USD/JPY Discussion

Initial thoughts
The Yen will be under some pressure with the opec news
China seem to have a vaccine- this will boost equities- as long as its not rubbish
So for me initally AUDJPY or CADJPY looks a buy - might be some stops up there to chase.
CAD figures were decent on Friday
Shame there is not a decent price
China does have a data release due out on Sunday -

gross pressure remain bull , a ranging bottom formation may waste some time to do that . take care

If you are tracking the USDJPY this week, consider this technical perspective. On the H4 time frame, price action is disposed positively. However, the increase in the number of bearish candlesticks indicates a decline in bullish momentum or the emergence of bearish pressure. We may see a pullback of price action in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Please consider taking a look at my analysis. USD/JPY starts at 7:14. I upload weekly analysis every Sunday and daily analysis from TUE to FRI.

So much better when you tell us here vs promoting your youtube channel

This looks like a pullback of the overall trend. i mentioned 108 before. IMHO we were supposed to stop at 109.2-109.4, and pull back there before the move up, but then miraculous news appeared. Not everyone was ready, So there may still be orders down there that need filling. None of the higher frames have flags. Only the 15m fortold this dip. So... dip it is, not a reversal.

I have reassessed the above. We are back in the channel. Plus my big money thoughts below


EDIT. Looking at the 1hr this looks kinda like 107? Nah right?

Good Morning all. For a while now I have been working on identifying bank and Hedge fund movements. Something occurred to me last night as I considered that move up higher. Let's analyze the candles.

Looking at the chart we see hugely bullish candles circled here. Why are these important? Most would say that these are strong trend candles showing bullish sentiment. I am starting to have a different opinion. I am in IT, and have worked in many a hedge fund, bank, and the like. It is my specialty. Recently I worked at a bank, and was passed on for permanency even with glowing letters of communication. Why? I never hid the fact I traded Forex. It took me a while to figure out why, but I think I know it now. The reason was these very candles I am looking at. These two full, large, proud candles. Now what we know about candles is this. The body represents open and closing prices. The tails represent unrealized orders. So these candles represent a HUGE amount of REALIZED orders. Who has this many orders? Banks and Hedge funds. So. We have now identified that this is where they got into the game. Now to determine what they did...



The candle is bullish. So.. they BOUGHT.. right? One thing about financial firms that I can tell you is this. They don't do retail. By that I mean they (Unlike the average Joe, do NOT spend top dollar). INDIVIDUALS chase price up. Institutions let it go. Why? Because the guy trading the instrument isn't trading his own money. So there is no NEED to be in the trade. No FOMO. Who has that? The little guy. So.. Looking a this candle. As it went up. What happened to the price? It went UP right? Is this conducive to our knowledge of what business and hedge funds and the like do? No. SO.. In this situation. How would they end up paying the LEAST? By SELLING! They came in, and sold, and as price went UP, it cost them less and less to get in. This is a work in progress, but I think I may be on to something. Let's see because there are two areas like this. If I am right about this, the trip to 107 looks very well telegraphed. After all... again. THEY don't scalp. We do.

Thank you. I am working on being a 36th Chamber trader lol

Hey Joy... Where was the neck on that butterfly?

There you go, bat completion
Banked and closed 30ish pips before Tp1. I will look for another entry probably around 108.5 or 108.7 after Tokyo starts if the price action allows.

Cheers

If this is true we are clear until 107.66 at least where those first bullish candles appeared, but if my assessment is spot on... then I will have to look again once we clear 107 to determine where their targets are.

Thanks. Look into ZUP148. Do a side by side... It is free. If you are renting that that is.

Thanks bud,

I tried zup and other indicators but I found them very unreliable. I keep this one on one of my screens for extra confirmation since it is live and with immediate updates and changes I found it pretty accurate, especially on bigger time frames.
But at the end we never know what the market will do next, all we know is what we CAN control which is only the risk.

Cheers!!

Possible flag on the 4hr. Next candle may be the same. News @ 6am Est.

now as limit down for up breaks likely test tl 107.51 & may breaks down towards previous low even to start UP.watching

correcting gold towards 1570 may keep usdjpy up weekly tf .https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...5#post12991565

10 am Jolts Job openings. If it follows the May Jobs numbers... boom. If not... Bohica.

Indicators appear to be showing oversold. Right before the May Jobs report they all showed overbought. So anyone using one would most likely have sold right before the news if they didn't know it was coming out. Reason number 4080 I don't use them to actually place trades.

I see usdjpy going up as long it doesn't break 107

All Targets hit. Currently flat on this pair. Done for the day, may look at the charts after FOMC.

Cheers!

This is a very interesting spot for us to be in pre FED announcement. Interesting because we have what many consider to be strong support below at 107 region. There is a high probability of this being a bear trap. In the past we dipped below it to 106.9 before turning around. JUST enough to excite people who use lower time frames into thinking things are going south. I will be looking for a large and bearish candle. More than likely on the 15m that may take us to the 106.4 area IF it moves below 107. I don't see it staying there though. The last FEE announcement loosely followed this model. My only problem with this assessment is that it contradicts my earlier one where I said that the banks came in and sold the 107.66 area. However if it does go to the 106.4 area. That would validate that assessment to the tune of 100 pips, AND leave room for that big red candle where they BUY in for the ride uptown. Either way a trader is fluid, so be prepared.

I am a bear all week

107 is probably the bottom