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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #50,901
  • Jun 11, 2020 2:26am Jun 11, 2020 2:26am
Big fall. Wonder if it can make 25k next.
  • #50,902
  • Jun 11, 2020 4:16am Jun 11, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Whoa! Are we risk on or risk off I can't tell?! I clocked out two profits at the second double top. Still have two trades running, should have taken those out with no loss. Greed isn't good! The vix is down 1% and put/call ratio hasn't even moved. If we were about to be bearish the reaction should be more extreme. Powell suggested a full recovery by H2 2020 and suggested Q2 data is going to be the harshest seen. Hmm. It's also closed on its low which can often be a bullish signal.. but not guaranteed.
Vix up 11% in pre-market... that's a big jump!

Good buying opportunity soon, did say the euphoria would come crashing down. Now it's time to put the fear of god into people, make them stop out and send the market back off in the other direction.
  • #50,903
  • Edited 12:29pm Jun 11, 2020 12:19pm | Edited 12:29pm
Everyone’s quiet... lol.

This is where the market wants to discourage you. These are the moments you should save your capital for.

Of course, you’ll wait for a confirmed change in momentum before entering because there will be periods of bear markets, but I suspect this is what it always is: dominating mindless traders.

Drop the market, stop everyone out. Create mass fear (market is really going down, we are doomed). And then... with the weak hands shook out, a positive article is released and the market shoots up 10% in days.

Price has remained above the 200ma for both the S&P and Nasdaq. If it holds then it’s bullish...

Dont be discouraged. These are the moments you should wait for. But definitely wait because currently bearish volume is as bad as the crash, vix is up over 30% and puts more than 50%.

Trading really is mostly psychology in the end. Indices are easy to trade.
  • #50,904
  • Jun 11, 2020 12:25pm Jun 11, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting Neogenesis
Everyone’s quiet... lol..

do you think any pullback from todays minimum at the end of the day / crazy hour is possible ?
  • #50,905
  • Edited 3:44pm Jun 11, 2020 12:43pm | Edited 3:44pm
Yeah it’s absolutely possible, you never know when the powers that be will intervene.

I would be surprised if they let it limit down at 7%.

You want to wait for change of momentum, higher highs, higher lows etc.

If it holds the 200ma on the 4h and daily we should be prepared to go long.
  • #50,906
  • Jun 11, 2020 2:47pm Jun 11, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting Neogenesis
Everyone’s quiet... lol. This is where the market wants to discourage you. These are the moments you should save your capital for. Of course, you’ll wait for a confirmed change in momentum before entering because there will be periods of bear markets, but I suspect this is what it always is: dominating mindless traders. Drop the market, stop everyone out. Create mass fear (market is really going down, we are doomed). And then... with the weak hands shook out, a positive article is released and the market shoots up 10% in days. Price has remained...
You are absolutely right. Its times like this we save our capital for. The FOMO is real.
  • #50,907
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:42pm Jun 11, 2020 3:42pm
I didn't expect a near 10% fall from the high. That was... intense.

Forgot to say that I closed out my two open positions much earlier, glad I did. Fortunately I wasn't using what I consider to be big leverage because I knew the market was in the euphoric and greedy stage. Now we're on a diet!

The S&P daily has just touched below it's 200ma, the Dow has absolutely capitulated. I seriously doubt the Fed are prepared to let markets fail, however I won't be a buyer until we see higher highs and higher lows.

I am no expert and this isn't a preach. Remember what I said several days ago about the Vix being exceptionally low (at its 'floor') while the market was euphoric. For me these are always major danger signals.

'Buy when there's blood in the streets'. Or more pertinently, wait until you see it being cleaned up and then rush in.
  • #50,908
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:49pm Jun 11, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting Neogenesis
I didn't expect a near 10% fall from the high. That was... intense. Forgot to say that I closed out my two open positions much earlier, glad I did. Fortunately I wasn't using what I consider to be big leverage because I knew the market was in the euphoric and greedy stage. Now we're on a diet! The S&P daily has just touched below it's 200ma, the Dow has absolutely capitulated. I seriously doubt the Fed are prepared to let markets fail, however I won't be a buyer until we see higher highs and higher lows. I am no expert and this isn't a preach. Remember...
VIX lower volatility has also been matched by lower volume for several past days, while DOW was advancing north.
The move down has been vicious, but not totally surprising, just making room for trading.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #50,909
  • Edited 5:19pm Jun 11, 2020 3:58pm | Edited 5:19pm
Yep agreed. From what I observed you always seemed to wait patiently for these moments

I cannot imagine the market will capitulate after the Fed has put so much liquidity in. I would love to see everyone profit from the next move.

The tool that I use to measure volatility says we are at April levels and not that far off March! When volatility peaks I usually look to enter trades... it hasn't peaked yet. I will keep the powder dry until the market says its ready...
  • #50,910
  • Jun 11, 2020 4:10pm Jun 11, 2020 4:10pm
Quoting montygoldy
deep pockets saves the day... held my yesterday longs....added more on the bottom as well....target is open...
not heard from since

?????

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #50,911
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:16pm Jun 11, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} not heard from since ?????
Ah come on. This is just nasty, is there any need? Trading is hard enough alone, we don’t need infighting.

For what it’s worth anyway, I think Monty will be a great trader.
  • #50,912
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:29pm Jun 11, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} not heard from since ?????
what u want to hear? lol... thousands of times i have losses.... if i may tell u i am not a full time trader... i have a day job...so some days are busy n some days are chill... when its chill i post alot... Otherwise i am not here to validate i am super awesome trader.... I win n i lose.... the only thing matter is overall i am profitable n get money in account.... n Even everyone is here is to make money... rather than focusing on other people wins or losses... we should be motivating and helping each other...
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #50,913
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:30pm Jun 11, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Ah come on. This is just nasty, is there any need? Trading is hard enough alone, we don’t need infighting. For what it’s worth anyway, I think Monty will be a great trader.
Thanks neo for motivation.. and good words....
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #50,914
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:56pm Jun 11, 2020 5:56pm
Put in a long 25260, low risk more for fun.
  • #50,915
  • Jun 11, 2020 6:04pm Jun 11, 2020 6:04pm
Out for +100, could probably rise loads overnight but I don’t really care. Not taking risks and sleeping soon.
  • #50,916
  • Jun 11, 2020 6:10pm Jun 11, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting montygoldy
{quote} Thanks neo for motivation.. and good words....
Actually scratch that... you are a great trader and pull some big numbers.

All you need to do is keep 90% of your capital for these moments and you’ll profit more than you already do.

That’s the difficult bit for everyone. Being patient. When you learn to sit on your hands until there’s a bloodbath; that’s when you make real money. So easy.

Buy low sell high everyone. That’s all there is to it. Guess what the market is now? Low! Guess what everyone else is doing? Licking their wounds because they bought at the top and got stopped out.
  • #50,917
  • Jun 12, 2020 3:49am Jun 12, 2020 3:49am
Went long 25648 on the breakout. It's an early play, price hasn't proved it's going to hold upside momentum yet. It will probably retest.

Vix down 10% in pre-market, Bonds down. 200ma wasn't broken on the daily nor 4hr for the S&P. Could be wrong but at the moment it seems like a classic retest.
  • #50,918
  • Edited 4:17am Jun 12, 2020 3:57am | Edited 4:17am
Took these snapshots yesterday at 1am. Thought it’s telling that US indices didn’t drop below the 200ma, while Bonds, which are inversely correlated to equities, failed to break above.

That could change in the coming hours or days, but if it doesn’t you know we are bullish.

The Vix breaking out is also a huge curveball.
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  • #50,919
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:05am Jun 12, 2020 4:05am
Quoting Neogenesis
Took these snapshots yesterday at market close. Thought it’s telling that US indices didn’t drop below the 200ma, while Bonds, which are inversely correlated to equities, failed to break above. That could change in the coming hours or days, but if it doesn’t you we are bullish. The Vix breaking out is also a huge curveball. {image} {image} {image}
your reasoning is very interesting. thanks for sharing your thoughts here!
  • #50,920
  • Jun 12, 2020 7:19am Jun 12, 2020 7:19am
Let's see if it holds.. need to see price sustain
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