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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,181
  • Jun 30, 2020 4:35am Jun 30, 2020 4:35am
Quoting Anotan
I ended up getting stopped out of my EU shorts yesterday, but when right back in today, Watching the trigger number from yesterday's highest volume bar there, was a sort of UT which price came off and as price tried to make another run at the trigger number but price couldn't break it and ended up rejecting it. {image}
Just closed 2 out of the 4 trades open which covered about 70% of my losses yesterday, kept the 2 largest trades open and they're set to BE.

Should be able to pull 25-30% return out of this trade no problem. I'm probably done for the rest of the week so take care.
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  • #33,182
  • Jun 30, 2020 7:10am Jun 30, 2020 7:10am
Quick question for anyone.

I should start making regular withdrawals, and from a compounding interest stand point its better to make less frequent withdrawals with more money.

Anyone mind sharing the mental aspect of larger infrequent withdrawals versus frequent smaller withdrawals?

For example lets say that you withdraw 50% of your account every six months, after you withdraw your money and your position size is now cut in half, do you find yourself tempted to over trade trying to get back to your original lot size?
  • #33,183
  • Jun 30, 2020 1:19pm Jun 30, 2020 1:19pm
Quoting Anotan
I should start making regular withdrawals....
A great trader once said, " Don't forget to pay yourself."

While I can't speak to the compounding interest aspect of your question, I can say that I agree that you don't want to forget to pay yourself.

My plan-and I not there yet-is to withdraw funds every month as such:

(numbers are easy math numbers. Settle down, people. LoL)

Start month: 50,000

End month: 100,000

Remove: 50,000 (100,000-50,000)

New month starts with: 50,000

The excess (50,000) is divided in half. 25,000 for living & savings and 25,000 for "drawdown refresh".

Start Month: 50,000

End Month: 35,000

Remove: 0

Add: 15,000 from "drawdown refresh" account.

New month starts with: 50,000 Drawdown refresh : 10,000

I'm really glad you asked this question, as this topic needs to be discussed. Especially in a VSA thread where people are making money hand over fist ( or soon will be).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,184
  • Jun 30, 2020 8:56pm Jun 30, 2020 8:56pm
So here is something I was working on for a while, I've completely abandoned it because it's pretty tedious to watch and trade and I really like my H1 charts with trigger numbers.

This is based completely on Pres78's work, all credit goes to him.

The idea is that you fib the H1 bar during its home session. For this example I'm showing EU yesterday because that what I was trading yesterday. (And got stopped out at BE )

So for Euro I would fib the bar with the biggest increase in volume (not necessarily the highest volume) during the London session, from there I would look for the first reaction to the fib zone and wait for a bar to close above the high/low of the reaction bar (I would want the high/low taken out within 2 bars).

In this example there is a kind of hidden up thrust, IF I was trading this I would want to see the rejection bar with both the open and close in the same zone. So this hidden up thrust has both the open and close in the same zone and it rejects the 50% and the low of this bar is taken out 2 bars later.

From there I would fib the bar that takes out the low of the rejection bar and trade any rejections off of this fib. In this example we see first an up thrust rejecting the 0%, but notice the low is never taken out. Then there is a shakeout, for me this shakeout would be hard to take, the bar is very wide and the RR on this trade would be terrible, but none the less there is a shakeout which the high is taken out and price does rally with out the stoploss being hit. After the shakeout there is an incredibly ugly hidden test, note that both the open and close are above the 100% and the low rejects the 100% this is the only reason why I would consider this a hidden test. But the high is taken out and price does rally from here.

**EDIT** Bad example because the low of the hidden up thrust was taken out 3 bars later...
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  • #33,185
  • Jun 30, 2020 9:03pm Jun 30, 2020 9:03pm
I'm trying to not cherry pick these, this is EU on the Monday, which is just the previous day of the above example.

Same premise, Fib the H1 bar during the euro session with the biggest increase in volume.

We see our first rejection bar with both the open/close in the same zone, which is a test rejecting the 0% and there is a close taking out the high 2 bars later.

Fib the push through bar and there is a hidden test in the US session which price comes off a bit.
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  • #33,186
  • Jul 1, 2020 8:47am Jul 1, 2020 8:47am
Pres78 (Hats off) method for me seems to work best for Indices off the 30 - Mins TF, which is what am using it for ..

Example of this is the US2000, looks kinda like an ART but picked 2 UHVol. Bars off yesterday, drawn in both Yellow and Red .. then I saw how price behaved as it approached (Green Arrow Bars) the RED & YELLOW FIBs .. Finally, when we got to the FIBs 50%, those 2 rejection Bars in the BLUE Rectangle ..

On 5-mins TF, we have Test Bar following evidence of Strength coming in .. the Test Bar High gets broken and is re-tested using Spring / Shakeout ..

Quoting Anotan
I'm trying to not cherry pick these, this is EU on the Monday, which is just the previous day of the above example. Same premise, Fib the H1 bar during the euro session with the biggest increase in volume. We see our first rejection bar with both the open/close in the same zone, which is a test rejecting the 0% and there is a close taking out the high 2 bars later. Fib the push through bar and there is a hidden test in the US session which price comes off a bit. {image}
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  • #33,187
  • Jul 1, 2020 11:26am Jul 1, 2020 11:26am
I love this thread.

Volume Spread Analysis: Always FIBbing, but never lying.

I really do not like the term "VZA". Why? Because I believe the essence of "VZA" is the essence of VSA. When Gavin first introduce the Trigger Number concept, he said he placed a line (or trigger) at the high and the low of the highest volume bar. He then said he sometimes used the close. He did mention the midpoint, but de-emphasized it (this would be an error, and marks the subtle difference between "VZA" and VSA).

Many Wyckoffians talk about the importance of Half Back (HB), or 50% of a trading range. Granted some Fibonacci purists, do not consider 50% a FIB level, but most people do.

"VZA" is consistently placing trigger lines at the High, Low, and HB of the highest volume interval. Whereas VSA is consistently placing trigger lines at the High and Low. And sometimes at the Close. But we know the importance of mid-range closes in VSA. This means that there will naturally be times when the Close should be included in VSA.

I have attached a brilliant video where you can see Lauren and Gregory placing (essentially FIBing) triggers on high volume bars.

Inserted Video


I admit that I am a bit myopic. I do not want to go back 100 bars or more to find the highest volume interval to FIB. What works for me is to FIB the most recent MOMENTUM BAR with climatic volume. This "footprint" bar-volume is the footprint of the Smart Money-gives me the most immediate market-derived anchor.

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Ignore the quarter lines. They're just there because Tom used to place quarter lines in trend channels. The trigger numbers are the High, the Low, and HB. We only want to be taking Longs above HB and Shorts below HB.

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Whatever you want to call it, the process is the same. Wait for price to move above or below the Zone and then come pack towards it and either Test or show No Demand (other signals like 2 bar reversals can be employed) More advanced traders can also take trades at HB.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,188
  • Jul 1, 2020 12:00pm Jul 1, 2020 12:00pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I love this thread. Volume Spread Analysis: Always FIBbing, but never lying. I really do not like the term "VZA". Why? Because I believe the essence of "VZA" is the essence of VSA. When Gavin first introduce the Trigger Number concept, he said he placed a line (or trigger) at the high and the low of the highest volume bar. He then said he sometimes used the close. He did mention the midpoint, but de-emphasized it (this would be an error, and marks the subtle difference between "VZA" and VSA). Many Wyckoffians talk about the importance of Half Back...
Thanks,
video seems not to be working, but i got the idea with your well done explanation.
will consider.
Thanks,
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #33,189
  • Jul 1, 2020 10:28pm Jul 1, 2020 10:28pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} A great trader once said, " Don't forget to pay yourself." While I can't speak to the compounding interest aspect of your question, I can say that I agree that you don't want to forget to pay yourself. My plan-and I not there yet-is to withdraw funds every month as such: (numbers are easy math numbers. Settle down, people. LoL) Start month: 50,000 End month: 100,000 Remove: 50,000 (100,000-50,000) New month starts with: 50,000 The excess (50,000) is divided in half. 25,000 for living & savings and 25,000 for "drawdown refresh". Start Month:...
top advice
  • #33,190
  • Edited Jul 2, 2020 2:54am Jul 1, 2020 10:31pm | Edited Jul 2, 2020 2:54am
Quoting Anotan
Quick question for anyone. I should start making regular withdrawals, and from a compounding interest stand point its better to make less frequent withdrawals with more money. Anyone mind sharing the mental aspect of larger infrequent withdrawals versus frequent smaller withdrawals? For example lets say that you withdraw 50% of your account every six months, after you withdraw your money and your position size is now cut in half, do you find yourself tempted to over trade trying to get back to your original lot size?
even if you ignore me here is my opinion ... lol ...
first set target for your financial freedom e.g. 10 Millions USD, before you get your target withdrawal just 1/10 of equity (for living and saving) the rest just let it run to get your FF target.
start 50k
end month 100k
WD 1/10 of equity - 10k (5k for living 5K for saving) - monthly
start 90k ..... until you get your 1 Mill USD

then add brokers to reduce your risk and split your capital to eg. 5 brokers @200k
use VPS (cloud server) to copy your position
i suggest :
- multiterminal.net for copying software over cloud
- forexvps.net as VPS server
5 broker (or the broker you can trust and with mixed locations and regulations) e.g. :
- Pepperstone, ICmarkets, GlobalPrime (Australia), Dukascopy (Swiss), FxPro (UK)

compounding it until you get your financial freedom target so 11 Millions USD
withdrawal 10 Millions USD use 1 Mill USD for starting ....

now your are free to live and to trade

the next level : increase your next target to 50 Mill USD ... 100 Mill USD .. etc

just take 50 pips daily target you will get your financial freedom less than 3 years, here is the excel calculation. Imho as i see your position and your equity your lot size position is too risky ... i dont know if you are comfortable with such trading style ...but for me as trend follower with VSA and Money management (Balance/50000...see excel) i can trade with relaxed and even without to set SL .... and i can sleep peacefully without worrying so much ... enjoy the life ...just take my smartphone in my pocket .. thats enough.... i just trade one pair GBPUSD just one screen to check ... 1 open position at once but 10 brokers (2-5 accounts each) copying over VPS cloud ....

another goal using different broker and sub accounts are to reduce the lot size per click (faster) and to stay anonymous ...
in the excel file it is just pure calculation just to show how powerful is compounding ....

ok trade safe ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Money_Management.xlsx   59 KB | 312 downloads
  • #33,191
  • Jul 2, 2020 4:39am Jul 2, 2020 4:39am
I've been watching UJ on and off today for price to come down 107.25, but it doesn't look like price is interested in dropping.. It may later in US session but from here going to call it a week and take a long weekend with NFP tomorrow.

I was pretty biased with EU this week thinking price was going to fall which it rallied. Something I need to work on, being too biased with trades.
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  • #33,192
  • Jul 2, 2020 9:33am Jul 2, 2020 9:33am
Hey guys, just wanted to recommend an indicator I discovered and bought, if you are a VSA/Wyckoffian trader, this is a must. It makes the analysis much clearer, way way better than the regular volume that comes with MT4, it is called "True Volume Surrogate":

https://www.mql5.com/pt/market/product/5380


Also I discovered a service called "cluster delta", for pocket change per month you can have real futures volume in MT4, I think it is US$7 for the premium package. I am thinking of getting it too to compare:

http://my.clusterdelta.com/premium_overview
  • #33,193
  • Jul 2, 2020 2:16pm Jul 2, 2020 2:16pm
Quoting Gauer
EURUSD today kept ping ponging inside a narrow range for the whole NY session, but sellers still in control as prices are moving lower, even though not overtly. Forecast still bearish: {image} {image} {image}
Hello first and foremost i'd like to thank you for posting and sharing knowledge on this platform. I appreciate your contribution. Secondly, i am new here and was asking if you could possibly point me to a place where i could find the fundamentals concerning Wyckoff methodology of trading. Any help will be much appreciated. Thank you and i hope to hear from you soon.
  • #33,194
  • Jul 3, 2020 3:20am Jul 3, 2020 3:20am
Hi guys, new to this thread.

How do you suggest to start? 1660 pages sound a bit intimidating
There is no try
  • #33,195
  • Jul 3, 2020 3:34am Jul 3, 2020 3:34am
Quoting kanch7440
{quote} Hello first and foremost i'd like to thank you for posting and sharing knowledge on this platform. I appreciate your contribution. Secondly, i am new here and was asking if you could possibly point me to a place where i could find the fundamentals concerning Wyckoff methodology of trading. Any help will be much appreciated. Thank you and i hope to hear from you soon.
and also answering to Wise-Jedi
I suggest you to read book David Weiss - Trades about to happen. its very good book and describes the most important concepts for wyckoff.
If we are speaking about the thread, then i can tell its full of nuggets. you can read it as a book and it will lead to other great sources as well!
Malcolm once in a while posts in this free telegram group: https://t.me/trades4freedomfreeroom
but he has opened the service https://trades4freedom.com/services/ where he does daily trade calls (with good success rate), market analysis and webinars.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,196
  • Jul 3, 2020 3:41am Jul 3, 2020 3:41am
Ok thank's. I'll read that book for sure, some people also suggested me Master the Markets by Tom Williams.
There is no try
  • #33,197
  • Jul 3, 2020 4:01am Jul 3, 2020 4:01am
Quoting Wise-Jedi
Ok thank's. I'll read that book for sure, some people also suggested me Master the Markets by Tom Williams.
yeah, its good book too. but to my mind VSA lacks several important things as its simplified version of Wyckoff. Just when you study dont try to understand all the concepts. stick to one or few at first, otherwise it will be a mess. Also, dont forget about journaling, it will help you a lot in your learning process.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,198
  • Jul 3, 2020 7:28am Jul 3, 2020 7:28am
Quoting kanch7440
{quote} Hello first and foremost i'd like to thank you for posting and sharing knowledge on this platform. I appreciate your contribution. Secondly, i am new here and was asking if you could possibly point me to a place where i could find the fundamentals concerning Wyckoff methodology of trading. Any help will be much appreciated. Thank you and i hope to hear from you soon.

First "throw in the trash can" all you think you know about technical analysis and trading, the markets, etc... Then read a book called "Master the Markets" by Tom Williams, just google it you will find it. Read it until you puke and know everything inside out. Donīt pay attention to the tradeguider marketing, you are just interested in the principles. After that you are ready to read "Trades About To Happen" by David Weis, do the same thing. After that I recommend watching the Chart Reading Mastery Course by Dr. Gary Dayton, and after that watch all his other courses, they dig a bit deeper in the principles and setups. Donīt bother trying to read the books written by Wyckoff, I mean, you can read them for the sake of reading, but this is one of those cases that going to the source wonīt make any difference. The books are a bit cryptic, there are no charts, only tables, and you would have to interpret everything and build the charts yourself. Tom Williams and David Weis already did that and wrote the books for you in a didactic manner.
  • #33,199
  • Jul 3, 2020 7:31am Jul 3, 2020 7:31am
Guys a screenshot using the True Volume Surrogate indicator I posted a couple of posts back, beautiful clear VSA analysis now:

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  • #33,200
  • Jul 3, 2020 9:10am Jul 3, 2020 9:10am
Quoting Gauer
Guys a screenshot using the True Volume Surrogate indicator I posted a couple of posts back, beautiful clear VSA analysis now: {image}
i see you have Weiss wave on your charts (minimized). i would say that setup looks better with the wave structure as its more important than one climactic action.

p.s.
the volume surrogate shows volumes like futures do. could be great tool for those who dont have access to futures feed.
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The more you learn the more you earn
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