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Trading Made Simple

  • #105,581
  • Jun 16, 2020 10:41am Jun 16, 2020 10:41am
How many times have you heard, "99% of traders lose money"? How many times did you find those words in a scientific study? How many times did you find a citation to a scientific study to support that claim? Do not be surprised to find that these words are nothing more than someone's opinion! For example, this link has been given to support the claim, but what is actually written there begins, "I have the opinion, that the most trades lose money,..." Hmmm, what do you know, OPINION ONLY! No study, no analysis of data, just OPINION. Other references lead not to supporting evidence for the claim, but instead, list after list of what a person or person THINKS or BELIEVES are causes of losing money. So not only does this list not address the actual question of the validity of the 99% metric, but it also does not give any scientific supporting evidence for the myriad of listed reasons that are causative factors in losing.

Of course, everyone believes what he chooses to believe. But if you make a choice in a belief and decide to "pass it along", please do your due diligence and provide a rational explanation for your belief; and no, "Well I saw it on Youtube, so it must be true!" is not a rational explanation.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #105,582
  • Jun 16, 2020 11:35am Jun 16, 2020 11:35am
Many lost money because does not have firm target or SL.
Advanced Trade Execution - Ready for hire
  • #105,583
  • Jun 16, 2020 3:38pm Jun 16, 2020 3:38pm
Quoting DrDave
How many times have you heard, "99% of traders lose money"? How many times did you find those words in a scientific study? How many times did you find a citation to a scientific study to support that claim? Do not be surprised to find that these words are nothing more than someone's opinion! For example, this link has been given to support the claim, but what is actually written there begins, "I have the opinion, that the most trades lose money,..." Hmmm, what do you know, OPINION...
Well the evidence proves that the MAJORITY (maybe not 99%) but the majority of traders even in the short term lose money. In the data provided it averages out to 75%. This is a fact and here is the data to prove it via FCA Regulated brokerages. This is just 3 months of data (from February 1, 2020 until April 30, 2020,)... I'm sure if the data was more long-term the numbers would be drastically different.

I appreciate your rationality in the sense that you ask for evidence and you disregard claims without data. In this case there is genuine data to back it up.

From my personal experience, 99% of the self proclaimed "full time traders" I've talked had no data to back up their empty claims

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  • #105,584
  • Jun 16, 2020 4:56pm Jun 16, 2020 4:56pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Jun 16 H1 FO PA H1 consolidation Master Candle[3] do not trade consolidation but can trade the breakout. {image}
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EURUSD Jun 16 H1 ...Master Candle Trading

that was a nice POP of that H1 MC[3]... for those who waited patiently one candle at a time and performed your trading tasks with discipline.

good R:R too!

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,585
  • Jun 16, 2020 5:06pm Jun 16, 2020 5:06pm
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} Well the evidence proves that the MAJORITY (maybe not 99%) but the majority of traders even in the short term lose money. In the data provided it averages out to 75%. This is a fact and here is the data to prove it via FCA Regulated brokerages. This is just 3 months of data (from February 1, 2020 until April 30, 2020,)... I'm sure if the data was more long-term the numbers would be drastically different. I appreciate your rationality in the sense that you ask for evidence and you disregard claims without data. In this case there is genuine...



those brokers' data between 75% and 85% are reasonable.

there has been always that '95% failure' study figure being used over many years by trading schools, coaches, professional trading teachers, etc. for good intended reasons.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,586
  • Jun 16, 2020 5:36pm Jun 16, 2020 5:36pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} USDJPY Jun 16 yesterday closed Doji today is BoJ Policy Rate announcement the rest of this week will decide on that Weekly candle range. {image} I placed my bets on H4 testing the 50EMA & 200EMA above or Weekly testing its 10EMA. {image}
USDJPY Jun 17 ... new trading day open

quick review what happened at that BoJ Policy Rate.

H4 tested twice that 50EMA above but the Weekly and Daily still very much have the control.

no new direction in the PA and still trading between 107 and 108, perhaps maybe more downside later... some say '¥ is cheaper'.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,587
  • Jun 16, 2020 5:50pm Jun 16, 2020 5:50pm
AUDJPY Jun 17

Daily yesterday was 'spinning top' candle ... indecision where it wants to go.

But for those who use the Power of 10EMA by tango, you know what the position is on Daily.

There is the Weekly big candle what strat name as Weekly Control Candle and that defines one of the market type condition which I would be trading now. For me, it depends on the Weekly range - wide range or narrow range, and if that W1 is WideRangeBar WRB or not.

D1 Big Picture

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H4 multi-charts

this multi-charts will show the TMS 5-Method template which we trade.

H4 below current price action are two recent swing lows as support and further lower is that 200EMA. Check the CONFLUENCE of other 'support/resistance' when using the 10EMA/50EMA/200EMA, these are no holy grail moving averages but to use them to know where price potentially can react when there is CONFLUENCE of several 'support/resistance'. Also look at the BRNs and RNs the 00 and 50 price levels. Keep this simple and not to complicate with too many 'support/resistance' type of indicators. Keep chart clutter free.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,588
  • Jun 16, 2020 8:10pm Jun 16, 2020 8:10pm
emmanuel7788 Here are my last two days....or this week so far:
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  • #105,589
  • Jun 16, 2020 9:31pm Jun 16, 2020 9:31pm
Quoting tobyzambetti
emmanuel7788 Here are my last two days....or this week so far: {image}

you are trading 5Min and that is going to be very tough.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,590
  • Jun 16, 2020 9:35pm Jun 16, 2020 9:35pm
Trading H1, JPY pairs TMS_V19 alerts in the last 2 candles but I was busy

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,591
  • Jun 16, 2020 9:43pm Jun 16, 2020 9:43pm
"you are trading 5Min and that is going to be very tough."

Yes indeed its rough and stressful.
  • #105,592
  • Jun 16, 2020 10:27pm Jun 16, 2020 10:27pm
Quoting tobyzambetti
"you are trading 5Min and that is going to be very tough." Yes indeed its rough and stressful.

the 5Min is good but not when you are trading single-shot type of trades. it is stressful and you need to do lots of trades to get good results over a long term. Also most brokers do not offer small spread and their trade execution are usually not good enough.

I use 5Min only for multiple entries when trading the Daily / Weekly swings for both Trending and Sideways Wide Range market types but never in narrow ranged sideways market.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,593
  • Jun 16, 2020 10:50pm Jun 16, 2020 10:50pm
I am doing less scalping these days and more setting a sell stop or buy stop, limit order before going to bed at 2:00 am each morning. The London market opens at 11:00 PM at night for me. After three hours of movement I can sometimes see which direction it is going. I have been placing my sell stop or buy stop, limit orders to try and get 10 pips - then get up at 6:00 am to see if the order got placed or not.

If I had the EA tool you guys are always talking about in here (TVS-V19) I would probably change my method and look for live trades on many pairs instead of just trading the EUR/USD pair. But I can't seem to figure out where to purchase the TVS-V19 app or program or whatever its called. I still need to read the PDF you sent me on it as I have been consumed with reviewing candlestick formations lately.
  • #105,594
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:04am Jun 17, 2020 12:04am
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} Well the evidence proves that the MAJORITY (maybe not 99%) but the majority of traders even in the short term lose money. In the data provided it averages out to 75%. This is a fact and here is the data to prove it via FCA Regulated brokerages. This is just 3 months of data (from February 1, 2020 until April 30, 2020,)... I'm sure if the data was more long-term the numbers would be drastically different. I appreciate your rationality in the sense that you ask for evidence and you disregard claims without data. In this case there is genuine...
I looked at the winners data. So based on this sample, with a sample standard deviation of 4, we could see winners ranging from 13-37%, making the losers' range 63-87%. So the probability of there actually being 99% losers is extremely low. Even 90% is not very likely.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #105,595
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:00am Jun 17, 2020 2:00am
The danger when trading and not waiting for the price bar/candle to close is the last moment pullback


EURAUD Jun 17 H1 Frankfurt Open

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,596
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:11am Jun 17, 2020 2:11am
EURJPY Jun 17 H4 buy entry based on H1 setup

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,597
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:25am Jun 17, 2020 2:25am
Quoting tobyzambetti
emmanuel7788 Here are my last two days....or this week so far: {image}
Can you be profitable?
That will depend on:
- How fast you can recognize the TDI green has crossed red and you can clearly see green on the other side of red.
- How fast you can close and open order.
- The spread at the time the order was closed / placed.
- Consolidation will kill an account.
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Edit: Consolidation will kill an account.
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  • #105,598
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:42am Jun 17, 2020 2:42am
Quoting emmanuel7788
The danger when trading and not waiting for the price bar/candle to close is the last moment pullback EURAUD Jun 17 H1 Frankfurt Open {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD Jun 17 H1 FO pull back 17-6-2020 2-57-47 pm.png Size: 54 KB


EURAUD Jun 17 H4 sell trade based on the HA Frankfurt Open candle closed.

This is a how you can enter a trade during the active candle APB#1 by looking at the lower timeframe PA.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,599
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:45am Jun 17, 2020 2:45am
Quoting tobyzambetti
I am doing less scalping these days and more setting a sell stop or buy stop, limit order before going to bed at 2:00 am each morning. The London market opens at 11:00 PM at night for me. After three hours of movement I can sometimes see which direction it is going. I have been placing my sell stop or buy stop, limit orders to try and get 10 pips - then get up at 6:00 am to see if the order got placed or not. If I had the EA tool you guys are always talking about in here (TVS-V19) I would probably change my method and look for live trades on many...

the TMS_V19 is a free tool available here

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12972826
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #105,600
  • Edited 3:13am Jun 17, 2020 3:03am | Edited 3:13am
Post a live trade to be honest.

What for?
When you follow BigE's advice in this thread, there is a way to see a bullshitter.
- Did TDI green crossed red?
- Is the order placed at the beginning of that new bar
Post#647 is subjective and is used how the trader see the market.
- Is the order closed when green goes: flat, check mark, hook over or closed at next crossover.
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