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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #50,921
  • Jun 12, 2020 3:49pm Jun 12, 2020 3:49pm
DOW looks ready to go up next week
Nice PA during the NYSE session
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #50,922
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:53pm Jun 12, 2020 4:53pm
Yep. Didn’t break the 200ma on the 4hr, bounced off it perfectly.

The S&P remained above on the daily and the 4hr.

Vix finished down 12% but is still elevated. Certainly looks primed for bullishness next week but you’re playing the odds with any pullback in a recession, you wouldn’t be surprised if it drops again!!
  • #50,923
  • Jun 14, 2020 8:02am Jun 14, 2020 8:02am
Weird pre market - Futures are up 1.5%, IG weekend down 1%.

Even Jim Simons is down 20% this year, adding to Buffet, Drunkenmiller, Dalio.

If the Dow drops below the 200ma on the 4hr then there’s another hard slog ahead.
  • #50,924
  • Edited 2:00pm Jun 14, 2020 1:21pm | Edited 2:00pm
Hi guys,
Seems a massive 8:1 sell:buy was generated on friday. Historically important and could mean some major drop signal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Also NYSE Equity Put call ratio, published on their page went up from 9th June 0,4 (historic lows) to 12th june 0,71 (which is a notable jump)

Some bigfish CEOs also heavily sold stocks of their companies...
http://openinsider.com/screener?s=&o...cnt=100&page=1

What do you make of this ?

Cheers, RL
  • #50,925
  • Jun 14, 2020 5:22pm Jun 14, 2020 5:22pm
Triple witching this coming Friday
I do exit manually, do not roll automatically. like to be in control.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #50,926
  • Edited 6:21pm Jun 14, 2020 6:01pm | Edited 6:21pm
Quoting redlabel
Hi guys, Seems a massive 8:1 sell:buy was generated on friday. Historically important and could mean some major drop signal. {image} Also NYSE Equity Put call ratio, published on their page went up from 9th June 0,4 (historic lows) to 12th june 0,71 (which is a notable jump) Some bigfish CEOs also heavily sold stocks of their companies... http://openinsider.com/screener?s=&o...cnt=100&page=1...
Nothing conclusive in there. The big down volume was Thursday I think, Friday was bullish (despite some volatility).

Price is still staying above that 200ma on the 4hr, and isn’t breaking despite attempts, which is bullish. If you have a look at a 4hr chart, look at action around the pullbacks. It consolidates, bounces up and down, causes confusion, and then speeds off in its intended direction. That’s what it is doing right now.

I would much prefer that this market bombs another 20-30% to provide better investing opportunities. Will it happen? Nobody knows apart from Powell at the moment. He holds all the power. If I was anyone else I would wait before taking a long. I did concede that I went in early, because I felt the bullish case was strong. That’s a 50/50 now!

IMO this drop should have been a buying dip and nothing more, but the Fed speaks later, earnings are coming through and Florida cases doubled. Yet the market is less than 1% down and rising as I type this. Bloodbaths are usually quick and brutal not slow and rising... but let’s see, it could go either way. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a final shake out.

This is why I put 80% into investing and 20% into Spot markets. Trading in a recession is messy. Buy and hold is your best strategy right now.
  • #50,927
  • Jun 14, 2020 6:53pm Jun 14, 2020 6:53pm
Quoting redlabel
Hi guys, Seems a massive 8:1 sell:buy was generated on friday. Historically important and could mean some major drop signal. {image} Also NYSE Equity Put call ratio, published on their page went up from 9th June 0,4 (historic lows) to 12th june 0,71 (which is a notable jump) Some bigfish CEOs also heavily sold stocks of their companies... http://openinsider.com/screener?s=&o...cnt=100&page=1...
Never used the down vol v up vol before
People starting buying puts to protect their positions as the market dumped on Thurs
This is interesting
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...day-2020-06-12
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #50,928
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:42am Jun 15, 2020 3:42am
Closed out at 4hr 200ma. Medium size loss; was a perfect trade opportunity but sometimes they just don't work out.

Pre-market Vix up 20% again - wow. Uncle Jerome speaks later knowing he has the ability to absolutely destroy this market. His words in the previous week were quite confusing given all the efforts the Fed have made thus far to recover markets.

Uptrend is just about still intact. If we get another 20%+ drop, we get the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Go the bank, loan some money... plan to be rich.

I guess none of us would be surprised if there's intervention today, however...
  • #50,929
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:15am Jun 15, 2020 4:15am
To be honest the market seemed to be gearing up to smash it
He was just the excuse they needed
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #50,930
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:34am Jun 15, 2020 4:34am
Yeah, absolutely true. I was saying a few days before euphoria is always met with a crushing blow.

I don’t think anyone in the finance world understands what’s going on right now, though. I didn’t think price would drop below that 200ma... expected a retest only.

I hope everyone in this forum is investing in ETFs rather than putting all their money in the spot market.

Theres going to be some gruesome earnings coming through. Interesting to see what happens next. I thought earnings/Q2 data would make the dent.
  • #50,931
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:54am Jun 15, 2020 4:54am
Hello guys, I suggest you to check Hurst analysis (hes a member of this forum). He studies market cycles and he is specialized on the sp500. He was expecting a reversal of the market this June. With his view, sp500 bear trend is just starting.. take care all.
  • #50,932
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:59am Jun 15, 2020 4:59am
Attached Image
on a postive roll...
  • #50,933
  • Jun 15, 2020 8:13am Jun 15, 2020 8:13am
Quoting Rmg
{image}
I read your post on another thread. Made me lol. I am referring to investing, owning stocks or buying ETFs as opposed to Spot.

I am 30% up for this year on Tesla alone, 9% on my fund that tracks the S&P. I bought relatively near the lows. If more lows come, I will be incredibly happy to load up more.

Losing a few spot trades is no problem but as I've recommended before, I only put 20% of my funds into Spot during a terrible market. And I am also up there by 5% too.

Made £30k on trades last week, got stopped out for £2.5k last night. Risk management.

I totally understand the doomsday case. Global economy is in tatters. However, the US fed have unlimited power to push the markets to new highs. Invest smartly people (not spot).
  • #50,934
  • Jun 15, 2020 8:18am Jun 15, 2020 8:18am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} I read your post on another thread. Made me lol. I am referring to investing, owning stocks or buying ETFs as opposed to Spot. I am 30% up for this year on Tesla alone, 9% on my fund that tracks the S&P. I bought relatively near the lows. If more lows come, I will be incredibly happy to load up more. Losing a few spot trades is no problem but as I've recommended before, I only put 20% of my funds into Spot during a terrible market. And I am also up there by 5% too. Made £30k on trades last week, got stopped out for £2.5k last night. Risk...
Good luck to you!!!
on a postive roll...
  • #50,935
  • Jun 15, 2020 8:19am Jun 15, 2020 8:19am
I don’t post numbers as it brings out a competitive side in me that causes me to take excessive risk, but there we go..
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  • #50,936
  • Jun 15, 2020 8:22am Jun 15, 2020 8:22am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Good luck to you!!!
And to you. Green pips to everybody as they say.

I do agree with your sentiment and urge caution when playing the spot market at the moment, though.
  • #50,937
  • Jun 15, 2020 11:06am Jun 15, 2020 11:06am
DOW is going to the FRI NYSE session close
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #50,938
  • Jun 15, 2020 11:20am Jun 15, 2020 11:20am
Yeah I think so, went long again 25,410. Turns out I was being too risk averse with my previous stop. Did consider that at the time. Could be risky with Powell speaking later.

Last post for a while for me. Spending too much time on FF!
  • #50,939
  • Jun 15, 2020 12:50pm Jun 15, 2020 12:50pm
Quoting Neogenesis
Yeah I think so, went long again 25,410. Turns out I was being too risk averse with my previous stop. Did consider that at the time. Could be risky with Powell speaking later. Last post for a while for me. Spending too much time on FF!
DOW filled the GAP, it has been a good set up, if one takes GAPs into the trading strategy
I am also limiting time spent on forum, have got a lot to do.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #50,940
  • Jun 15, 2020 1:12pm Jun 15, 2020 1:12pm
SL to BE

Someone was joking in another thread about me saying the uptrend remains intact. Gotta love permabears

£20k in profit, stop locked in. Going to let it ride..
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