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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,701
  • Jun 22, 2020 7:38am Jun 22, 2020 7:38am
a couple of you guys have had some good fun.

Today Cable and E/U broke the 00-00 4 hour range High and kept going,
ADR High almost been made, maybe it will,
I have hardly traded today, got the 08-00 and a good e/u trade.
below, charts copied a few minutes ago,.
Attached Image

Attached Image


edit as in time 15-39
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,702
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 22, 2020 7:44am | Edited 8:04am
Referring to adding on earlier,
look at Cable today, high broke , lets add on ay + 10 or +15.
lets see.
it got to bar 1 and dropped then reversed back up.
Then dropped at 2, it looked like it would keep dropping,BUT Reversed back up.

It can be tricky, but if you are prepared to close a trade with 1 or 2 then re enter off a good trigger, it is good to trade.
Just dont be greedy and never think.

edit, oops , sorry I forgot chart again, duh!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu CC.png Size: 17 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,703
  • Jun 22, 2020 8:33am Jun 22, 2020 8:33am
Quoting billytt
Referring to adding on earlier, look at Cable today, high broke , lets add on ay + 10 or +15. lets see. it got to bar 1 and dropped then reversed back up. Then dropped at 2, it looked like it would keep dropping,BUT Reversed back up. It can be tricky, but if you are prepared to close a trade with 1 or 2 then re enter off a good trigger, it is good to trade. Just dont be greedy and never think. edit, oops , sorry I forgot chart again, duh!!!! {image}
edit,, even though we can see actual red bars, the green ones could of been red before they close. just saying.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,704
  • Jun 22, 2020 8:48am Jun 22, 2020 8:48am
Your posts are really helpful Billy and I think I speak for the majority here.

It's an eye opener when you look back at the charts and realise how many times the GU 12am-4am breaks in one direction for 20ish, and then the other direction for the rest of the ADR. I know if the range is too big, you start trading 2 hour bars instead of 4.

And most days it looks like it breaks twice only (some days just once). Which is obviously great for avoiding being whipped into oblivion lol.

Do you start watching for the break after 7am? Or even earlier? Thanks.
  • #50,705
  • Jun 22, 2020 9:09am Jun 22, 2020 9:09am
Quoting billytt
How do we obtain more points/%%%%% ???????. First, i trade for 5 points and no more. It all depends on bank balance and trade size. in my case, I make more following a fail. Different Trades. Trade 1, trade as normal, at 1 per point, I spread bet. take 5 Trade 2. Trade as normal at 1 per point BUT trade 2 trades, take 5 points and let second run. But to where???? Trade 3, Trade as normal at 1 per point, If it retraces back into 08-00 range , put in a second trade at 1. take 5, let the other trade run. As Bo pointed out and a thing we know, you can...
Well, so far I am 10% up this month after 11 days and 12 trades since 08 June. 6 trading days left for the month.

Assuming half of them gets lost at my SL level of -3% (15 Pips) and 3 will be won for another 1% (5 Pips) I would be up around +4% end of the month.

This would be a great result and I could pay the bills from 4% easily.

But 1 Month, 17 active trading days are probably still not long enough. I didn’t even came to the situation of a loss, or a series of failed GU 08:00 trades.
Oh no, there was 1 trade lost so far right, the first one where I had trouble with setting up the orders correct.
  • #50,706
  • Jun 22, 2020 9:26am Jun 22, 2020 9:26am
Quoting billytt
Referring to adding on earlier, look at Cable today, high broke , lets add on ay + 10 or +15. lets see. it got to bar 1 and dropped then reversed back up. Then dropped at 2, it looked like it would keep dropping,BUT Reversed back up. It can be tricky, but if you are prepared to close a trade with 1 or 2 then re enter off a good trigger, it is good to trade. Just dont be greedy and never think. edit, oops , sorry I forgot chart again, duh!!!! {image}
I got a trade it and it reversed but managed a counter out of it for ŁŁ. Didn't catch the add on but there's always tomorrow!

"and never think." My good lady is always reminding me of how good I am at this!

Good evening all
  • #50,707
  • Jun 22, 2020 9:27am Jun 22, 2020 9:27am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Try a trailing stop EA (expert adviser). I think you've been trying this method for a couple of weeks now. Most of the days have been winners so far. Hopefully that should give you some cushion now against losing days. I agree, to make a living from this you need to put on big lots (like Billy does). Question is, can you afford to lose 3 days in a row (15 pips a day) at 10 lots a pip? On a 100k account that would be a drawdown of near enough 5%.
I had drawdowns of already 50% and recovered from that. A 5% drawdown on a 100k on risk wouldn’t worry me to much, I did lost single sport bets of more already.

As long as there would be a positive expectancy I could recover from 3 trades lost in a row within the next month, this wood be good enough to me, but not sure yet.

I am not sure about the trailing stop. This would mean I would have to increase my initial target of 7 pips so there would be a buffer for price to retrace before hopefully would keep going with the trade in my direction now having a trailing stop on it, but after what. If I don’t want to give back the 7 pips Price would have no room to fluctuate for 1 Pip or the trailing stop would already triggered.
  • #50,708
  • Jun 22, 2020 9:35am Jun 22, 2020 9:35am
Hi Billy,

When I first came across this thread (somewhat around last year I think), I tried the breakout of range strategy, but never got it to work for me (over the long run). After a few winners, the losing setups always eliminated the winners in the end.

It's interesting to read the recent discussions on the various ways you can trade the break, could maybe take advantage of some nice trends for the rest of the day.

Below is what I understand when you talk about taking incremental trades every 10 pips. So each unit would be 10 pip TP with a 10 pip SL (or 8 pip, but then the very first trade would've been a loser). So for example here it would add up to 20 pips over 6 trades (4 winners, 2 losers). If I use 10P TP and 8P SL instead, it would only add up to 6pips total.
Is that assumption correct?

Thanks,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-B.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #50,709
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:21am Jun 22, 2020 10:21am
Quoting ia1979
Your posts are really helpful Billy and I think I speak for the majority here. It's an eye opener when you look back at the charts and realise how many times the GU 12am-4am breaks in one direction for 20ish, and then the other direction for the rest of the ADR. I know if the range is too big, you start trading 2 hour bars instead of 4. And most days it looks like it breaks twice only (some days just once). Which is obviously great for avoiding being whipped into oblivion lol. Do you start watching for the break after 7am? Or even earlier? Thanks....
another good question, and Hi Ia,

Today Monday, i decided last night to sleep and have no alarms on. I normally wake up very early anyway.
Thinking, oh its Monday, it might be slow.
So i woke up early lol, and decided to just trade 1 pair.
As for breaks., Sometimes i have an alarm which tells me price is near to a break, but normally i am waiting at 04-00 am.

Like you say, and i keep saying, Watch that 00-00 4 hour range.
i know today e/u and cable broke high and kept going, but it is far easier as you say, let one end break then reverse back. That way it is easier to hit the adr.

AND as always , i say again, it can then reverse again.
But usually that 00-00 range is small enough to play.
When in doubt, counter and play tomorrow, the stats then change. lol
Trade well bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,710
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:23am Jun 22, 2020 10:23am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, so far I am 10% up this month after 11 days and 12 trades since 08 June. 6 trading days left for the month. Assuming half of them gets lost at my SL level of -3% (15 Pips) and 3 will be won for another 1% (5 Pips) I would be up around +4% end of the month. This would be a great result and I could pay the bills from 4% easily. But 1 Month, 17 active trading days are probably still not long enough. I didn’t even came to the situation of a loss, or a series of failed GU 08:00 trades. Oh no, there was 1 trade lost so far right, the first...
You probably wont be paying the bills for a long time.
maybe one or two.
You are still learning,, you need to trust yourself and trade the method,,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,711
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:25am Jun 22, 2020 10:25am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I had drawdowns of already 50% and recovered from that. A 5% drawdown on a 100k on risk wouldn’t worry me to much, I did lost single sport bets of more already. As long as there would be a positive expectancy I could recover from 3 trades lost in a row within the next month, this wood be good enough to me, but not sure yet. I am not sure about the trailing stop. This would mean I would have to increase my initial target of 7 pips so there would be a buffer for price to retrace before hopefully would keep going with the trade in my direction...
you adjust lot size, or hunt the daily range.or both.
Ask me when i last lost.
I cannot remember,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,712
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:44am Jun 22, 2020 10:44am
Quoting Barraka
Hi Billy, When I first came across this thread (somewhat around last year I think), I tried the breakout of range strategy, but never got it to work for me (over the long run). After a few winners, the losing setups always eliminated the winners in the end. It's interesting to read the recent discussions on the various ways you can trade the break, could maybe take advantage of some nice trends for the rest of the day. Below is what I understand when you talk about taking incremental trades every 10 pips. So each unit would be 10 pip TP with a 10...
Hi Bud hope you are well.
BO can answer that lol, he reads things like that better than me.

From what i see you are correct but lets try again
i don't go for 10 but 15 or 20 points.
This example is for 10 points,
the high broke, price makes 10 points .
so we enter a 2nd trade with 8 stop. this too makes 10 points,
we enter a 3rd trade with 8 stop. this makes 10 points. yaaaaaaaaaaaay
How many points do we now have?
30 + 20 +10 =60.
Just suppose the 3rd trade loses and we have an 8 stop on it. 12+ 2 -8 =6
i hope this elps.
like i say, i dont follow trends.
The above example i used 10 but try 15/20.
Also, watch were the daily range is, how much of it has been made.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,713
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:50am Jun 22, 2020 10:50am
Quoting Barraka
Hi Billy, When I first came across this thread (somewhat around last year I think), I tried the breakout of range strategy, but never got it to work for me (over the long run). After a few winners, the losing setups always eliminated the winners in the end. It's interesting to read the recent discussions on the various ways you can trade the break, could maybe take advantage of some nice trends for the rest of the day. Below is what I understand when you talk about taking incremental trades every 10 pips. So each unit would be 10 pip TP with a 10...
OR,,compound proper, drrrrrrum rrrrrrrrolllllllllllllll

double your lot size, this will show if a man has balls. lol

for instance, as i did many years ago.
i made 20 points with a 20 stop, then double it. 40 points with 20 stop, double it 80 points with 20 stop etc, keep it going, i did it.
Trading was different then, it can still be done, but with the bank roll you need, you might as well buy a house and rent it out.
This sort of compounding needs to be done on selective trades and not just hoping you catch the right trend... easy lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,714
  • Jun 22, 2020 11:47am Jun 22, 2020 11:47am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, so far I am 10% up this month after 11 days and 12 trades since 08 June. 6 trading days left for the month. Assuming half of them gets lost at my SL level of -3% (15 Pips) and 3 will be won for another 1% (5 Pips) I would be up around +4% end of the month. This would be a great result and I could pay the bills from 4% easily. But 1 Month, 17 active trading days are probably still not long enough. I didn’t even came to the situation of a loss, or a series of failed GU 08:00 trades. Oh no, there was 1 trade lost so far right, the first...
Had a look at your first loss (8th of June I think as that's been the only bad trade on GU 8am in 2 weeks). That was the day price broke low (just), then high, and then low again. On that day, if you had closed your first loss (or countered), and then moved over to the 4 hour chart, following the break of 12am-4am low would have bagged you a profit. At worst that would have been a breakeven day. Always good to check what price is doing on higher time frames.
  • #50,715
  • Jun 22, 2020 12:47pm Jun 22, 2020 12:47pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Bud hope you are well. BO can answer that lol, he reads things like that better than me. From what i see you are correct but lets try again i don't go for 10 but 15 or 20 points. This example is for 10 points, the high broke, price makes 10 points . so we enter a 2nd trade with 8 stop. this too makes 10 points, we enter a 3rd trade with 8 stop. this makes 10 points. yaaaaaaaaaaaay How many points do we now have? 30 + 20 +10 =60. Just suppose the 3rd trade loses and we have an 8 stop on it. 12+ 2 -8 =6 i hope this elps. like...
Ah ok got it, each prior trade is kept open, as an additional unit is taken. But with your example the difference in the result is quite big, with just 1 unit losing (the 3rd), you go from 60 pips to just 6 pips... So I guess the trade-off here, is to consider if the market is likely to go 30+ pips without retracing 8 pips, which seems overall unlikely. But then again, you say you go for 20ish pips, so it's not the same.

When go go for 15-20 pips, in a single unit, is your SL matched the same (so 1:1 R:R)? This for me has been my biggest hurdle in trying to backtest this technique, as over a larger sample size the WR would be slightly below 50%, so not winning. But I know you mentioned you take counter-trades or stuff like that, which maybe might make all the difference in the long run.

Finally, when you talk about doubling, are you talking about successive days, like if on Monday H4 breakout you made 20p, then Tuesday you went for 40p and so on?

Thanks,
  • #50,716
  • Jun 22, 2020 1:01pm Jun 22, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Had a look at your first loss (8th of June I think as that's been the only bad trade on GU 8am in 2 weeks). That was the day price broke low (just), then high, and then low again. On that day, if you had closed your first loss (or countered), and then moved over to the 4 hour chart, following the break of 12am-4am low would have bagged you a profit. At worst that would have been a breakeven day. Always good to check what price is doing on higher time frames.


yaaaaaay Ia, you are getting good. nice one.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,717
  • Jun 22, 2020 1:04pm Jun 22, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} you adjust lot size, or hunt the daily range.or both. Ask me when i last lost. I cannot remember,
Hey Billy that is what I was trying to ask, if you say „hunt the daily range“, what you mean by this? I did read the topic about 300 pages now and did read this sentence several times so far but couldn’t find an example yet actually showing what this shall look like on practice.
  • #50,718
  • Jun 22, 2020 1:12pm Jun 22, 2020 1:12pm
Quoting Barraka
{quote} Ah ok got it, each prior trade is kept open, as an additional unit is taken. But with your example the difference in the result is quite big, with just 1 unit losing (the 3rd), you go from 60 pips to just 6 pips... So I guess the trade-off here, is to consider if the market is likely to go 30+ pips without retracing 8 pips, which seems overall unlikely. But then again, you say you go for 20ish pips, so it's not the same. When go go for 15-20 pips, in a single unit, is your SL matched the same (so 1:1 R:R)? This for me has been my biggest...
erm, erm i make 5% with my main trade.
i will have a Fail, i use these other trades to help off set a loss. (not all of the time but sometimes). <<<<< remember this sentence.

If i add on , it is for some extra points..

The example in last post, i said 10, realistically this is too small a range, just the natural ebb and flow will usually close a trade.
15/20 is better.
Don't forget, this adding on is like a bonus trade. you may get a streak or just end up with a few points...
BUT YOU DON'T LOSE,........
i first used this add on type trade years ago when i hunted spikes on oil. #
Try and develop a preference/style.
Just do not think, oooohhhhhhhhhhh i could of made more points,
If you chase lots/many /muchos you will probably lose. (i say you) i do not actually mean you bud.
i
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,719
  • Jun 22, 2020 1:24pm Jun 22, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hey Billy that is what I was trying to ask, if you say „hunt the daily range“, what you mean by this? I did read the topic about 300 pages now and did read this sentence several times so far but couldn’t find an example yet actually showing what this shall look like on practice.
i do it most days,(chase daily range) i post in here most days.
Right.
tomorrow Tuesday , the 00-00 4 hour bar range will be approx 40. and the average daily range will be approx 120
Take 40 away from 120 and it equals 80.
So once the 00-00 bar area is broken we know , we might get 80 points IF WE CHASE IT.
That is the easy part
even if it is a bad day, we can get 30.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO once we get the break we aim for PART OF 80 NOT 80, WHY?????? Because we are not greedy,PLUS we dont really know.
the first break might make ??? lets say 20 and then retrace to break other end.
SOOOOOO we might make 20 ,, 40 range plus 20 first break = 60. 120 adr minus 60 =60.

i am trying to keep it simple.
it is all maths.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,720
  • Jun 22, 2020 1:37pm Jun 22, 2020 1:37pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} i do it most days,(chase daily range) i post in here most days. Right. tomorrow Tuesday , the 00-00 4 hour bar range will be approx 40. and the average daily range will be approx 120 Take 40 away from 120 and it equals 80. So once the 00-00 bar area is broken we know , we might get 80 points IF WE CHASE IT. That is the easy part even if it is a bad day, we can get 30. SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO once we get the break we aim for PART OF 80 NOT 80, WHY?????? Because we are not greedy,PLUS we dont really know. the first break might make ???...
I like this sort of math
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