Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2537 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,721
  • Jun 22, 2020 3:46pm Jun 22, 2020 3:46pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} You probably wont be paying the bills for a long time. maybe one or two. You are still learning,, you need to trust yourself and trade the method,,
Yes. So far i am quiet happy with my progress. Having this one setup at a specific time of the day is making my trading life less complicated / annoying. With the indicators methods i tried so far i never felt comfortable with. I hope it will keep going well for me. So far i didn't come into a situation of having a trade retrace back on me so that i would have to take a stop loss or open a second trade at the opposite trigger of the GU 08:00 bar. And then, well this would be new to me then. I am trying to find more information about the "fixing" of failed trades here as you described. Right now i am on page 300 reading your topic.

Would you say that setting a daily goal like trying to get this +5 is a good practice? Maybe in case of a "fail" i should just stop for the day for now and accept not having reached my target and wait until the next day instead of opening a second, third trade (over trading). I guess thats where many traders struggle with, so not falling into greed while on the other hand trying to reach some daily/weekly/monthly goals and also not chasing trades of low probability where they don't have a tested setup.

How did you actually started getting to these setups/methods? So you started somewhere collecting stats for certain times of the day for different currency pairs and noticed there is a X potential probability for min amount of points you could collect from trading the break? I see all your setups concentrate at specific times.
  • #50,722
  • Jun 22, 2020 4:03pm Jun 22, 2020 4:03pm
I have spent hundreds of hours looking at charts. I have thousands of stats, ( mayb hundreds of thousands).
My best ever trades were several years before the damned margin rules changed.
The 08-00 break I have only been doing not too long. But remember my 5 points = £600, and chasing daily range anther 200/300 I don't need many points.
Less is more?
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,723
  • Jun 22, 2020 4:05pm Jun 22, 2020 4:05pm
You can only trade when you know what you are doing.
You play the game against the market maker. Go with them. Don't fight them.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,724
  • Jun 22, 2020 4:06pm Jun 22, 2020 4:06pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Had a look at your first loss (8th of June I think as that's been the only bad trade on GU 8am in 2 weeks). That was the day price broke low (just), then high, and then low again. On that day, if you had closed your first loss (or countered), and then moved over to the 4 hour chart, following the break of 12am-4am low would have bagged you a profit. At worst that would have been a breakeven day. Always good to check what price is doing on higher time frames.
Great help, thanks a lot. Yes i will look again at this trade. Its just that 12am, 4am isn't my time. But if this would be needed as a second setup i could trade to try making back a failed trade from GU 08:00 not every second day, this should be ok.

However billy suggested to me not trying to make to many different things at the beginning and thats what i am doing for now. About the higher time frames and trends. There is always somewhere a trend on any time frame, sometimes they might go all into the same direction, sometime they all speak a different language. I came here to make my life less complicated. Don't wanna start dealing again with analyzing trends and tons of different time frames. If i can get +5 Pips on average per day without that even if that means a few or more losing trades, i am fine with just that. Don't need to double my account every month. Actually a constant 5% per month i could count on, would be already incredible to me. If you see that most large funds not even average a 15% p.a i guess this is quiet good.
  • #50,725
  • Jun 22, 2020 4:07pm Jun 22, 2020 4:07pm
Quoting billytt
I have spent hundreds of hours looking at charts. I have thousands of stats, ( mayb hundreds of thousands). My best ever trades were several years before the damned margin rules changed. The 08-00 break I have only been doing not too long. But remember my 5 points = £600, and chasing daily range anther 200/300 I don't need many points. Less is more?
Agree.
  • #50,726
  • Jun 22, 2020 4:35pm Jun 22, 2020 4:35pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} erm, erm i make 5% with my main trade....
Well, clearly your risk appetite is not the same as mine But I guess part of it comes with experience, and knowing your edge.

Looking back at the previous trades last week, I saw you didn't post Wednesday's H4 range break, maybe you didn't trade it but let's say you did, how would you have played it?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Billy Pound.PNG Size: 101 KB


Because we have a false break to the upside, then false break to the downside which doesn't hit a 20pip TP. If following blindly the rules, with your risk that would be -5% and -5% on both trades? Or maybe the 2nd trade you would have moved the stop to BE, if so at what point? And for the rest of the day, there was no break of that range. (There was your London Open bar 8:00 on H1 which gave +5p, but that's another setup).

Also, do you set an alert, because sometimes when the H4 range breaks it's still in the middle of the night?
  • #50,727
  • Jun 22, 2020 5:44pm Jun 22, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting Barraka
{quote} Well, clearly your risk appetite is not the same as mine But I guess part of it comes with experience, and knowing your edge. Looking back at the previous trades last week, I saw you didn't post Wednesday's H4 range break, maybe you didn't trade it but let's say you did, how would you have played it? {image} Because we have a false break to the upside, then false break to the downside which doesn't hit a 20pip TP. If following blindly the rules, with your risk that would be -5% and -5% on both trades? ...
Don't want to speak for Billy but the 8am is his main/big trade. The other breaks are secondary.

Also, when Billy has a fail, he sometimes places retrace trades (these can be both in the original direction, or in the opposite direction). And sometimes I have seen him take just 1 pip (better than a loss lol).

That day does seem messy. If that was me, and I was playing it that day, I would have taken the original break long and then countered with a double sized position on the other side (or just closed the original long and opened a short of the same size at the other end). And if that didn't work, I would have taken the loss and walked away from GU that day as I know that the stats tell me tomorrow is likely to be better. Sometimes breaking even for a day is better than being whipped to death.

And another thing - if the range is quite big, Billy will sometimes trade on a 2 hour range (easier to manage).
  • #50,728
  • Jun 22, 2020 8:47pm Jun 22, 2020 8:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW2.png Size: 47 KB


A picture is worth a fist full of pips. Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #50,729
  • Jun 22, 2020 8:52pm Jun 22, 2020 8:52pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW2.png Size: 56 KB


Tracking the H1 range per hour of the day with the day of week filter. Shows how many times the range is over 13 pips. So for 04:00 H1 bar, 7 times over 13 pips and only 1 time under.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #50,730
  • Edited 10:43pm Jun 22, 2020 9:51pm | Edited 10:43pm
Anyone in southern hemisphere that looks at Tokyo open
The Billy bar is going great down here...!!!
3:00 bar is BB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200623-125006.png Size: 153 KB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #50,731
  • Jun 22, 2020 11:19pm Jun 22, 2020 11:19pm
Hi all.
Cable, 00-00 range too big. 69 points. So leaving it.
E/,U I am leaving.
Probably trade off a 2 hour bar later.
Hopefully Cable 08-00 25 bar will be good.
Trade Well All.
t 05-19
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,732
  • Jun 22, 2020 11:29pm Jun 22, 2020 11:29pm
Quoting billytt
Hi all. Cable, 00-00 range too big. 69 points. So leaving it. E/,U I am leaving. Probably trade off a 2 hour bar later. Hopefully Cable 08-00 25 bar will be good. Trade Well All. t 05-19
Hey billy
yeah me too. Sat on my hands for now. Hopefully it tightens up a bit before London open
cheers
  • #50,733
  • Jun 23, 2020 12:46am Jun 23, 2020 12:46am
Just got +7pip on low break of 04-00 GU H2 bar
cheers
  • #50,734
  • Jun 23, 2020 12:47am Jun 23, 2020 12:47am
Quoting Nikl
{quote} Hey billy yeah me too. Sat on my hands for now. Hopefully it tightens up a bit before London open cheers
Hi N, I just closed a short off the 04-00 2 bar, Cable, took 5 plus its dropping .
Trade well( its a start) lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,735
  • Jun 23, 2020 12:50am Jun 23, 2020 12:50am
Hi all, these 2 charts were copied a few minutes ago, cable has dropped some,
I have put the Black adr line at 50% range , (at the open price) so we have something to aim for, but I will adjust the position of adr line area..
Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 23 6 B.png Size: 16 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,736
  • Jun 23, 2020 1:00am Jun 23, 2020 1:00am
Cable chart just copied.
I put Black line showing adr high/low area. my adr is 128
Attached Image

don't forget, if it retraces up, I will adjust the black line.
t 07-00
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,737
  • Jun 23, 2020 1:03am Jun 23, 2020 1:03am
Quoting Barraka
{quote} Well, clearly your risk appetite is not the same as mine But I guess part of it comes with experience, and knowing your edge. Looking back at the previous trades last week, I saw you didn't post Wednesday's H4 range break, maybe you didn't trade it but let's say you did, how would you have played it? {image} Because we have a false break to the upside, then false break to the downside which doesn't hit a 20pip TP. If following blindly the rules, with your risk that would be -5% and -5% on both trades? ...
Hi B, hope you are well.
I will answer your question later.
But 1st, was it last Wednesday 17th June, UK Time?
until later.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,738
  • Jun 23, 2020 1:34am Jun 23, 2020 1:34am
[quote=Barraka;13019690]{quote} Well, clearly your risk appetite is not the same as mine But I guess part of it comes with experience, and knowing your edge. Looking back at the previous trades last week, I saw you didn't post Wednesday's H4 range break, maybe you didn't trade it but let's say you did, how would you have played it? {image} Because we have a false break to the upside, then false break to the

Hi B, My records show i did not trade the cable 00-00 4 hr bar break.
That day i made 48 points excluding my 08-00 5 %
i did trade e/u off the 00-00 2 hour bar and cable off the 06-00 and 08-00 2 hoiur bar.

BUT lets see that 00-00 4 hour range.
Attached Image

This is what happened,
high broke at 1, retraced and broke low at 2, moved back into the 00-00 range then dropped.
That is standard, I would of put a counter on at the low break and a second trade.
it would of been good.
Don't forget I did trade off th 2 hour bars,
probably because that 00-00 range was 46.

Itr is easier to post after the event, but anyone who reads my posts will see that is what I would of done.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,739
  • Jun 23, 2020 1:38am Jun 23, 2020 1:38am
and yes, I am short e/u off the 04-00 2 hour bar, and it looks unwell lol.. lets see.
t 07-38
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,740
  • Jun 23, 2020 2:16am Jun 23, 2020 2:16am
well....that was a quick one!
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