Incoming Cup and Handle pattern in H1.
Looking for short term sell at resistance. Long term bullish pattern if play out from the textbook.
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