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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #2,641
  • Jul 10, 2020 12:00pm Jul 10, 2020 12:00pm
Quoting emergentfeat
What I still don't get, however, is where the stoploss is placed if you are entering far from the SMA. From my understanding, the official guideline is that the stop should be placed an arbitrarily far distance away from price on the opposite side of the SMA. If price is already very far from the SMA, however, following the guideline would lead to a ridiculously large stop. So, I guess the stop should also be moved to the trade-side of the SMA, based on perhaps a key support/resistance level? If anyone knows the answer to this, please let me know....
Just a quick reply on this point as I probably never really expanded on it previously.

Let's say there is a particularly strong trend underway and you make the decision to jump onboard while price is, say, 100 pips away from SMA200. As you correctly identify, a traditional stop placement (i.e. the emergency stop) is going to provide an absurd level of risk. In that case, I would suggest placing an emergency stop around the SMA but (and this is a key BUT) then actively managing the trade using trendlines and speedlines. Once your trendline is broken and the dominant trend is seen to be weakening, you can make a decision whether to take profit, take partial profit or stay in for the ride.

Hope this helps.
  • #2,642
  • Edited Jul 11, 2020 12:02am Jul 10, 2020 11:43pm | Edited Jul 11, 2020 12:02am
Quoting ficibald
good trades, I don't know? {image} {image}
I do not believe they were the best of trades. It looks like a few of the road map rules may have been broken. However I also don't know your exact entry, and lets face it I might be a few fries short of a happy-meal.

Two things primarily stand out to me on the USDCHF. 1st RSI is below 50 and second we entered near resistance. If we look left we can see a support/resistance area. The other thing I see which for me can get confusing at times is the higher time frame. If you look at the one hour we pretty much entered long at a high and while in a downward trend.
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Second trade for the NZDUSD I noticed RSI above 50 and the M1,M30,H1,H4,D1 200 SMA's are all below prce leaving only M5 and M15 above price. Even though the current M5 200 SMA is above price the bigger picture indicates up. Something I have started doing is picturing what price would look like at a higher time frame. In this case you can look at the H1 chart. To me PA is telling me not to go short
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  • #2,643
  • Jul 11, 2020 12:48am Jul 11, 2020 12:48am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Just a quick reply on this point as I probably never really expanded on it previously. Let's say there is a particularly strong trend underway and you make the decision to jump onboard while price is, say, 100 pips away from SMA200. As you correctly identify, a traditional stop placement (i.e. the emergency stop) is going to provide an absurd level of risk. In that case, I would suggest placing an emergency stop around the SMA but (and this is a key BUT) then actively managing the trade using trendlines and speedlines. Once your trendline...
Hi Laura, thanks so much for popping in to answer this. I think that makes sense and clears up a point of confusion I've had for a while.

Thanks again,
-emergentfeat
  • #2,644
  • Jul 12, 2020 2:23am Jul 12, 2020 2:23am
Quoting emergentfeat
Yeah, Mark Douglas is great. I found his trading psychology stuff (which Laura often quotes) to be really helpful, particularly the bits where he talks about thinking in terms of probabilities and "series of trades" rather than single trades.
Yup, I liked the way he worded that. Also liked "It's an 'edge'ucated guess with a random outcome."

Quoting emergentfeat
I found a post by Laura where she says:I'm experimenting with distance from SMA200 as a function of ADR. In this case, I have bands placed at 50% of ADR, although I'm also experimenting with 33% as a more conservative setting.
Interesting I will have to play around with it. Thanks for the find. Also thank you LuaraT for such a swift reply

Quoting emergentfeat
My pleasure to have this discussion with you! You seem super enthusiastic about this whole thing, which is cool.
Yes! I would have to positively agree and appreciate the information and time taken. Will hopefully be finishing the remaining 2 videos this weekend!
  • #2,645
  • Jul 12, 2020 3:00am Jul 12, 2020 3:00am
Cheers ChubbyWookie ;-D

I have a more general question for the group (based on my scouring of the extensive thread, I can't find the answer, but please let me know if this has been discussed). I understand that it's probably best to only take one trade at a time within groups of markets which are correlated. However, I'm not sure what to do if multiple markets all trigger at around the same time. For example, all the indexes are highly correlated, so usually, you can find at least two or three of them which have a clear direction and meet the Roadmap criteria.

What do you do in this case? What I've been doing is basically eyeballing the higher timeframe chart to see which market “looks the best” and picking that one (where good looks are crudely defined as having the strongest trend (if I’m trading in the direction of the trend); i.e., the market which is the cleanest and least ambiguous). However, while this is intuitively logical, I’m not sure it is optimal. For example, sometimes markets which have been moving more sideways will just pop out suddenly and outperform the ones which have been trending. So, not sure what to do. I've had this problem with other discretionary systems trading currencies, because these often all move in sync as well. To date, haven't solved that problem.
  • #2,646
  • Jul 12, 2020 9:11am Jul 12, 2020 9:11am
English is not my language, sorry

USDCAD's view next week
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  • #2,647
  • Jul 12, 2020 9:45am Jul 12, 2020 9:45am
Quoting emergentfeat
Cheers ChubbyWookie ;-D I have a more general question for the group (based on my scouring of the extensive thread, I can't find the answer, but please let me know if this has been discussed). I understand that it's probably best to only take one trade at a time within groups of markets which are correlated. However, I'm not sure what to do if multiple markets all trigger at around the same time. For example, all the indexes are highly correlated, so usually, you can find at least two or three of them which have a clear direction and meet the Roadmap...
As far as Indexes - being correlated they all might move in the same direction, some times it so happens that NASDAQ might already have a long setup and DOW might still be forming because the channel was below the SMA and vice-versa. There are times where both might have a valid setup on a long or short - so eventually it will depend on the risk appetite, I tried trading both indices at the same time with a split risk and it did not work out for me, so typically I trade only DOW these days and with the same combined risk and it is only 1 chart I have to focus.
  • #2,648
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:19pm Jul 12, 2020 7:19pm
Quoting Doya
English is not my language, sorry USDCAD's view next week {image}
Where are the 8 EMA channels?
All you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be.
  • #2,649
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:47pm Jul 12, 2020 7:47pm
AUS200, MTF dashboard all green, composite RSI 53, stop loss under SMA200
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  • #2,650
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:55pm Jul 12, 2020 7:55pm
Quoting karun
{quote} As far as Indexes - being correlated they all might move in the same direction, some times it so happens that NASDAQ might already have a long setup and DOW might still be forming because the channel was below the SMA and vice-versa. There are times where both might have a valid setup on a long or short - so eventually it will depend on the risk appetite, I tried trading both indices at the same time with a split risk and it did not work out for me, so typically I trade only DOW these days and with the same combined risk and it is only 1...
Yeah, I thought about possibly splitting the position over multiple markets as well, but this just seems like it would be logistically difficult. What were the challenges for you? I'm also curious why you chose the DOW rather than NASDAQ, S&P 500, or other index?
  • #2,651
  • Jul 12, 2020 9:59pm Jul 12, 2020 9:59pm
Quoting dbsdsun
AUS200, MTF dashboard all green, composite RSI 53, stop loss under SMA200 {image}
I probably wouldn't have entered here because it looks like a buying climax has occurred. I know at this point hindsight is 20/20 but I think even looking at the chart as presented you could infer that further consolidation is likely. When price gaps up like this and then collapses down, it generally is a bad sign. There is definitely at least a change in character from a smooth pattern of higher highs and higher lows to a messy pattern of spikes in both directions. To me that would be a warning sign.
  • #2,652
  • Jul 12, 2020 11:23pm Jul 12, 2020 11:23pm
Quoting Loftboy
{quote} Where are the 8 EMA channels?
I have used 8ema and will remove him afterwards, so as to keep the picture clean
  • #2,653
  • Jul 13, 2020 2:42am Jul 13, 2020 2:42am
audnzd sell
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  • #2,654
  • Jul 13, 2020 2:48am Jul 13, 2020 2:48am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I do not believe they were the best of trades. It looks like a few of the road map rules may have been broken. However I also don't know your exact entry, and lets face it I might be a few fries short of a happy-meal. Two things primarily stand out to me on the USDCHF. 1st RSI is below 50 and second we entered near resistance. If we look left we can see a support/resistance area. The other thing I see which for me can get confusing at times is the higher time frame. If you look at the one hour we pretty much entered long at a high and while...
thanks for advice now I look on 1h and dont go against trend there is better trade I think
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  • #2,655
  • Jul 13, 2020 2:56am Jul 13, 2020 2:56am
gbpcad buy
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  • #2,656
  • Jul 13, 2020 3:34am Jul 13, 2020 3:34am
Quoting Doya
English is not my language, sorry USDCAD's view next week {image}
Where is your 8 ema channel?
Why are the trend lines so late?
What are you trying to say?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,657
  • Jul 13, 2020 3:48am Jul 13, 2020 3:48am
Nasdaq
First loser as it crashed into overhead resistance and I was slow to react. I some times draw these lines but forget them in the heat of battle. But a good morning so far. Laura has a gem of an approach here.
"No Trigger" where I expected price to break 10894 for a short.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,658
  • Jul 13, 2020 3:59am Jul 13, 2020 3:59am
And the DAX - NOT traded by me but I put some "?" for suggested trades around support etc lines and levels. Maybe a loser among them but a couple of good trades also ?
Anything you guys would add that might also be considered.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,659
  • Jul 13, 2020 5:13am Jul 13, 2020 5:13am
Good day everyone. Is anyone using this system on ninja trader 8 platform?
  • #2,660
  • Jul 13, 2020 6:47am Jul 13, 2020 6:47am
Quoting buzznack
Good day everyone. Is anyone using this system on ninja trader 8 platform?
I dont know,we are forex junkys,why you use ninja trader?is there some benefit?volume on indices?
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