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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #821
  • Jun 29, 2020 4:57am Jun 29, 2020 4:57am
Quoting ozziedave
I remember looking at this thread in the early days and not giving it much thought. I come back a few months later and see that it has turned into a really nice methodology for trading.
Well, I'm half way to my goal of trading this system for a complete year without deviating from the original idea and if possible being profitable in the end.
Building confidence and consistence month after month is a work in progress which if successful should translate in good numbers in December but that still remains to be seen...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #822
  • Jul 3, 2020 1:02am Jul 3, 2020 1:02am
Hi guys, everything okay? I find it a very interesting strategy, but when I load the indicators on my mt4 it doesn't work for me. Anyone else has happened? thank you!
  • #823
  • Jul 3, 2020 1:48am Jul 3, 2020 1:48am
Since the end of the very nice 20-17 trend we entered a (usually) bullish consolidation flag in blue, which now seems to be morphing into a triangle consolidation in red as 1.12 looks like a good support.

We must be aware that we won't have a decent trending market as long as we stay in these areas but it's still (for me) important to make (prudent) tentatives to trade this market at least to measure how the system can survive in an environment it hasn't been designed for. Still if I had been blindly following the signals, I would have made small losses, or small gains like I did once you recognize that you are in a consolidation zone like now but that's not really relevant.

The important thing here is to recognize early enough these kinds of markets and adapt your trading, not your system, accordingly.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #824
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 6, 2020 1:09am | Edited 9:22am
I was thinking that the break would appear more by the end of the week than today but not, it broke both the triangle and channel consolidation zones during this Asian session. Unfortunately I couldn't enter earlier as I was asleep, but now that it has broken those consolidation zones it forces me to be in as such a bullish move can't be ignored. I have just adjusted my lot size (risk) accordingly as we are 50 pips from the SMA. Planing to add more when it retraces to near SMA.

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Edit : I took the profits and entered short near at 1.1330 as I expect now a retracement to or near SMA.
I'm just trading the retracement here, not a position, my sentiment goes with the signal, bullish, and I plan to enter again long at or near SMA...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #825
  • Jul 9, 2020 12:17am Jul 9, 2020 12:17am
Happy for yor profits. Time to fold. Take your money off. Stay green.
  • #826
  • Jul 9, 2020 1:44am Jul 9, 2020 1:44am
Quoting bpola
Happy for yor profits. Time to fold. Take your money off. Stay green.
If I had followed that kind of advice in the past, I would never had made the kind of substantial jump in equity that I made to grow the account from 1-2K to 10K and would still be trading around 1-3k today.

I don't trade to make quick 1 day profits, I trade a system that follows trends, so I will take what the trend will give, no more, no less. If the floating profits are substantial, it's only because my entry was over-sized, nothing else.

I don't want to look arrogant, because really I'm not, there is one thing that I'm learning to do also which is to not have fear, fear of a loss, fear of leaving money on the table, fear of anything else, I just trade and focus on the system the best I can, being aware of what happens and making the less mistakes possible, that's all.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #827
  • Jul 9, 2020 2:26pm Jul 9, 2020 2:26pm
Quoting broketrader
{quote} If I had followed that kind of advice in the past, I would never had made the kind of substantial jump in equity that I made to grow the account from 1-2K to 10K and would still be trading around 1-3k today. I don't trade to make quick 1 day profits, I trade a system that follows trends, so I will take what the trend will give, no more, no less. If the floating profits are substantial, it's only because my entry was over-sized, nothing else. I don't want to look arrogant, because really I'm not, there is one thing that I'm learning to do...
Good to know you want to maintain discipline.

When should we exit trades based on this system?

Thanks. Your suggestions would be appreciated.
  • #828
  • Jul 10, 2020 2:02am Jul 10, 2020 2:02am
Tough to watch you implode. Why did you go so aggressive with sizing?
  • #829
  • Edited 12:55pm Jul 10, 2020 12:37pm | Edited 12:55pm
A few weeks ago I wrote:
Quoting emmzett
...there's only one additional thing we may be allowed to pay attention to, and that's context...Context in the view of this system is USDX...the big picture comes from there...
You answered with Mark Douglas:
Quoting broketrader
...below is an extract from "Trading in the Zone" from Mark Douglas, this book is nothing more than my trading Bible, already read it 4 times and will read it more for sure, for me it's worth its weight in gold and even more and I can't advise you enough to get it...
This is not personally directed at you but let me respond with Mark Douglas, too, when he was working at Merrill Lynch. That was the same time when after 1 year of trading he had blown all his accounts and decided to turn to writing and start selling books instead:

"All customers are terminal. Our job is to make their trading as comfortable as we can, until they expire."
- Mark Douglas at Merrill Lynch -

People stop following their rules but violating rules is not the point I would like to make. The point I'd like to make is:
It was believing of "trading in the zone" that caused this losses.
It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
  • #830
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:58pm Jul 10, 2020 4:58pm
Something bad happened and I have no excuses or answers yet for it, I only know that I'm the only responsible of it.
I traded like there was no tomorrow and I really don't know why so I need to understand that, everyone has his demons to fight.

I have to get back the spirit I had in the beginning.
Maybe find out alternative ways to get consistent small profits instead of trying to make a home run on every trade.

The day has been catastrophic but the story for sure won't finish here.

A picture for the records.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #831
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:53pm Jul 10, 2020 5:53pm
Quoting broketrader
Something bad happened and I have no excuses or answers yet for it, I only know that I'm the only responsible of it. I traded like there was no tomorrow and I really don't know why so I need to understand that, everyone has his demons to fight. I have to get back the spirit I had in the beginning. Maybe find out alternative ways to get consistent small profits instead of trying to make a home run on every trade. The day has been catastrophic but the story for sure won't finish here. A picture for the records. {image}
« A money wound is not deadly », you still have more than your deposit, read trading in the zone once more, especially the risk management part and start again with much lower leverage/risk per trade.

Wish you all the best.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #832
  • Jul 11, 2020 3:39am Jul 11, 2020 3:39am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} « A money wound is not deadly », you still have more than your deposit, read trading in the zone once more, especially the risk management part and start again with much lower leverage/risk per trade. Wish you all the best.
I know, at least I have that safeguard rule now, which is to not completely blow the account when I'm wrong.
Trading in the zone is always on my pdf reader on my desk. Thanks for the encouraging words, I'm cleaning up things and will restart with the basics as I describe below.
...
...
One good sleep night has been enough to understand what happened and today things are finally clear. I was under the influence of the 4h flag which was first broken to the upside and then tested, from there I just wanted to go long whatever my signal was telling because I though the price would explode to the upside. I was on the right side for a few moments but after, we all now what happened. So in fact I have been using that flag like a filter and it has totally biased my judgment while at the same time I was telling to everyone here to not add filters or anything as the system is good as it is. I have been violating myself the exact rule I was preaching here, my only excuse is that I wasn't aware of it.

Here is the flag.
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My corrective action will be to consider patterns as indicators and once they are in that family to just ignore them as my trading is based on the indicator I use in my system NOT other indicators.

The proof of how blind I was yesterday, is my current long trade.

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I should have entered short where indicated in the chart, so how is it that I'm long ?

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Remove all higher time frame flags, trends, etc and stay on the 1H chart with the only system I need
Welcome back on earth !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #833
  • Jul 11, 2020 3:47am Jul 11, 2020 3:47am
Quoting broketrader
Something bad happened and I have no excuses or answers yet for it, I only know that I'm the only responsible of it. I traded like there was no tomorrow and I really don't know why so I need to understand that, everyone has his demons to fight. I have to get back the spirit I had in the beginning. Maybe find out alternative ways to get consistent small profits instead of trying to make a home run on every trade. The day has been catastrophic but the story for sure won't finish here. A picture for the records. {image}
If you use averaging what I see in your trades history then consider cashout frequently. Because the martingale/averaging/grid will fail 100% in the long run at some point. But it is ok to use those techniques but not with all your capital.

If you have capital 1000 usd then split it into 10 parts. Put in working account 100 usd and trade as you trade (you did quite well ). When reaching 1000 usd then cashout and restart again but this time with 200 usd. Reach 2000 usd - cashout and continue with 400 usd, cashout then when 4000 usd. And so on...

This is just an example - think how to split your capital and when to cash out. You have to ensure to have at least X attempts (10 maybe?) to restart even when blowing out the entire account. Don't keep all your money on account - use wallet to keep capital safe.

For example, you might lose the entire account 3 times in a row but you still will have 7 attempts. Ok if you lose 6 times in a row... well then need to improve trading skills before you continue (with the rest 4 attempts you still have)...

When using averaging always be ready to wipe out the entire account. That's not a tragedy when the rest of your capital is in the wallet.
  • #834
  • Jul 11, 2020 4:29am Jul 11, 2020 4:29am
Quoting joyny
{quote} If you use averaging what I see in your trades history then consider cashout frequently. Because the martingale/averaging/grid will fail 100% in the long run at some point. But it is ok to use those techniques but not with all your capital. If you have capital 1000 usd then split it into 10 parts. Put in working account 100 usd and trade as you trade (you did quite well ). When reaching 1000 usd then cashout and restart again but this time with 200 usd. Reach 2000 usd - cashout and continue with 400 usd, cashout then when 4000 usd. And...
I don't use averaging, grid or martingale so you missed totally what I do, thus your post is totally irrelevant and useless.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #835
  • Jul 11, 2020 4:58am Jul 11, 2020 4:58am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I don't use averaging, grid or martingale so you missed totally what I do, thus your post is totally irrelevant and useless.
On July 9 opened deal with 10 lots after going in drawdown. Then again several deals with 5 lots. Please explain what it was a technique you applied then?
  • #836
  • Jul 11, 2020 6:30am Jul 11, 2020 6:30am
Quoting joyny
{quote} On July 9 opened deal with 10 lots after going in drawdown. Then again several deals with 5 lots. Please explain what it was a technique you applied then?
I was only expecting a rebound from the top of the flag as illustrated in post #832 and I went aggressive because I though the rebound would be significant and this totally ignoring my system. I don't use any grid or averaging calculation or whatsoever, nothing of that.

Normally I should be trading trends on the 1H time frame, the start of those trends being signaled by the system as explained in post #1.
The risk I take on every trade is at my own discretion and don't need to be discussed here.

That's all, my last trades are completely dumb, so son't try to understand or get anything logical from them, except that they were completely out of what I should have been doing, again as I say in post #832.

Again, I think that my trading is good (of course I don't talk about the last 2 days), and that my money management is good as well even if it's a bit aggressive, otherwise I wouldn't have grown an account from 1K to 10K so I don't want to put everything through the window. But all this is true only if I trade my system as I have designed it and don't deviate from it so the only things that I have to put through the window are the time frames higher than 1H and all patterns without exception.

And that's what I have just done, from now on, I will exclusively look at 1H charts, nothing else, having on them my system and the trends.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #837
  • Jul 11, 2020 6:36am Jul 11, 2020 6:36am
I sign with that sentence at every post and yet I have forgotten it.

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication

So from now on, let's keep things simple and clear !

1 Pair, 1 Time frame, 1 system, 1 trend at a time, keep everything else outside !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #838
  • Jul 11, 2020 10:07am Jul 11, 2020 10:07am
broketrader, You are a good trader. Believe in yourself, as we believe in you! You will succeed!
  • #839
  • Jul 11, 2020 10:37am Jul 11, 2020 10:37am
I love that statement !!!

SOOO hard to teach people to stick to that.
  • #840
  • Edited 2:22pm Jul 11, 2020 10:59am | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I know, at least I have that safeguard rule now, which is to not completely blow the account when I'm wrong. Trading in the zone is always on my pdf reader on my desk. Thanks for the encouraging words, I'm cleaning up things and will restart with the basics as I describe below. ... ... One good sleep night has been enough to understand what happened and today things are finally clear. I was under the influence of the 4h flag which was first broken to the upside and then tested, from there I just wanted to go long whatever my signal was telling...

If I may, with all due respect, I don’t think the flag pattern was a bad idea, it reacted very well on the H1, for example the bounce on the lower channel on June 22, then the bounce on the upper channel on June 23 followed by another on July 2 and then on the broken upper channel on July 7, all would have produced great r:r ratio returns but one. I do not see anything wrong by spotting h4/daily patterns and trading them on the H1. Of course the hit rate might be smaller but the high reward versus risk largely outweigh that. Indeed if such was not your plan and losses occurred perhaps you shouldn’t have deviated, only you can tell.

But the problem is that such mistakes are gonna happen in discretionary trading, also in discretionary trading we have the tendency to blame the loosing trades while you wouldn’t (haven’t ?) if they were winnings.

I think the biggest problem was the leverage/risk being too big on your last trades and that triggered emotions which brought a downward spiral that almost blew up all the account.

Mistakes, different conditions, etc... are gonna happen, the only way to prevent it is to use low risk on EVERY trade.

In conclusion I think that your trading skill is good just the risk management was off on the last few loosing trades.

Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
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