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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #2,341
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:21pm Jun 8, 2020 3:21pm
Just few trades today, 50/50 win lose - but much bigger winners than losers!
Ok so this one was not strictly according to the cross/fail rules but I have seen it done here (by Laura I think!) and looking back left I could see that the kiss of the SMA by bars outside of the channel had worked before and sure enough it worked again, TP at PD High

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As an aside I find that using bars rather than candles keeps Laura's strategy separate from my normal Price Action/commodity/daily trend in my mind - along with one on the 4hr and one on the 15mins the same instruments look completely different.

Slightly OT but Turnip - I know you said your open line had gone but did you have ADR lines today - mine disappeared ! Tradingview must have changed something...
  • #2,342
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:11pm Jun 8, 2020 4:11pm
Just finished my analysis of the daily charts - nothing of interest that I can see.
  • #2,343
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:36pm Jun 8, 2020 4:36pm
Quoting Wightoil
Slightly OT but Turnip - I know you said your open line had gone but did you have ADR lines today - mine disappeared ! Tradingview must have changed something...
I encountered the same challenge...just when started to fall in love with them....they left me..
  • #2,344
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:46pm Jun 8, 2020 4:46pm
Some of today's trades

USDCAD - Was hoping for ADR low, when price started moving back up the previous low, closed the position. Before that took 50% off when price bounced off of the previous low.
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EURNZD - Entry was very late, missed the ADR low by few pips - should have closed there, instead closed when the price broke above the trendline.
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NZDUSD - Was hoping for ADR high, after a while lost patience and exited when price stalled around the same area and of course later it did go very close to ADR high missing by few pips
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NASDAQ Futures - Missed the descending price action, exit for the loss, did not draw the trendline earlier
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Dow Futures - Couple of good trades and some messed up exits(marked in the box) which resulted in loss, nett is profit
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  • #2,345
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:46pm Jun 8, 2020 4:46pm
Quoting oradba
{quote} Here's a trade I am currently in. Note that the SMA200 is all in the same direction (momentum). Note the RSI (more momentum). I simply followed Laura's rules from there. TP is the DayLo, SL is approximately the ADR high on the D1 (H1 is shown). I have found it better to pick my stop from the D1 timeframe and confirm my target on H1. When I hit my first TP, I take off half of my position and let the rest run. If it gets to 50 pips or more, I will set a trailing SL, either 7.5 or ten pips, depending on what I think I am seeing in regard to...
Thanks for sharing....very intriguing!
  • #2,346
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:32pm Jun 8, 2020 6:32pm
Hi all

Just thought I'd post this trade that I took earlier... not necessarily because it was a good trade but more that it may help one or two in highlighting the risks of trading the Roadmap strategy when price is in a defined range. I've been guilty of it myself and I've seen others post some losing trades resulting from entries where a trend has not been established. Thankfully we've had Laura to point us in the direction when making these mistakes. Although the entry signal of a channel cross along with the required MTF and RSI criteria maybe present, I've learnt from many here that it's important to "look left".

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The green area identifies the range where the price is trending. The MTF and RSI both supported long entries throughout.
If an entry was taken at the first channel cross it was likely you would be stopped out as the channel crossed back over the SMA. You may have taken 10 pips with a good entry inside the EMA channel but there was no obvious reason why the the area at 10 pips profit would be a price target when entering the trade (ie no current resistance level there, no previous day high or ADR high). The second cross of the channel above the SMA reverses almost immediately and would result in being stopped out. There are also some channel failures that may have been taken and also resulted in losses.
As the channel crossed a third time, the resistance level is tested a third time. Entry before this resistance is broken is risky. By waiting for price to break resistance, come back and test it then move higher we have a higher probability entry.

I accepted that my first profit level (yesterday's high) only gave me ~15 pips but I was happy with my risk:reward.
My second profit target was ADR high and third was at 0.88000 (previous area of strong support and significant number). I reached my first target and then exited the trade when my TL was broken. As I write this, price is of course moving higher (I'm still working on staying in winning trades a bit longer)!

Anyway, I hope this helps as an example of the importance of looking left and checking the trend, support & resistance after getting the Roadmap trade entry signals.

Thanks

James
  • #2,347
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:35pm Jun 8, 2020 9:35pm
Quoting LauraT
{image} Closed an oil trade for +45. Price had previously broken Daily Open Line and then thought about going back to re-test it but edged back down. Entered short. My exit was 3 bars too late as I should have been out on the spike in my favour for around +60 but, oh well
Hi,Laura
It seems that the oil's RSI value is always above 55.
Which conditions will you trade ignoring RSI?
  • #2,348
  • Jun 9, 2020 1:46am Jun 9, 2020 1:46am
Quoting bgy2jd
Hi all Just thought I'd post this trade that I took earlier... not necessarily because it was a good trade but more that it may help one or two in highlighting the risks of trading the Roadmap strategy when price is in a defined range...
Nice post, I like how you have broken it down. I need to work on making sure I define trends myself, and have also been trying to wait for channels and areas of resistance to be broken and tested before entry.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #2,349
  • Jun 9, 2020 1:53am Jun 9, 2020 1:53am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi,Laura It seems that the oil's RSI value is always above 55. Which conditions will you trade ignoring RSI?
Hi

1m trades on indices/oil ignore the RSI.
  • #2,350
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:04am Jun 9, 2020 2:04am
Hi, Laura,
AUD/USD reached ADR Low. RSI above 50. Any way of catching these runs ?or is it risky against RSI ?

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Consistency & Patience
  • #2,351
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:12am Jun 9, 2020 3:12am
Quoting coolsjc
Hi, Laura, AUD/USD reached ADR Low. RSI above 50. Any way of catching these runs ?or is it risky against RSI ? {image}
Hi

Just had a look at the live chart so I'm saying this with benefit of hindsight.

But, although you were right to have it on your radar due to high RSI, you want to avoid instruments where price just shoots through ADR High/Low - ideally we're looking for instances where price reacts to that level and heads back above/below it. That said, it might be a decent trade later in the day, depending on price action.
  • #2,352
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:15am Jun 9, 2020 3:15am
Quoting bgy2jd
Hi all Just thought I'd post this trade that I took earlier... not necessarily because it was a good trade but more that it may help one or two in highlighting the risks of trading the Roadmap strategy...
Excellent analysis. Thanks
  • #2,353
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:29am Jun 9, 2020 3:29am
First two trades today have panned out well

First, CADJPY, short run from the S1 pivot (which isn't shown on the chart) to the ADR low
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USDCAD, another short blast after break and rejection of YH, retrace into EMA channel, up to the ADR High/R2 Pivot

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #2,354
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:15am Jun 9, 2020 4:15am
Quoting bgy2jd
Hi all Just thought I'd post this trade that I took earlier... not necessarily because it was a good trade but more that it may help one or two in highlighting the risks of trading the Roadmap strategy when price is in a defined range. James
Normally when I see a choppy ranging market like that, unless I am on the Daily, I just move right along to the the next pair so it was interesting to look at the structure from a different point of view. This was a useful analysis and summed it up well, thanks for the work on it.
  • #2,355
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:29am Jun 9, 2020 4:29am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Just had a look at the live chart so I'm saying this with benefit of hindsight. But, although you were right to have it on your radar due to high RSI, you want to avoid instruments where price just shoots through ADR High/Low - ideally we're looking for instances where price reacts to that level and heads back above/below it. That said, it might be a decent trade later in the day, depending on price action.
Hi Laura,
Is it the advance trade - ADR Counters ? with the support of RSI ?

Thanks.
Consistency & Patience
  • #2,356
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:31am Jun 9, 2020 4:31am
Phew! So I was on page 15 when this thread was on it's 100th page. I however took the pains to read it till the end, thanks to lockdown and working from home. Bravo Laura!

Okay from what I've observed so far, it seems a lot of traders here are just getting lucky in the market using this strategy with exception to a few who do know what they're doing. Now don't take this the wrong way, the reason I say this is because some of you are trying to trade like Laura which is good but what Laura perhaps forgot to tell you is, trading has a lot to do with intuition and intuition comes with experience which Laura has and some of you don't.

Intuition in trading is when you've taken a type of trade over and over again and it went a certain way, so when you see that trade again your mind tells you the trade would indeed repeat itself and most times it does.

Therefore my little contribution would be to show you how to build intuition, more like a shortcut using the roadmap to train your mind to identify winning trades, definitely not 100% wins but enough to increase the odds in your favour.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #2,357
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:35am Jun 9, 2020 4:35am
Quoting coolsjc
{quote} Hi Laura, Is it the advance trade - ADR Counters ? with the support of RSI ? Thanks.
Yes, that's right.
  • #2,358
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:39am Jun 9, 2020 4:39am
Quoting calebfx
Phew! So I was on page 15 when this thread was on it's 100th page. I however took the pains to read it till the end, thanks to lockdown and working from home. Bravo Laura! Okay from what I've observed so far, it seems a lot of traders here are just getting lucky in the market using this strategy with exception to a few who do know what they're doing. Now don't take this the wrong way, the reason I say this is because some of you are trying to trade like Laura which is good but what Laura perhaps forgot to tell you is, trading has a lot to do with...
Well done for working through the whole thread

You're right, trading this way has become natural for me so I sometimes struggle to explain what I do and why I do it.
  • #2,359
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:59am Jun 9, 2020 4:59am
Dax this morning gave a few pips -nice Laura type lines to guide trade. Note that dax does not always roll nicely like the picture. Normally it swings about allowing bites for profit here and there. But a good morning anyway. Back for US session later BUT note several RED denoted meetings on the FF calendar pertaining to the USA. Be careful or stand aside.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,360
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:14am Jun 9, 2020 5:14am
I was just looking at a chart of the E/J ( One Minute Time Frame ) which piqued my interest.
Has anyone traded the E/J via Laura's approach over a period of time ?
If so - what were your impressions of it as a solo daily trading vehicle?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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