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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #761
  • Edited 2:15am Jun 9, 2020 2:04am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting broketrader
Added the remaining part of the 30% on SMA touch, SL 50 pips away...
Very nice SMA crossing candle showing the signal with its blue light for the first time but given the recent price action, it remains to be seen if it's genuine or not...

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Edit: And for those interested, I'm updating on post #1 in real time my trade ticket that I introduced in post #744, I will post a closed ticked when the trend/trade is terminated.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #762
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:15am Jun 9, 2020 3:15am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Very nice SMA crossing candle showing the signal with its blue light for the first time but given the recent price action, it remains to be seen if it's genuine or not... {image} Edit: And for those interested, I'm updating on post #1 in real time my trade ticket that I introduced in post #744, I will post a closed ticked when the trend/trade is terminated.
im in
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #763
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:36am Jun 9, 2020 4:36am
I'm in too!
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  • #764
  • Edited 9:48am Jun 9, 2020 9:31am | Edited 9:48am
Each losing trade must be an occasion to learn something, get new ideas...

Thanks to this trade, I'm taking away two things, of which the second one I'm specially proud ;-)

1) The initial partial entry must be calculated using the previous swing plus some margin instead of the arbitrary 50 pips. In my case, that would have been 30% of 1K over 120 pips = 300/(120*10) = 0.25 lots

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2) To preserve the account and eventually financially manage a losing streak, when a trade is a loser, as maybe it will be the case here, it's only allowed to trade the remaining of the initial risk of the first trade in the next signal. For example, If I lose these 30% (300$) or whatever in this trade, only the remaining (700$) will be allowed as risk for the next trade, so as we repeat the process, we initially risk 30% of 700 etc. This process is repeated until we get a successful exit.

Cost of this lesson: 177$, plus maybe 122$
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #765
  • Jun 9, 2020 9:40am Jun 9, 2020 9:40am
Quoting broketrader
Each losing trade must be an occasion to learn something, get new ideas... Thanks to this trade, I'm taking away two things, of which the second one I'm specially proud ;-) 1) The initial partial entry must be calculated using the previous swing plus some margin instead of the arbitrary 50 pips. In my case, that would have been 30% of 1K over 120 pips = 300/(120*10) = 0.25 lots {image} 2) To preserve the account and eventually financially manage a losing streak, when a trade is a loser, as maybe it will be the case here, it's only allowed to trade...
Yes, the red line is the correct SL i think..

P.S 5 minuts ago i have make the same short channel
  • #766
  • Jun 9, 2020 9:45am Jun 9, 2020 9:45am
Quoting davemiata
{quote} Yes, the red line is the correct SL i think.. P.S 5 minuts ago i have make the same short channel
Yes, and for the channel, often I draw patterns and on higher time frames as well but it's just to see where I am, I don't trade those.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #767
  • Jun 9, 2020 10:02am Jun 9, 2020 10:02am
First: Thank you for this thread here. Its a great system. I know, here we are only talking about EURUSD, but in Gold it works amazing today. I hope, EURUSD will move direction in the next hours again, so we are loosing not to much money.

I think the channel could be a bullish flag - so i hope we can get out of this trade when its going down to the other Channel-Side. Again: Thank you for your work here. Its the first trading-system that makes sense for me.
  • #768
  • Jun 9, 2020 11:08am Jun 9, 2020 11:08am
Not important losing position it's Part of trading, the method is working good, position setup was perfect to short
good luck
  • #769
  • Jun 9, 2020 11:16am Jun 9, 2020 11:16am
Quoting CitizenX78
First: Thank you for this thread here. Its a great system. I know, here we are only talking about EURUSD, but in Gold it works amazing today. I hope, EURUSD will move direction in the next hours again, so we are loosing not to much money. I think the channel could be a bullish flag - so i hope we can get out of this trade when its going down to the other Channel-Side. Again: Thank you for your work here. Its the first trading-system that makes sense for me.
You are welcome!

Just two things:

 

  1. It's good to know from the beginning how much we risk so in case the trade is a loser, we know from start and accept how much we could lose, then no need to have hope, fear or anything...
  2. You don't read me or you trade another system. I don't mind about the bullish flag, again I don't trade any other pattern that appears on top of my system, I just draw them for the fun. Now, if you are short and price goes down and you exit while the signal is still blue, then you're simply not trading the system but instead deviating from it.

My trade plan remains as originally, as long as I see blue, I will stay short until stopped out. If I'm stopped out and price falls again to SMA and signal is still blue (short) I will enter again short 30% of remaining risk, from there, if eventually and finally we go south and then retrace to SMA I will complete my (short) position.
All this remains valid until the signal color changes to green (long).

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #770
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:46pm Jun 9, 2020 4:46pm
Quoting broketrader
...The initial partial entry must be calculated...
To preserve the account and eventually financially manage a losing streak...
Additional "filters" will improve/fix only the last loser. They will not help the system in general. There's only one additional thing we may be allowed to pay attention to, and that's context. Context in the view of this system is USDX and EURX (which EURUSD is a mirror of). The big picture comes from there, and that's the only picture we may get additional hints from for our trade decisions.
It takes blood, sweat and enough tears to wash away the blood.
  • #771
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:36am Jun 10, 2020 12:36am
Quoting emmzett
{quote} Additional "filters" will improve/fix only the last loser. They will not help the system in general. There's only one additional thing we may be allowed to pay attention to, and that's context. Context in the view of this system is USDX and EURX (which EURUSD is a mirror of). The big picture comes from there, and that's the only picture we may get additional hints from for our trade decisions.
A filter is some additional criteria you add to the system to enter or not the trade, an additional variable.
So you misunderstood me or I didn't explained well because these are not!

The trade is entered purely on signal, nothing else, when I say "the initial partial" means it's part of the same trade or setup, just that I cut it in two 30% and 70% to better manage my risk.

For the other sentence, when I say "To preserve..." it's also pure risk/money management... to eventually limit the losses in case I would be entering a flat market with several consecutive swings to the other side of the SMA. Reducing the size when you get a loser is money management, it changes nothing to the system itself.

As for the context, in the beginning I was also looking at DXY like most people do which is also a mirror and even to other pairs but I soon realized that there was no need to look elsewhere as all the information needed is in the pair you trade. I think that looking elsewhere is just distraction but this is only my opinion, nothing else, and not saying it's bad, anyone has to do whatever he needs if that helps him in feeling better when he trades, that's part of everyone own technique.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #772
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:56am Jun 10, 2020 12:56am
And to emphasize, what I just said about the context, below is an extract from "Trading in the Zone" from Mark Douglas, this book is nothing more than my trading Bible, already read it 4 times and will read it more for sure, for me it's worth its weight in gold and even more and I can't advise you enough to get it and read it if you haven't already.

This is what he says about context...

"
An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

Creating consistency requires that you completely accept that trading isn't about hoping, wondering, or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work. The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment. When you use "other" information, outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade, you are adding random variables to your trading regime.

Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to determine what works and what doesn't. If you're never certain about the viability of your edge, you won't feel too confident about it. To whatever degree you lack confidence, you will experience fear. The irony is, you will be afraid of random, inconsistent results, without realizing that your random, inconsistent approach is creating exactly what you are afraid of. On the other hand, if you believe that an edge is simply a higher probability of one thing happening over another, and there's a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge, why would you gather "other" evidence for or against a trade? To a trader operating out of these two beliefs, gathering "other" evidence wouldn't make any sense.
"
Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #773
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:05am Jun 10, 2020 7:05am
Just got the long signal now and should be cancelling my short but given the distance from SMA I can't consider entering long now but only on a retracement which could be the opportunity to eventually close that short so I will let it open until it's stopped out .

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #774
  • Jun 10, 2020 1:31pm Jun 10, 2020 1:31pm
Been stopped out, the current 0.1 sell is just speculation, I'm risking 50$ on it, 10% of my available risk for the next trade...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #775
  • Jun 11, 2020 2:48pm Jun 11, 2020 2:48pm
Triple top followed by a new signal, let's see if this is the right one.
When we break previous low at 1.1238 we will know that we are in a new trend...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #776
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:26pm Jun 11, 2020 3:26pm
Finally in the EURUSD!
  • #777
  • Jun 12, 2020 1:28am Jun 12, 2020 1:28am
I think this time we are locked to the downside.
I still would like 1-2 bearish hours to confirm but I profited from that small retracement to complete my position, I'm fully in with 2.5 lots. Also entered old friend EJ but with very small and limited to 50 pips risk.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #778
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:48pm Jun 12, 2020 4:48pm
What a mess I did to enter this one

Trying to anticipate at the top instead of patiently wait the cross of the SMA and some more clear price action like the one I saw once that the SMA was crossed.
I really need to engineer something to avoid this!

At least I did well entering at the retracement just below the SMA, with a far bigger size than originally planned but this was because of the mess I did initially so Sunday I will be studying again my entries to avoid this in the future.

As for the rest of the trade, that pin-bar that crossed the SMA was the signal, I entered right after and was watching closely because an hourly close above the SMA again would have forced me to close at least partially. Hopefully, this time the price respected that barrier, made a new low and got even the previous low that generated the previous fake signal.

Trend 20-17 is finally gone and 20-18 is here but it's a bit early to draw any definitive trend, thus the dotted line.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #779
  • Jun 12, 2020 6:28pm Jun 12, 2020 6:28pm
Looking like it will melt some next week
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  • #780
  • Jun 13, 2020 2:41am Jun 13, 2020 2:41am
Quoting broketrader
What a mess I did to enter this one Trying to anticipate at the top instead of patiently wait the cross of the SMA and some more clear price action like the one I saw once that the SMA was crossed. I really need to engineer something to avoid this! At least I did well entering at the retracement just below the SMA, with a far bigger size than originally planned but this was because of the mess I did initially so Sunday I will be studying again my entries to avoid this in the future. As for the rest of the trade, that pin-bar that...
congrats for your numbers bro!
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
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