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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #3,541
  • Jul 3, 2020 5:54pm Jul 3, 2020 5:54pm
Parisboy have you ever try to repilcate the type of entry that hurst showed in the "profit of magic". If i have understand it right he went in trade after 2 VTL broke . Price still came back to low of second vtl but after that it went straight up.
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I point out this because compare to your logic entry, he was able to join before the start of the next cycle. Like he showed here.
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Has also anyone found any other trades of hurst? like this one?
  • #3,542
  • Edited 2:00pm Jul 4, 2020 4:37am | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting stoxos.
Parisboy have you ever try to repilcate the type of entry that hurst showed in the "profit of magic". If i have understand it right he went in trade after 2 VTL broke . Price still came back to low of second vtl but after that it went straight up.{image} I point out this because compare to your logic entry, he was able to join before the start of the next cycle. Like he showed here.{image} Has also anyone found any other trades of hurst? like this one?
stoxos I do it all the time !

stoxos I am glad that you study Hurst in a detailed way. That the best way to learn. Open a demo account and practice Hurst tools. You will acquire the methodology and observe its limitation.

Anyway your observations are biased.

you did not show us what Hurst wrote before he posted Figure IV-9
  • #3,543
  • Edited 8:25am Jul 4, 2020 4:50am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting stoxos.
Parisboy have you ever try to repilcate the type of entry that hurst showed in the "profit of magic". If i have understand it right he went in trade after 2 VTL broke . Price still came back to low of second vtl but after that it went straight up.{image} I point out this because compare to your logic entry, he was able to join before the start of the next cycle. Like he showed here.{image} Has also anyone found any other trades of hurst? like this one?
Hurst posted Figure IV-6.

Here you have key informations :

a) According to his cycle count Hurst suspected a Low within the shaded area. Hurst wrote "the shaded area represents a spread of uncertainty over time and price as to when we expect prices to turn up. "

b) Moreover Hurst blue and ocre Envelopes seem to build a "Nest of Lows" in the middle / center of gravity of this Shaded Area. ( Principle of Synchronicity)

To summarize : Hurst BEFORE Price Action build a Low in this shaded area has a high probability scenario regarding where and when Price Action will build its future Low noted Low L and turns up (may be ....)

Hence we just have to observe Price Action developments relatively to this scenario

What Hurst wrote at the time he published this chart :


"EDGE-BAND TRANSACTION TIMING


Let's start where we left off with Gruen Industries.

In Figure IV-6the results of the channel analysis are shown.

This time the plot is of daily data, with the envelopes developed on the weekly plots superimposed.

The shaded area represents a spread of uncertainty over time and price as to when we expect prices to turn up.

The center lines in this area represent a time and price target-essentially our best estimate of each.

Now start looking at the price motion for peaks along which to draw trend lines.

The flat peak of the current downtrend occurred two and a half weeks ago. This will be one point on one downtrend line.

A second peak appears to be in the making as of two days ago. However, it is not certain as yet since a lower low has not followed. So at this point in time we cannot draw any downtrend line with confidence.
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  • #3,544
  • Edited 7:53am Jul 4, 2020 5:05am | Edited 7:53am
Convergence between the End Point of the Descending VTL in red and the forecasted Low of the blue Envelope in the vicinity of the Lower Limit of the ocre Envelope increase the probability of realisation of this suspected Low

What Hurst wrote at the time he published this chart :

Two more days pass as in Figure IV-7.

Two solid peaks are now evident, and an initial downtrend line is drawn which leads directly into the heart of our price turn zone.

If no other trend lines form before, we determine that we will buy the stock as soon as we are within the time boundaries of the turn zone and prices break through this trend line on the upside.

Two more days pass, putting us into the time region of interest.
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  • #3,545
  • Edited 7:52am Jul 4, 2020 6:33am | Edited 7:52am
Commentaries coming soon !

What Hurst wrote at the time he published this chart :

Two more days pass, putting us into the time region of interest.

As shown in Figure IV-8, a still shorter duration peak has formed, establishing a second and steeper downtrend line.
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  • #3,546
  • Edited 6:53am Jul 4, 2020 6:37am | Edited 6:53am
Once again super informative learning material, given free and any questions answered, not sure what else anyone could expect if this style of trading appeals to you.
As always all I can only say is,
Thank you
Dave
ps
Our friend Sohocool as made producing the Envelopes relatively simple on MT4 and FLDs can easily be added as well, explained how in previous posts, I think although not perfect but good enough to put the ideas into practice
  • #3,547
  • Jul 4, 2020 7:28am Jul 4, 2020 7:28am
Quoting parisboy
Commentaries coming soon ! {image}
chapter 4 page 81 the profit magic of stock transaction timing

ive always wanted to apply this to my charts in mt4 but not yet done so

good work parisboy loving your work
  • #3,548
  • Jul 4, 2020 7:31am Jul 4, 2020 7:31am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} stoxos I do it all the time ! stoxos I am glad that you study Hurst in a detailed way. That the best way to learn. Open a demo account and practice Hurst tools. You will acquire the methdology and observe its limitation. Anyway your observations are biased. you did not show us what Hurst wrote before he posted Figure IV-9
for me in profit magic timing chapter 4 was the one chapter that made sense.

for me this was the key chapter
  • #3,549
  • Edited 7:55am Jul 4, 2020 7:38am | Edited 7:55am
What Hurst wrote at the time he published this chart :

If no other trend lines form before, we will now buy the stock at any moment it breaks this trend line on the upside - provided time has not passed so that we've exited the time zone on the far side.

Needless to say, our envelope analysis should not show violation either. Everything looks ripe and A-OK.

Channel analysis predicted prices would be about here at about this time.

A series of steepening trend lines has formed.

We should be at or very near the bottom of all the multiplicity of channels that can be drawn.

We should expect to have all the probabilities on our side if we use a break in this Trend Line as a valid buy signal.

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  • #3,550
  • Edited 12:40pm Jul 4, 2020 8:06am | Edited 12:40pm
But notice what Hurst wrote also :


The very next day prices traded completely above our Valid Trend Line (see Figure IV-9).

This means that the stock opened at a price which was above the Trend Line.

This was our signal to place an immediate order to buy at market !

Let's say we got our order executed at mid-range for the day, or 7.50 .

The subsequent rise in price to 13in the next 65 days is quite dramatic, isn't it ?

This is an example of "edge-band" transaction timing.

Notice the fact (from Figure IV-9) that the price of the stock idled more or less in the purchase area for nearly two weeks before making an appreciable move upward.

The correct question is " would have you the nerves to stay in range 15 minutes, 15 hours, 15 days " waiting "an appreciable move upward ?"
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  • #3,551
  • Jul 5, 2020 5:58am Jul 5, 2020 5:58am
wave in wave out, it is just smaller fractal waving into larger fractal

band to band just bank in either side of the band

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just manage your risk and wave along
  • #3,552
  • Jul 5, 2020 6:32am Jul 5, 2020 6:32am
sorry obv question

your using 3 channels

didnt hurst use 2? day and week?

ive studied ict and he mentions triple screen as in 3 tf
direction
setup
execution

so i can see the pro in 3 channels
  • #3,553
  • Jul 5, 2020 6:40am Jul 5, 2020 6:40am
Quoting devontrader
sorry obv question your using 3 channels didnt hurst use 2? day and week? ive studied ict and he mentions triple screen as in 3 tf direction setup execution so i can see the pro in 3 channels
Please read post 1 & 2
  • #3,554
  • Jul 5, 2020 6:57am Jul 5, 2020 6:57am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Please read post 1 & 2
will do thanks dave
  • #3,555
  • Jul 5, 2020 8:17am Jul 5, 2020 8:17am
Quoting devontrader
sorry obv question your using 3 channels didnt hurst use 2? day and week? ive studied ict and he mentions triple screen as in 3 tf direction setup execution so i can see the pro in 3 channels
who is "ict" ?
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  • #3,556
  • Jul 5, 2020 8:25am Jul 5, 2020 8:25am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} who is "ict" ? {image} {image} {image} {image}
ict is innercircletrader michael huddleston
he is on youtube and almost 30yrs pro trader ex market maker etc....he knows how the algo works and how the charts and price move...recently publically turned 5k into 5mill real money live in 8 weeks to prove his concepts work
  • #3,557
  • Jul 5, 2020 12:43pm Jul 5, 2020 12:43pm
a long time ago,,i cam across hurst and the profit magic book,,,,i enquired about getting his book and was told it was no longer in print but should i want one it would cost over £700 to print,,,so i went to amazon and got a good quality 2nd hand one for £60
little do i know now you can down load it as a pdf

i wanted to make the channels into my chart so spent hours finding the right indicator for mt4 and finally i did it

i use a 20 period for my channels and have always questioned if it was right,,i use 20 as pro traders use 20,,50 ,100 and 200 moving averages on there charts.

ive played with the idea of maybe longer periods or maybe inner or outer being a bigger period,,,,jury is still out
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  • #3,558
  • Jul 5, 2020 1:10pm Jul 5, 2020 1:10pm
Quoting devontrader
a long time ago,,i cam across hurst and the profit magic book,,,,i enquired about getting his book and was told it was no longer in print but should i want one it would cost over £700 to print,,,so i went to amazon and got a good quality 2nd hand one for £60 little do i know now you can down load it as a pdf i wanted to make the channels into my chart so spent hours finding the right indicator for mt4 and finally i did it i use a 20 period for my channels and have always questioned if it was right,,i use 20 as pro traders use 20,,50 ,100 and 200...
Devon 10 years ago Profit Magic price was around 25 $ on Amazon.

Now 266 euros.

As for Enveloppe period I use 32, 128 and 256 . All divisible by 8

Ask OAPDave why !
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx 6 BUILDING YOUR ENVELOPES 16.pptx   4.5 MB | 304 downloads
File Type: pptx 2 FRACTAL STRUCTURE OF TIME AND PRICE ENGLISH 17.pptx   2.2 MB | 364 downloads
  • #3,559
  • Jul 5, 2020 1:11pm Jul 5, 2020 1:11pm
having 3 channels with period seperators using h1 m15 and m5 you can see the daily direction and align the m15 to execute a m5 entry in a london or new york session

the beauty of hurst
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  • #3,560
  • Jul 5, 2020 1:13pm Jul 5, 2020 1:13pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Devon 10 years ago Profit Magic price was around 25 $ on Amazon. Now 266 euros. As for Enveloppe period I use 32, 128 and 256 . All divisible by 8 Ask OAPDave why ! {file} {file}
having 2 channels would you recommend trying 32 and 128?
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