Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2496 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,901
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:39am Jun 8, 2020 5:39am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Yep very naughty ! I have adr at 95 on 5 day but that includes Sunday. Doesn't matter too much.
adr, correct. we do not trade exact amounts.
Only an actual break in my case.
looks like e/u might be out of the box, or very close.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,902
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:40am Jun 8, 2020 5:40am
Quoting Nikl
{quote} No scratch that I've just matched my pivots with Claudias and they're very similar Cheers
If they're similar the difference is probably just spread.
  • #49,903
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:40am Jun 8, 2020 5:40am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Yep very naughty ! I have adr at 95 on 5 day but that includes Sunday. Doesn't matter too much.
and another, always look for 70ish on a bad day, as you probably know.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,904
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:42am Jun 8, 2020 5:42am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Never hurts to add another method coming from an experienced trader Claudia. I'm all ears too if you're willing to share
Sure. I will post after NY open.
  • #49,905
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:43am Jun 8, 2020 5:43am
Butt coin creeping back to the 10.
  • #49,906
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:58am Jun 8, 2020 5:58am
oops.
I said Cable had made the ADR, it hasn't, it is approx. 30 away.
But I am done.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,907
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:08am Jun 8, 2020 6:08am
e/u 2 hour chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 08 D.png Size: 17 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,908
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:13am Jun 8, 2020 6:13am
Quoting billytt
oops. I said Cable had made the ADR, it hasn't, it is approx. 30 away. But I am done.
Hi Billy,

quick question abt ADR...

based on your sytem, what will happen when a pair reached their ADR? Will there be a reversal? or price just moves slowly?
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #49,909
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:14am Jun 8, 2020 6:14am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes Claudia thanks, but as far as i didnīt understand how the counter trade / hedging part would be done properly if the trade retraces back on me, i thought some kind of SL would be better instead of having it run against me until my account is empty Also it doesnīt explain what to do if the trade (counter / hedge or not) then just goes into consolidation again hitting no TP at both ends, no TP with the counter, no TP with the original trade.
Here's an exercise for when you have some spare time - look at the 8am-8:15am bar break over the past say 6 months to 1 year. Only focus on the fails. Then look at the break on the other side (so an opposite break). You will hopefully see that if it breaks and fails, the other side will make up for your loss. If you have 2 fails, just take a deep breath, and walk away. Tomorrow is another day. I have seen it break 6-7 times in one day before. All fails. Which is why 2 or 3 breaks is the magic number.

Whilst this method works as it is, most of the money Billy etc make is when it fails on the 1st break. Chasing the ADR. Say you have 2 fails on 1 day and you are now minus 30 pips. This is when you might consider using the 4 hour break on GU, or the dead zone methods Lem uses. Or Claudia's pivot attack lol. I have been through the thread a few times and always find useful info. For example there are points where Billy talks about compounding for a number of days. Day 1 is a win. Day 2, double your lot size and hopefully you'll win again. If you lose, assume you won and on day 3, increase your lot size again. And I think he does it up to day 4, and then resets. Some other kind soul has already done the legwork for us and given us stats that in the past year, the Billy bar has failed 3 days in a row. Never 4. With a 70% win rate, and stats to show it hasn't failed 4 times in a row in the past year, some compounding will help you get out of any possible drawdown. Hopefully all of this info is useful.
  • #49,910
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:19am Jun 8, 2020 6:19am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Arghhhhhhhh... "...it doesn't explain...'' It..does...nothing. You have...wait for it...wait for it... A floating loss. It...doesn't...get...any...bigger. THEN you unwind it with whatever method - voodoo, roll of the dice, pin the tail on the donkey, whatever. The counter trade, the long to your original short is the one that locks it in. The second trigger is...? Ho hum.
Unfortunately, I don't quite understand your kind of humor...

Cool for you if you mastered everything and making a killing with trading. But actually these are the kind of answers why i left the TMS topic.

Anyways.
  • #49,911
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:20am Jun 8, 2020 6:20am
Quoting Nikl
{quote} I've got my head round it now! the 04-00 bar starts at 11-00 for me (7 hours in front) When I'm calculating Daily Pivots do I use the OHLC of the UK Daily bar? Cheers Nick
Re: pivot points..I think Claudia would know...Lem & Billy too.!!
Onwards and upwards...
  • #49,912
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:20am Jun 8, 2020 6:20am
Here, that might help to describe the problematic i see/have when trading. Picture might be better than written words...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m15-fxopen-investments-inc.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #49,913
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:25am Jun 8, 2020 6:25am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Here's an exercise for when you have some spare time - look at the 8am-8:15am bar break over the past say 6 months to 1 year. Only focus on the fails. Then look at the break on the other side (so an opposite break). You will hopefully see that if it breaks and fails, the other side will make up for your loss. If you have 2 fails, just take a deep breath, and walk away. Tomorrow is another day. I have seen it break 6-7 times in one day before. All fails. Which is why 2 or 3 breaks is the magic number. Whilst this method works as it is, most...
Thanks. Yes, thats what i think too. I will backtest GU for some time to check what you say.
  • #49,914
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:38am Jun 8, 2020 6:38am
Quoting lddd
Here, that might help to describe the problematic i see/have when trading. Picture might be better than written words... {image}
This happens, but thankfully not too often. Now take a look at the 9am 1 hour GU bar break as well.
  • #49,915
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:38am Jun 8, 2020 6:38am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Re: pivot points..I think Claudia would know...Lem & Billy too.!!
Hi SF - looks like premier league due to start again.
  • #49,916
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:48am Jun 8, 2020 6:48am
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} Hi Billy, quick question abt ADR... based on your sytem, what will happen when a pair reached their ADR? Will there be a reversal? or price just moves slowly?
Good question.
Quite often, a pair making the adr will retrace, Not Always but it happens.
I do not have stats for it.
Secondly, when I either fix a fail or playfully chase the adr, I Only Take Part of it..
Sometimes, it gets to adr and keeps going and going.
My adr is slightly different than others, example as Claudia said earlier,
But being a few points different is ok.
ADR IS VERY IMPORTANT.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,917
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:49am Jun 8, 2020 6:49am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Here's an exercise for when you have some spare time - look at the 8am-8:15am bar break over the past say 6 months to 1 year. Only focus on the fails. Then look at the break on the other side (so an opposite break). You will hopefully see that if it breaks and fails, the other side will make up for your loss. If you have 2 fails, just take a deep breath, and walk away. Tomorrow is another day. I have seen it break 6-7 times in one day before. All fails. Which is why 2 or 3 breaks is the magic number. Whilst this method works as it is, most...
Good Post, you have the idea, your noting Stats.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,918
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:55am Jun 8, 2020 6:55am
Was this you, Billy? The Forrest Fenn treasure has been found at last.
  • #49,919
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:57am Jun 8, 2020 6:57am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Profit and set and forget is not boring ..haha...!!! Can you enlighten me on a few details please ..??? BTW we had a gr8 day thanks
On Buy Zone? Yeah sure, I'll bung something up later when I get the chance. It's Tech so you know where to go for more details later if you think it may suit but we can talk in sign language till then.
  • #49,920
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:59am Jun 8, 2020 6:59am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} This happens, but thankfully not too often. Now take a look at the 9am 1 hour GU bar break as well.
Thanks, i already closed my trading platform. The reasons for it, i said earlier. I did that in the past. 1 Trade lost, keep on looking, next trade lost, keep on looking, next one ... keep on looking. There is no end. And in days you feel already stressed or so you easily end up in a -100 Pips where the rules said only 1 trade needed to make +5 Pips.

I want to stick to that routine first and only concentrade on that UK open GU setup at 08-15. See how that goes for me.

But even with a 70% win rate i need to do some kind of protection.

That a stop loss of -5 or -10 pips probably wonīt work i could have said earlier... But people here said something like "go for it" and report So with that kind of fixed stop loss on each trade it would probably give a negative win rate instead at after the next 30 days trying so.

I will still have to protect me some how and as long i didnīt understand how to hedge these "fails" a SL is better than nothing. I might test a -20 Pips or so tomorrow instead. That might reduce the number of losing trades. But in case of 3 days lost in a row as example this would be already a -60 Pips.

I would need 12 days to win (in a row) already with TP +5 to just make back to break even.

Hedge and doubling in after the losers sounds ok if you know what you are doing. But it more looks like to me like a martin gale approach then. I used to have martin gale EA, they went good for some time 2-3 years, one is still ok doing 2-3% a month, but at some day you will blow up you account with something like that where you suddenly realize a much longer losing period instead of what ever calculated with your nice backtesting...
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