Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2501 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,001
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:33pm Jun 8, 2020 1:33pm
Quoting billytt
its been good so far in here, and we have all progressed, or 99% have
With the help of mrc that was more fun than trading cable.
  • #50,002
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:36pm Jun 8, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting billytt
Right ,we start again. this is what happened today. at 00-00 we had an open at 12697. Place the adr high/low black line on the open price below {image} above, this is the area we can expect but not guarantee price to go. AND YES, i do not know which direction price will travel. below, let 00-00 4 hour bar close, then place adr black lines high/low area on highest/lowest part of bar. {image} Now let it break. {image} low broke, we are short., now what happens below {image} by the time that last bar had closed , i was out Forget i was trading 2 hour...
as for the above post. i am SHOUTING IT OUT, that adr is SPECIAL, or even part of it.

If i fail on the 08-00 or even the 00-00 that adr will sort it out. ((Most times)) if not we have tomorrow.
it works.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,003
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:38pm Jun 8, 2020 1:38pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} With the help of mrc that was more fun than trading cable.
yes, Mr C has definitely added a bit of flair in here.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,004
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:39pm Jun 8, 2020 1:39pm
Billy sounds like such a nice bloke, I'd like to take him for a ride on the back of my scooter.....obviously after I've made enough money trading to afford one!
This one looks like fun
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lambretta.jpg Size: 188 KB

EDIT: CONGRATS BILLY! Blooming marvellous thread!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,005
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:41pm Jun 8, 2020 1:41pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} T hasn't been about today.
If you need an income but cannot trade profitably - DON'T 'kin trade !
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,006
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:43pm Jun 8, 2020 1:43pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} If you need an income but cannot trade profitably - DON'T 'kin trade ! {image}
Take it you've read today's drama.
  • #50,007
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:46pm Jun 8, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting mrcreosote
Billy sounds like such a nice bloke, I'd like to take him for a ride on the back of my scooter.....obviously after I've made enough money trading to afford one! This one looks like fun {image}
Wow ! Someone nicked Billie's scooter.
Bad move chum - gnome one can help you now
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,008
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:52pm Jun 8, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Take it you've read today's drama.
On standby here Claudia, awaiting further instructions on this system you were referring to earlier, if you're still willing to share .

Congratulations Billy on making sure you posted comment number 50,000.
  • #50,009
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:53pm Jun 8, 2020 1:53pm
Quoting billytt
who mentioned screen watching,>???? Mr C,,, i have thousands of hours screen watching. i still do it
You can be arrested for that you know.
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,010
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:55pm Jun 8, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} On standby here Claudia, awaiting further instructions on this system you were referring to earlier, if you're still willing to share . Congratulations Billy on making sure you posted comment number 50,000.
I will do. Lem sort of beat me to it with his 'farmyard post'. Thought that would keep everyone busy for a while. I will post in the morning.
  • #50,011
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:22pm Jun 8, 2020 2:22pm
Regarding backtesting. Is there is way to see if price action would have FIRST triggered a potential stop loss BEFORE reaching my potential take profit? So in retrospect? I try to comprehend if last 20 days trades would have produced profitable results or not, based on my entry/exit criteria for the 08:00 setup bar for GBP/USD M15.

I know there are some market replay / trade simulators. I tested some for MT4 (non commercial) as well as NinjaTrader but could not managed to get them work properly. I am also not sure how trustworthy this would be even when using quality historical tick data from either the broker or other sources.
  • #50,012
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:35pm Jun 8, 2020 2:35pm
get a chart, and check it manually going back in time, my data went back approx 20 years...

just viewing you see many things, or is it just me? its like reading a book

edit, and history is history.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,013
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:41pm Jun 8, 2020 2:41pm
Quoting mrcreosote
Billy sounds like such a nice bloke, I'd like to take him for a ride on the back of my scooter.....obviously after I've made enough money trading to afford one! This one looks like fun {image} EDIT: CONGRATS BILLY! Blooming marvellous thread!
i am a nice bloke,until i am upset by someone.
i don't really like the type who ride scooters lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,014
  • Edited 5:01pm Jun 8, 2020 4:15pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting lemercenaire
Ok, so how about 'dem Ducks? You'd kind of think that as they cover the shorter time frames, they would be more accurate, right? Well, let's see. Duck #1 - H4 Long Bias {image} Duck #2 - H1 Mixed Signal. Mixed, you say? How's that happen?
@Lem. Yes i see, applying the 60 SMA and using this as a filter to skip on trades which are in contradiction with H1 and H4 here sounds sweet BUT.

I had a look at it. From what i see so far, by applying (only long trades if price above SMA H1/H4 & only short trades if price below SMA H1/H4) as a way to filter out a few potential losing trades.

Yes it did help filtering out a some losers. BUT at least same as much passed trades here, could have been won too...

Trades for the last last 34 Trading Days (08:00 Bar)

Trades Won (marked by GREEN vertical line) = 8
Trades Lost (marked by RED vertical line) = 12
Trades Passed (marked by GRAY vertical line ) = 14

The trades which could have been won, reached somewhere between 5-10 Pips on average but would have been erased by passed / lost ones.

So don't know but trading this one setup at 08:00 for GU doesn't looks like a solution for me to constantly achieve some positive result by the end of a month with trading only one currency pair at a time by limiting my risk as well as making some money.

Maybe its also just that bad for the last 34 days. I didn't look back much further for now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #50,015
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:32pm Jun 8, 2020 4:32pm
Quoting billytt
get a chart, and check it manually going back in time, my data went back approx 20 years... just viewing you see many things, or is it just me? its like reading a book edit, and history is history.
Above all maintain social distancing to avoid the new localised Pandemic. Face mask may help; or dark glasses or switching off the Pc for a week.
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,016
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:58pm Jun 8, 2020 4:58pm
Quoting lemercenaire
I do tell you now, however, that reading the sneering implications of your post there, is rapidly ticking me off. Nobody here owes anyone any proof of sod-all. I think you'll be waiting a good while yet before anyone here takes you up on your offer of a beer.
I didn't ask for any kind of proof and the offer for a beer was meant without any further intent. If you are ticking off because of my words, i am sorry to hear that., you might try spending some weeks away from the forum, then it won't happen.

I know my questions might be boring, repeating or annoying for some of you but there is always a way to just ignore it. I hadn't the luck of a brother in a hedge fund or any kind of real live instructions by another trader.

Will try sticking to just specific trading relevant questions (if at all). Good night.
  • #50,017
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:15pm Jun 8, 2020 6:15pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote}

My writing, which was one of those other professions for a while, ................
That explains your keenness to post and our even greater keenness to read what you post!

Thanks to you and Billy and other participants, from covid -'free' NZ.
  • #50,018
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:53pm Jun 8, 2020 8:53pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} @Lem. Yes i see, applying the 60 SMA and using this as a filter to skip on trades which are in contradiction with H1 and H4 here sounds sweet BUT. I had a look at it. From what i see so far, by applying (only long trades if price above SMA H1/H4 & only short trades if price below SMA H1/H4) as a way to filter out a few potential losing trades. Yes it did help filtering out a some losers. BUT at least same as much passed trades here, could have been won too... Trades for the last last 34 Trading Days (08:00 Bar) Trades Won (marked by GREEN...
Hi Idd,

below is backtesting data that I did for April and May. without using any filter. With the distribution of the data below, it is true that if there is a loss then profits for a few days will be lost, but im sure we can recover losing trade by compunding...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 50 KB
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #50,019
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:03pm Jun 8, 2020 9:03pm
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} Hi Idd, below is backtesting data that I did for April and May. without using any filter. With the distribution of the data below, it is true that if there is a loss then profits for a few days will be lost, but im sure we can recover losing trade by compunding... {image}
I wonder what the stats would be if you threw just one back to back losing days? Or, 2 back to back losing days about 3 or 4 days apart. Or, how about 3 losing days in a row? I'm not sure what your compounding strategy is after you lose 2 in a row. Billy compounds after wins and not losses. He'll compound 3 trades after the first win. So 4 in a row total. For example, 1 lot on the initial trade. This is when he starts his 3 in a row. The 2nd trade in the sequence would be 2 lots, then the 3rd trade would be 4 lots and then the final and 4th trade would be for 8 lots. After that he goes back down to 1 lot. Then he goes and buys a house.
  • #50,020
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:33pm Jun 8, 2020 11:33pm
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} Hi Idd, below is backtesting data that I did for April and May. without using any filter. With the distribution of the data below, it is true that if there is a loss then profits for a few days will be lost, but im sure we can recover losing trade by compunding... {image}
I am impressed bud, with stats, you can develop ideas?
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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