Daily Trading Ideas

in process

THE UNKNOWNS OF FOREX TRADING ( A PERSPECTIVE OF GBPUSD)
The alarming rate of losses in forex trading is worrisome, studies have shown that 75-85% of retail forex traders lose money.
We are all provided with arrays of analysis to evaluate in order to make our trading decisions. These analysis are TECHNICAL, FUNDAMENTAL and SENTIMENT analysis, which must all align to make good trading decisions.

We are still confronted with our own INTERNAL ANALYSIS which has to do with RISK AND EMOTIONS MANAGEMENT. In all we have 5 major Analysis to contend with and all must be accurately applied to stand a Chance of success.

Talking about TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, we are provided with many tools which spans from indicators, oscillators, lines, moving averages and the popular Japanese candle sticks. All these tools aid our buying/selling/EXITING decision making yet we still have inconsistencies in results, as they all have their flaws.

Since Technical table is visible representation of prices, we all apply the basic rules of BUY AT THE BOTTOM and SELL AT THE TOP. We all trade the prices in front of us and most of the time use different time frames to determine whether the price is at the Top, Middle or Bottom. What trader A sees as bottom price to be bought, trader B will see as Top price to be sold. I have seen several instances where the price will be extremely oversold and yet recover up a little and resume grinding lower, also seen many instances where the price will be extremely overbought and yet keep shooting up to heaven.

Since it is the PRICE PUZZLE we all want to solve and these time frames and tools provided to us are still having flaws, HOW DO WE SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF PRICE?

Talking about FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS which has to do with study of economic and political news which are invisible forces that prompt movement in the Technical Chat. Our renowned forexfactory website give their utmost best to inform us ahead of some major news release like Nonfarm, FOMC, BOE, CLAMANT COUNT CHANGE, BREXIT BREAKING NEWS, G7 MEETINGS etcetera which are some of the most influential news that sparks volatility.

The forecasts are mostly provided and some wild moves do occur during the releases.
In fact milliseconds before these releases, the BIG CORPORATIONS often pull the trigger with their algos and our not so friendly brokers will also increase their spread. Sometimes good data for the currency can lead to weakness of the currency which will come with intelligent explanation of 'BUY THE RUMOUR, SELL THE FACT' or 'ALREADY PRICED IN'.

Do we actually make our decisions on unpredictable outcome of the major news that sometimes move contrary to the readings and also get traded milliseconds before retail traders see the result?

Talking about SENTIMENT ANALYSIS, we are often confronted with market perception of the current price and noises as regards the next direction of the price. The views of Central Banks about their currency matter, the view of the opposing Central Bank about their currency also matter, each Central Bank will deliberately verbally or stealthily intervene into the currency market to meet their economic needs.
They hold currency meetings behind closed doors and sometimes reveal their dissatisfaction when they feel one of the members is deliberately weakening her currency, hence you start hearing about potential currency wars...

Retail traders also have Their perception about the level of the price which is usually known based on buying and selling percentage from one website/thread/broker/forum to the other. These perceptions directly and indirectly influence our decisions. The big question is whose PERCEPTION and SENTIMENT of the PRICE is relevant towards your DECISION MAKING?

Talking about RISK MANAGEMENT, a vital requirement which must be mastered to the fullest to guide against loss of capital and to keep profit. In a market that has daily trade volume of around $6 trillion, how much can your own capital influence the direction of the price? since prices are usually moved by volume of demand and supply forces, how do you determine the amount of money you should stake on a trade if the extent of risk is not Clearly defined or known even before the trade position is opened? Failure to apply proper risk management is recipe for disaster which can render the smooth application of the above mentioned analysis useless. How then do you work your risk management plan out considering capital size and trading style vary from one trader to another?

Talking about EMOTIONS MANAGEMENT, the second by second fluctuations of the price against or for our trades will affect our minds positively or negatively. How do you deal with consecutive losses? How do you feel after consecutive profits? How do you react after realizing your trade methodologies are no longer giving the desired result? Do you start to create another methodology all over again or try to modify?

CALL TO ACTION (MERGING ALL TOGETHER)
We all trade the PRICE which is the exchange rate and apply different system to DETERMINE what to do with the PRICE...
PRICES are so inconsistent and erratic hence we consult some or all of the above analysis to help us out and yet the failure rate is still very high (75-85% losses). This failure rate despite different approach means there is more to trading than most of us understand and we need to think outside of the box to succeed.

Below I will show 2011 to 2020 prices and ranges of GBPUSD to Buttress the unpredictable nature of prices we all Trade. The highest price of year A can be the lowest Price of year C, how then do we decide whether the price is LOW to be bought or HIGH to be sold?

2011 = High 1.6744 - 1.5272 Low (1472 pips range)
2012. = High 1.6308 - 1.5235 Low (1073 pips range)
2013. = High 1.6577 - 1.4813 Low (1764 pips range)
2014. = High 1.7189 - 1.5485 Low (1704 pips range)
2015. = High 1.5928 - 1.4565 Low (1363 pips range)
2017. = High 1.3555 - 1.1986 Low (1670 pips range)
2018 = High 1.4375 - 1.2475 Low (1900 pips range)
2019 = High 1.3513 - 1.1957 Low (1556 pips range)
2020 = High 1.3229 - 1.1409 Low (1820 pips range) so far*

Key Observation:
* 2011 - 2020 so far has (1.7189 - 1.1409) 5780 pips range,
* 2011 - 2020 so far has (1900 - 1073) 827 range difference
* Maximum range (2018) is 1900 pips
* Average range (2019) is 1556 pips
* Minimum range (2012) is 1073 pips

2018 high (1.4375) is not up to 2013 Low(1.4813)
2017 high (1.3656) is not up to 2015 low (1.4565)
2020 high so far (1.3229)is not to 2012 low (1.5235)
^ Range difference from 2011 to 2020 is 827
^ Pips difference from 2011 to 2020 is 5780

Prices are inconsistent while Ranges are consistent.
There is a need to find what prices respond to which will make the synchronization of these various analysis easier.
In my humble view from research, prices are very inconsistent and erratic, and we are provided with tools and analysis models which respond to PRICES which in itself is difficult to Guage.

Until we find what PRICES RESPOND TO, it is then we can get that advantage of consistency and reduce loss percentage to the minimum level.

I hope this is useful.

Cheers.
Georginson.

4

testing..
let see fly or back inside range again

Wow went to do something during pre session
not bad it fly
float green at GU with 40-50 pips and EU 20-30 pips

⛏

2600 please

Enough for me for today
This made my Day

I see hurdles on our way: 1.2520 and 1.2552. ruling out any surprise tweets, we should approach 1.26

Some hammers for EU as well pls. You still holding?

this level break , I think should heading until 2580,
Then 2580 need to break first then should be above 2600 ,
i still holding for retest 2800 if possible
step by step

🖐 + me

Lets hope the 15m bear setup is invalid. Dont want any interruptions.

Whats your tp? Idk why dont feel much confident with EU....

I not sure, will try hold, hope it back above 1300 soon,
1500 hvnt retest, if strong enough with monthly, retest is possible, but dont look so far first, wait and see it can retest 1350/1400 or not first.
my chart 15m no set up for sell yet

15m in process on my chart, if this candle closes green, lets see if it comes in play.

We need to careful about GU and EU 4H there,
and dxy 4H , seem it rejected from 97.08 , i think is good sign with the 4H closed just now, but still need careful

edit: mine no set up

I lost confidence on this bull trade and exit with 20 green pips.
Will b reliaded at 1 hr setup again

we breaking now 2530

gbp should slow down soon, gbpcad looks like the best pair to short the pound, just hit daily r3 and we have some cad news in 1 hour

Short Usd better