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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #2,421
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:03pm Jun 11, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting Barraka
And then there's this USDCHF short, nothing special just a bounce of the channel off the sma. What I liked about this setup is that the entry corresponds to a recent S/R level, with confluence of yesterday's low. And the break of retracement TL & close below channel happened just at that area, also with confluence of the sma.
Very nice high probability entry in your third example, a great example of three-way confluence (SMA200, turncoat SR, TL break).
  • #2,422
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:16pm Jun 11, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting bgy2jd
Hi All Thought I'd post this trade setup that caught my eye...Thanks James
Excellent...very useful. Thanks
  • #2,423
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:18pm Jun 11, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting ChubbyWookie
Haven't had much time to look at charts, but at least I have been able to keep an eye on the thread! Anyways few weeks ago I was able to enter on the 4h chart and closed the majority of the position yesterday Profitability (which is almost unheard of over here). If price breaks todays AR high i will close the rest. Please let me knwo what you guys think. Is there anything i may be missing? Hopefully I will figure out Hanover's tool so i can get alerts when i'm in the middle of nowhere and take some more trades. {image} Cheers, Wookie {image}
Great trades. Looking forward to more...I prefer the longer TFs, so your post is very useful. Thanks
  • #2,424
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:30pm Jun 11, 2020 3:30pm
OK here goes folks. I'm posting some demo trades I took yesterday on the Daily. I'm still learning and trying to understand the nuances as well as build intuition. Any feedback/advice greatly appreciated. Not much annotation in the screen shots - I will work on this going forward. In terms of the text I have added, it's essentially what the indicators were displaying at the time e.g. RSI 74 RBBBBBRR - MTF colours for the different time frames. At present I am focusing on good entries and exits, not money management or risk.

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Thanks
  • #2,425
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:19pm Jun 11, 2020 5:19pm
Today has been a very good day, 7 operations with tp. The security of having the SMA marked the limits, helps a lot psychologically, in addition that the market today was quite trending.

The proximity of the price to the SMA or one of the conditions of the strategy, together with the confluence of TL, S / R, ... work very well. I highlight it for the importance of looking to the left, as Laura said. Today the combination has worked very well.

I enclose some catch.
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  • #2,426
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:29pm Jun 11, 2020 5:29pm
After my post yesterday I noticed the 8EMA channel had broken the 200SMA with price just entering back into the 8EMA channel on the GBPJPY 1H chart. Just so happens there was a head and shoulder pattern which seemed to be forming resistance as well. My entry was then placed based off the 5 minute chart with a target of about 300 pips and stop just above the current daily open. I often tend to place stops to tight so would appreciate others opinions.

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Below is a daily entry on the EURGBP (been in since 05.11.20). In hindsight looking at the bigger picture it was not a very good trade. As for now stop set just above BE and will let it play out.

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  • #2,427
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:55pm Jun 11, 2020 5:55pm
There I was eating some lunch from the day job, and what do I see on USDCAD..........well it is my favorite setup !
Normally don't try to trade during workday, just cannot manage the trade as actively as I want
..but an afternoon of zoom meetings where I will be able to watch one pair while "attending"....
and it is after all my best setup...and it has incredible overhead space to run between support, if it can get thru first minor resistance....
Trade on !!
So as of posting: worst I can do now is +56 pips. If it goes to meet my target +117 pips.
Roadmap nails it again !!!

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  • #2,428
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:38am Jun 12, 2020 2:38am
Quoting TheG-Lover
There I was eating some lunch from the day job, and what do I see on USDCAD..........well it is my favorite setup ! Normally don't try to trade during workday, just cannot manage the trade as actively as I want ..but an afternoon of zoom meetings where I will be able to watch one pair while "attending".... and it is after all my best setup...and it has incredible overhead space to run between support, if it can get thru first minor resistance.... Trade on !! So as of posting: worst I can do now is +56 pips. If it goes to meet my target +117 pips....
Excellent!
  • #2,429
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:04am Jun 12, 2020 4:04am
Happy with the mornings work albeit late to the table today.
Back later.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,430
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:31am Jun 12, 2020 8:31am
Just saw this thread and have started to try and implement this strategy into my other ones as well. I would love to be able to talk to Laura and understand the process a bit more when she has time
  • #2,431
  • Jun 12, 2020 9:39am Jun 12, 2020 9:39am
Quoting SickBreezy
Just saw this thread and have started to try and implement this strategy into my other ones as well. I would love to be able to talk to Laura and understand the process a bit more when she has time
You could read from post one, then demo, then ask questions ?

You might also find that sticking to one strategy will do you more good than flitting about from strategy to strategy like a butterfly. That way usually leads to failure.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,432
  • Jun 12, 2020 9:41am Jun 12, 2020 9:41am
Nasdaq -Short going well. Will keep watching now as 200 ma is drifting into view. Any risk and I will close out and enjoy the coming week end.
Have a good weekend all.
Back next week.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,433
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:16am Jun 12, 2020 10:16am
Quoting turnip15
Nasdaq -Short going well. Will keep watching now as 200 ma is drifting into view. Any risk and I will close out and enjoy the coming week end. Have a good weekend all. Back next week. {image}
Hit the ADR. Definatly call it a day now.
Have a good weekend folks and back next week.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,434
  • Jun 12, 2020 1:11pm Jun 12, 2020 1:11pm
Wow - got my butt kicked this week.

Laura T - the big losses are from D1 trades with stops set at swing highs/lows. Stops have always been my Achilles heel. I am thinking of using a blanket twenty pips, but am wondering if that will be sufficient for larger timeframes. My last three trades were off of M5 with a 20 pip SL. Don't know how I can steal time like that every day. Any advice?
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  • #2,435
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:09pm Jun 12, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting oradba
. I am thinking of using a blanket twenty pips, but am wondering if that will be sufficient for larger timeframes. My last three trades were off of M5 with a 20 pip SL. {image}
I can only share my personal journey over several years of futures and forex trading.
I am a firm believer that context matters in trading.
My initial attempts in trading were using fixed/constant stops/targets. What I found was I could never make it work
over the span of time...maybe for a day or week or so, but eventually I would have blow out days or runs of repeated losses.
The lesson I believe I learned is that market volatility is never constant, thus using a constant stop/target was never going to work.
Context and adaptability I found was a key aspect.
Today, I set my stops and targets based on recent price action (Support resistance, swing pivot points, key levels (Prev day Hi.Lo/ADR).
Then I position size to manage my risk to a constant $ value.
There may be others on here who have made it work with a constant size, and I do not want to claim it is impossible.
I just know it was a long, painful road of disappointment in my journey.
Best of luck !
  • #2,436
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:57pm Jun 12, 2020 2:57pm
Another week of waking up early and trading for ~ 4 hours before the day job starts:
I have gotten used to doing it and the roadmap gives me all the reason to do so.
Results this week:
31 trades: 23 Winners/8 Losers :: 74% Wins
Average Winner: 21.0 pips
Average Loser: 10.2 pips
Net Pips: 378.4 pips
DDRL: 5.94
If you are not familiar with DDRL, I have attached the article by Robert Deel from Jan2007 SFO magazine that exposed me to this concept for evaluating your trading system and approach. I have found it very beneficial over the years.
(Apologies, I accidentally scanned the last page when I made it...not part of the need to read).
Back at it next week!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf SCN_0005.pdf   1.8 MB | 2,574 downloads
  • #2,437
  • Jun 12, 2020 3:41pm Jun 12, 2020 3:41pm
Quoting TheG-Lover
Another week of waking up early and trading for ~ 4 hours before the day job starts: I have gotten used to doing it and the roadmap gives me all the reason to do so. Results this week: 31 trades: 23 Winners/8 Losers :: 74% Wins Average Winner: 21.0 pips Average Loser: 10.2 pips Net Pips: 378.4 pips DDRL: 5.94 If you are not familiar with DDRL, I have attached the article by Robert Deel from Jan2007 SFO magazine that exposed me to this concept for evaluating your trading system and approach. I have found it very beneficial over the years. (Apologies,...
In the UK one can spreadbet. Imagine £10 X 378 pips = £3780...…………..Not bad for a weeks work

Well done - have a good weekend.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,438
  • Jun 13, 2020 4:11am Jun 13, 2020 4:11am
Quoting oradba
Wow - got my butt kicked this week. ~~
Day trading does not mean you need use a D1 chart. Some moves take days to form.

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Good Trading
  • #2,439
  • Jun 13, 2020 4:27am Jun 13, 2020 4:27am
Quoting oradba
Wow - got my butt kicked this week. Laura T - the big losses are from D1 trades with stops set at swing highs/lows. Stops have always been my Achilles heel. I am thinking of using a blanket twenty pips, but am wondering if that will be sufficient for larger timeframes. My last three trades were off of M5 with a 20 pip SL. Don't know how I can steal time like that every day. Any advice? {image}
Base your stops on the lower timeframe, say H4. a blanket stop will definitely not work.
  • #2,440
  • Jun 13, 2020 6:27am Jun 13, 2020 6:27am
Quoting TheG-Lover
Another week of waking up early and trading for ~ 4 hours before the day job starts: I have gotten used to doing it and the roadmap gives me all the reason to do so. ....Back at it next week!! {image}
Thanks for the article G, very interesting. looks like you definitely had a good week !

I know what you mean about risk management, I have never taken any notice of leverage in the traditional sense as like you I size my position to fit the £ I am comfortable with losing on a trade based on the SL position. So (heresy!) more leverage = less risk of margin issues.

For roadmap trading I have been doubling the SL risk amount as I am setting the emergency SL so far away.
If I am not going to be around I might move the SL to "failed idea" exit if it can be conveniently positioned.
However I have noticed that if I miss the move against me and it goes beyond my normal risk level towards the 2x then I am more inclined to hold on to it.. (or worse..). So I think I will be going back a step until I have a handle on that.

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